I think the environment would definitely have to be more than neutral for Baldwin to lose, it would have to lean heavily Republican. Baldwin is no pushover, as evidenced in 2012 when she was supposed to lose badly to Thompson. Granted, that was a presidential year, but I think she has proven herself as a formidable opponent and won't be easy to beat.
Baldwin was stronger than expected in 2012, but she underperformed Obama and probably would have lost had Thompson not ran such a terrible campaign. Hovde probably would have squeezed out a win or at least made it razor-thin, which is pretty underwhelming considering that Wisconsin leans Democratic at the national level.
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