Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,144
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« on: August 20, 2015, 03:54:55 PM » |
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Usually, in a rough primary, the serious candidate closest to the other side wins.
See: Carter 1976/1980, Ford 1976, Clinton 1992, Kerry 2004, McCain 2008, Romney 2012.
In 1992, Tsongas was more centrist on economics than Clinton, but socially to his left. The only time the non-closest since primaries began has won were: Reagan 1980(debatatable), Goldwater 1964, Dukakis 1988, and, possibly, Obama 2008.
As you can see, Webb/Kasich would be the most likely to win if they manage to gain ground in early states. Otherwise, they are comparable to Huntsman or Edwards.
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