Possible three-way race, Clinton/Bush/Trump

[pbrower2a]

I begin with a blank map.  

Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Trump (I)

[pbrower2a]

No. Please God, no. Not here. Moderators, do something.

See what I do before you do something rash.

Could it become irrelevant? Of course -- if Trump drops out completely -- or of course if he wins the Republican nomination. It will be a while before either happens.

Results are likely to be similar if one replaces Clinton with Saders or  Bush with any other Republican (other than Trump).

[pbrower2a]

Missouri (PPP)
 
Clinton 34%
Trump 30%
Bush 29%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-leads-republicans-in-mo-gop-field-leads-clinton.html
North Carolina (PPP)

Clinton (D)......................... 38%
Bush (R)............................ 28%
Trump (I)............................27%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/trump-grows-lead-in-nc-gop-leads-most-match-ups.html

Clinton wins two states that the Republican nominee absolutely must wins in this scenario.

OK -- the first-place/second-place margins matter more than the lead.  For each state in which the leader has less than 50% I can show the margin where one expects the electoral vote.  

Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Trump (I)

...I will make the second map the norm.

[pbrower2a]

If you want to do something long and excruciating, like this, please do it in Election What-Ifs.

No deal.

The history of legalization of SSM is now a historical reality. "What if" is for an event that never happened and never will... let us say a projection of the 1968 Presidential election between Robert F. Kennedy (assassinated), Barry Goldwater (not nominated) and George Wallace (who really did run). I promise to close this thread if it becomes irrelevant -- for example, should Donald Trump make a firm promise to support any Republican nominee.

...At this point I can't see any Republican doing better than Bush or a Democrat doing much worse than Clinton.  

[pbrower2a]

I am oddly OK with this so long as we don't get bad analysis to go with it. We realize if Clinton doesn't get 270, it will go to the GOP house. And a 4 point lead in Missouri won't result in any strategic voting during a 3-way race? For once I'll say, go ahead pbrower, just don't draw any infuriatingly misguided conclusions from data that is guaranteed to change.

I promise -- I won't do any crazy analysis.

Polling reality will change as perceptions change.

[pbrower2a]

So this thread is simply intended to include a map with the state-by-state polling results for Bush/Clinton/Trump?  You already have the "official polling map" thread on the polling board for that kind of thing.  Just use that.

The official polling map has begun to have trouble as the 2016 Presidential election has itself become more complicated due to a widening of the field should it remain a 'simple' binary race. 

Here we have a three-way race, a very different critter.  I think this is better kept separate from the "official polling map" which could get very messy very fast. This map, so far, is reasonably neat.   

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

If Trump makes a third-party run, results are:

    Florida - Clinton at 37 percent, with 36 percent for Bush and 19 percent for Trump;
    Ohio - Clinton over Bush 37 - 27 percent, with 23 percent for Trump;
    Pennsylvania - Clinton tops Bush 37 - 29 percent, with Trump at 24 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

To be charitable and cautious I am calling Florida a tie.



Clinton wins three states that the Republican nominee absolutely must win in this scenario to have a chance.

OK -- the first-place/second-place margins matter more than the lead.  For each state in which the leader has less than 50% I can show the margin where one expects the electoral vote.  

Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Trump (I)

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, PPP:

Clinton/Trump/Bush: 43/28/22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/ayottehassan-a-toss-up-clintonsanders-generally-lead-gop-field.html

Clinton (D)
Bush (R)
Trump (I)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, nationwide poll:

Clinton 40%
Bush 24%
Trump 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2274

....Jeb and Trump would be tied for second place in a three-way race? That would be messy.

[pbrower2a]

I hereby close and lock this thread due to its irrelevance.