Best case for GOP Hispanic vote in 2016?

[Likely Voter]

While the Hispanic vote has always favored the Dems, it has varied quite a bit. The one time that the GOP won the PV in the last six elections was also their highest result with Hispanics (at 44%). That year their nominee was an incumbent who didn't have to run in a primary and was supporting comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship. In the last election while the GOP actually improved (vs. 2008) with whites and blacks, things with Hispanics got worse, with Romney only getting 27%.

We are now at the beginnings of a primary season where immigration seems to be a huge issue on the GOP side and terms like illegals, amnesty, deportation, wall, anchor baby, etc. are getting thrown around by all the candidates. And we havent even got to the second debate (remember it was in the debates Mitt Romney vowed to veto the DREAM act and suggested self-deporation for undocumented immigrants).

So, after the dust settles and the GOP has a nominee, and assuming Hillary is the Dem nominee and there are no major new factors (war, depression, scandal, etc) what is their best case scenario with the Hispanic vote?

And what candidate/message/policies could achieve that best case (and survive primaries to win nomination)

[xavier110]

The best they can do is mid-30s.

[Blue3]

They can't get more than 30%.

[ElectionsGuy]

40% is about their ceiling, though I expect them to do less than that, so I voted 35-39%. However, with the recent discussion of changing the 14th amendment to eliminate 'anchor babies', I don't think the GOP appeal is too hot among Hispanic voters, and they will continue to wonder why they can't get more Hispanic votes.

[Crumpets]

30-34% is best-case scenario. I think most likely, they're looking at more like 25-29%.

[Jacobtm]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

[rbt48]

The very best conceivable case would necessitate Donald Trump endorsing Hillary Clinton or, if not her, the eventual Democratic nominee.

[eric82oslo]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

A slight increase? They'd need a monster increase in fact, as the white voter percentage will be down by at least 2% or 3% compared to 2012 - and with a large increase in Hispanic turnout (triggered by Trump's anti-latino rhetoric), it might be in fact by as much as 4%. In that case it would drop from 72% to just 68%. Now we know that Romney lost the election by 4%, despite winning white voters by 20% (59-39). In order to win the election in 2016 then, Trump would have to improve his white margin by at least somewhere between 6% and 10% (if everything else, including states' relative standing to one another, stays the same). If he were successful with that, Trump would in fact do way better with white voters than even Reagan's landslide win in 1984, when he won 49 states, all but Minnesota.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

Here's why your insight is wrong. This is what I consider a reasonable prediction for the electorate in 2016...

White (70%):
Black (12%): 93% D, 6% R
Hispanic (12%): 71% D, 27% R
Asian (4%): 73% D, 25% R
Other (2%): 58% D, 38% R

60% R = 47.7%
61% R = 48.4%
62% R = 49.1%
63% R = 49.8%

By leaving minorities as unchanged from 2012 and plugging in the above for whites, you'd need at least 63% of whites for a convincing win. You can say that Black and Asian voters won't be as democratic as 2012, but still at minimum 62% of whites are needed for a win. And the white share of the electorate will only shrink, so its like running up a steeper and steeper hill. In 2020, you'll need 65%, 2024 you'll need 67%, etc.

[Jacobtm]

So Trump needs to do 4-5% better among whites than Romney did, assuming Dems keep the same share of all other voters.

Romney was awful, in case you forgot. So that seems reasonable.

I would not be surprised to see more minorities vote for Trump than did for Romney either. Just cause Romney sucked and Trump is awesome and the Presidency is nothing but a popularity contest anyway.

[Frodo]

I wonder if George W. Bush would have been better served pushing for immigration reform in 2005 immediately after his re-election rather than trying to partially privatize Social Security.  Would there have been a better likelihood of it passing then instead of in 2007 when he actually did get around to it?  With the White House and Congress under Republican control, the GOP would have gotten all the credit.

[cwt]

40-44%. That's if Jeb gets the nomination.

I think he could win over a lot of Mexican Americans. He seems genuine and empathetic whenever he talks about the Mexican side of his family.

<30% if anyone else gets the nomination.  

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

In 1924 the majority of blacks voted for Calvin Coolidge, who would be considered a radical right-wing extremist today.  40 years later less than 10% of black voters votes for the GOP ticket.  the way people vote changes and people with darker skin can be conservatives too.  And that hashtag represents what is wrong with much of conservatism today.  If we can't make limited government appeal to minorities, conservatism has no future in America.

[Frodo]

And to answer the OP's question, under 25% -the GOP will reach new lows with Donald Trump's views on immigration resonating so strongly with the average Republican that even Jeb Bush is trying to ape him.  

[eric82oslo]

So Trump needs to do 4-5% better among whites than Romney did, assuming Dems keep the same share of all other voters.

Romney was awful, in case you forgot. So that seems reasonable.

I would not be surprised to see more minorities vote for Trump than did for Romney either. Just cause Romney sucked and Trump is awesome and the Presidency is nothing but a popularity contest anyway.

4-5% wouldn't be nearly enough. Remember that Romney lost the electoral college (Colorado & Pennsylvania) by 5.4% in 2012 and that whites only made up 72%. So in order for Romney to win in 2012, he would have needed to win whites by a 27.6% margin instead of 20.0%. If white voters made up only 70% of voters instead (likely 2016 number if latino (and Asian) turnout remains at its historically low 48%), Romney would have needed to win white voters by a 27.8% margin. And if the white percentage was only 68% (likely 2016 percentage with a dramatical increase in latino & Asian turnout), then Romney had needed to win whites by a 28.0% margin.

[Jacobtm]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

In 1924 the majority of blacks voted for Calvin Coolidge, who would be considered a radical right-wing extremist today.  40 years later less than 10% of black voters votes for the GOP ticket.  the way people vote changes and people with darker skin can be conservatives too.  And that hashtag represents what is wrong with much of conservatism today.  If we can't make limited government appeal to minorities, conservatism has no future in America.

This is why the Republican party needs to be destroyed.

"Make limited government appeal to minorities"

You really do not get it, they need and want handouts, they will not vote for a reduction in those handouts.

Classic cuckservative mindset. Go give books on Austrian economics to poor people in the ghetto, then you will win!

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

In 1924 the majority of blacks voted for Calvin Coolidge, who would be considered a radical right-wing extremist today.  40 years later less than 10% of black voters votes for the GOP ticket.  the way people vote changes and people with darker skin can be conservatives too.  And that hashtag represents what is wrong with much of conservatism today.  If we can't make limited government appeal to minorities, conservatism has no future in America.

This is why the Republican party needs to be destroyed.

"Make limited government appeal to minorities"

You really do not get it, they need and want handouts, they will not vote for a reduction in those handouts.

Classic cuckservative mindset. Go give books on Austrian economics to poor people in the ghetto, then you will win!

They voted for limited government during the late 19th and early 20th century.  Republicans still got about a third of the black vote until they decided that it was more important to get the white southern vote and actively alienated blacks.

[Higgs]

I agree with ElectionsGuy, I think 40% is about their ceiling but 35-39% is more likely.

A ticket like Bush/Sandoval or Rubio/Sandoval has the potential to win a good portion of the Hispanic vote.

[Mehmentum]

Republicans should not concern themselves with the Hispanic vote.

Pandering to people who don't like you is worthless, if Republicans improve their white vote share by a small margin, they'll win.

This is the entire point of the #cuckservative hashtag. Pandering to those who hate you and abandoning your base has gotten Republicans sh**t so far, they just need a slight increase in the white vote and they're fine.

In 1924 the majority of blacks voted for Calvin Coolidge, who would be considered a radical right-wing extremist today.  40 years later less than 10% of black voters votes for the GOP ticket.  the way people vote changes and people with darker skin can be conservatives too.  And that hashtag represents what is wrong with much of conservatism today.  If we can't make limited government appeal to minorities, conservatism has no future in America.

This is why the Republican party needs to be destroyed.

"Make limited government appeal to minorities"

You really do not get it, they need and want handouts, they will not vote for a reduction in those handouts.

Classic cuckservative mindset. Go give books on Austrian economics to poor people in the ghetto, then you will win!

They voted for limited government during the late 19th and early 20th century.  Republicans still got about a third of the black vote until they decided that it was more important to get the white southern vote and actively alienated blacks.

The GOP wasn't really a small government party in the 19th and early 20th centuries.  Back then they supported a generally interventionist economic policy to help business: mainly high tarrifs.  They also supported prohibition.  Teddy Roosevelt created the national park system and broke up trusts. 

[mencken]

38%

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/voters-were-just-as-diverse-in-2014-as-they-were-in-2008/

[Liberalrocks]

47%

....kidding.

Their ceiling is likely 40% but I dont see them pulling in any higher then about 30% and likely much much lower with someone like Trump. I honestly disagree with those feeling Bush would somehow do substantially better I see him pulling in the generic 30% range.

[Skye]

I'd say below 40%, with a good candidate without stupid rhetoric (self deportation, amirite??).

If Trump's the nominee, then to Dole's level.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GWB 2004 numbers for Bush/Rubio/Paul/Kasich/Pataki

High 30s for anyone else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

High  30's, they can get more, but Tea party house in states like CO, NV & Pa will depress some of their turnout. But, if Biden is nominee low 30's.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

And to answer the OP's question, under 25% -the GOP will reach new lows with Donald Trump's views on immigration resonating so strongly with the average Republican that even Jeb Bush is trying to ape him.  

I agree. Trump's comments over the last few weeks (and especially those this week that are being trumpeted by other candidates) seem to show that the Republican Party does not care to compete for the Hispanic vote.