Wisconsin Trend by County: 1976-2012

[ElectionsGuy]

Wisconsin is not the same state politically as it was decades ago. Here is a trend map that shows a trend relative to the state average (not the national average). State average to reduce any state advantage by any candidates. I simply calculated the margin in 1976 relative to the state, did the same for 2012, and then calculate the difference. There are 6 shades on each side (hopefully you'll be able to tell). Since this is a trend map, this a reflection of how the counties have moved politically, not how they have voted. These are the categories (along with an example county):

R+1-4.9 (Brown)
R+5-9.9 (Fond du Lac)
R+10-14.9 (Calumet)
R+15-19.9 (Sheboygan)
R+20-24.9 (Waukesha)
R+25 and over (Washington)

D+1-4.9 (Outagamie)
D+5-9.9 (Waupaca)
D+10-14.9 (Columbia)
D+15-19.9 (Milwaukee)
D+20-24.9 (Iowa)
D+25 and over (Dane)

[Gass3268]

The flip in strength between the Northwest and Southwest is quite amazing. The annoying thing for Democrats is that the Southwest still votes Republican on the state/local level, while the Northwest does not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can't you use the right colors, for God's sake?

Otherwise, nice map.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can't you use the right colors, for God's sake?

Otherwise, nice map.

[RFayette]

This map confirms The Big Sort, with changing alignments producing more polarized results

[TJ in Oregon]

Are Brown and Outagamie actually diverging or are they both close together and slightly on the opposite side of zero?

Also, what's up with Waupaca? I'm assuming the Winnebago trend is due to Oshkosh being a college town.

[Torie]

What is going on in the rural southwest corner of Wisconsin? Is it a Midwestern version (albeit with less extreme numbers) of the Birkenstock belt in Western Mass, Vermont, the western counties of NH along the VT border, a strip of towns along the Mass border in Columbia County, NY, and the far NW corner of CT (e.g., white rural liberals)?  Are liberals into getting back to the land and green self sustainability and organic foods and so forth moving into the area because of its proximity to the Madison vibe of which they like to partake? I know Mineral Point in Iowa County is something of a gay haven, FWIW.

[ElectionsGuy]

Are Brown and Outagamie actually diverging or are they both close together and slightly on the opposite side of zero?

Also, what's up with Waupaca? I'm assuming the Winnebago trend is due to Oshkosh being a college town.

Brown trended 3 points rightward, Outagamie 3 points leftward, so they're not diverging by much. And they vote about the same.

Waupaca used to be one of the most republican counties in the state for whatever reason, now its simply less Republican. Same thing for Vilas and Walworth, though Walworth had literally less than 1 point of movement.

What is going on in the rural southwest corner of Wisconsin? Is it a Midwestern version (albeit with less extreme numbers) of the Birkenstock belt in Western Mass, Vermont, the western counties of NH along the VT border, a strip of towns along the Mass border in Columbia County, NY, and the far NW corner of CT (e.g., white rural liberals)?  Are liberals into getting back to the land and green self sustainability and organic foods and so forth moving into the area because of its proximity to the Madison vibe of which they like to partake? I know Mineral Point in Iowa County is something of a gay haven, FWIW.

I think part of it is the Madison effect, that it that areas around liberal centers get more liberal, but otherwise I don't really have an answer.. The area is still pretty swingy and it only leans Democratic, unlike Vermont/West Massachusetts, so its a bit different.

[TJ in Oregon]

What is going on in the rural southwest corner of Wisconsin? Is it a Midwestern version (albeit with less extreme numbers) of the Birkenstock belt in Western Mass, Vermont, the western counties of NH along the VT border, a strip of towns along the Mass border in Columbia County, NY, and the far NW corner of CT (e.g., white rural liberals)?  Are liberals into getting back to the land and green self sustainability and organic foods and so forth moving into the area because of its proximity to the Madison vibe of which they like to partake? I know Mineral Point in Iowa County is something of a gay haven, FWIW.

I think part of it is the Madison effect, that it that areas around liberal centers get more liberal, but otherwise I don't really have an answer.. The area is still pretty swingy and it only leans Democratic, unlike Vermont/West Massachusetts, so its a bit different.

There certainly is a neopagan component in the areas very close to Madison: Iowa, Dane, Sauk, Columbia, and Green Counties. But once you get away from the Madison commuting areas (most of which are trending faster) it's not an influx of people responsible for the shift but a shift in the voting patterns of the people who live there already.

I think it's the general combination of a relatively poor rural area without great farm land, people that aren't particularly religious (not anti-religious either; just not like Evangelical areas or cornbelt areas), and being in the Madison media market, which means their local news will spend its time telling them how terrible Republicans are. You'll note that if a Republican can come across as particularly competent, see Chuck Grassley across the river in Iowa for a similar effect, that Republican can break through the usual partisan lines. These areas voted ~60% Obama yet still elect their local Republicans comfortably. Unlike the Birkenstock Belt, the rural folk here are not liberal ideologues. They want an Upper Midwestern vision of clean governance and can be won over by the right candidate.

The Madison-area exurbs, however, are a lost cause unless Madison itself begins to wake up and find itself conservative.

[TJ in Oregon]

Are Brown and Outagamie actually diverging or are they both close together and slightly on the opposite side of zero?

Also, what's up with Waupaca? I'm assuming the Winnebago trend is due to Oshkosh being a college town.

Brown trended 3 points rightward, Outagamie 3 points leftward, so they're not diverging by much. And they vote about the same.

Waupaca used to be one of the most republican counties in the state for whatever reason, now its simply less Republican. Same thing for Vilas and Walworth, though Walworth had literally less than 1 point of movement.

I suspect the leftward trend in Vilas is due to an influx of people from Chicagoland. That is prime lake home territory and pricy at that. Vilas may eventually vote like the Poconos or the Hamptons but we're still decades from that point. And Door will get there first anyway.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

What is going on in the rural southwest corner of Wisconsin? Is it a Midwestern version (albeit with less extreme numbers) of the Birkenstock belt in Western Mass, Vermont, the western counties of NH along the VT border, a strip of towns along the Mass border in Columbia County, NY, and the far NW corner of CT (e.g., white rural liberals)?  Are liberals into getting back to the land and green self sustainability and organic foods and so forth moving into the area because of its proximity to the Madison vibe of which they like to partake? I know Mineral Point in Iowa County is something of a gay haven, FWIW.

It's pretty fallacious to claim that Vermont's sharp left-ward trend can be explained by Birkenstock-wearing hippies. The communities within your so-called "Birkenstock belt" remain agricultural. Although the political economy of western Mass, Vermont etc. has shifted, most of these communities remain agricultural in terms of their cultural practices and norms. In light of this pretty obvious fact, it's clear that Vermont shifted to the left largely due to its Yankee culture and the nature of farming in Vermont.

In general, rural communities influenced by Yankee culture have shifted to the left. This holds across states. It's quite evident that northern Ohio, northern Indiana and northern Illinois have shifted to the left. Even when the presence of industrial centers is controlled for, small farming communities are more open to the Democratic Party in regions of Yankee settlement.

As for the second part, crude Marxist psephology has its limitations but its explanatory power is still worth considering: land endowments play a large role in voting behavior. When agriculture is labor intensive, agricultural communities have the tendency to vote for parties of the left. When agriculture is capital-intensive and necessitates large landholdings, agricultural communities have the tendency to vote for parties of the right. When agriculture consists of smallholders, farmers tend to be sympathetic to the left.

What does the Driftless belt of Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Minnesota share in common with Vermont? It shares Yankee influence and small-holder farmers. It's also worth noting that small-holders in the US in these regions tend to be fond of "organic" marketing as a strategy to compete with industrialized agriculture. As a result, they have every reason to back Democrats.

[Torie]

What is going on in the rural southwest corner of Wisconsin? Is it a Midwestern version (albeit with less extreme numbers) of the Birkenstock belt in Western Mass, Vermont, the western counties of NH along the VT border, a strip of towns along the Mass border in Columbia County, NY, and the far NW corner of CT (e.g., white rural liberals)?  Are liberals into getting back to the land and green self sustainability and organic foods and so forth moving into the area because of its proximity to the Madison vibe of which they like to partake? I know Mineral Point in Iowa County is something of a gay haven, FWIW.

It's pretty fallacious to claim that Vermont's sharp left-ward trend can be explained by Birkenstock-wearing hippies. The communities within your so-called "Birkenstock belt" remain agricultural. Although the political economy of western Mass, Vermont etc. has shifted, most of these communities remain agricultural in terms of their cultural practices and norms. In light of this pretty obvious fact, it's clear that Vermont shifted to the left largely due to its Yankee culture and the nature of farming in Vermont.

In general, rural communities influenced by Yankee culture have shifted to the left. This holds across states. It's quite evident that northern Ohio, northern Indiana and northern Illinois have shifted to the left. Even when the presence of industrial centers is controlled for, small farming communities are more open to the Democratic Party in regions of Yankee settlement.

As for the second part, crude Marxist psephology has its limitations but its explanatory power is still worth considering: land endowments play a large role in voting behavior. When agriculture is labor intensive, agricultural communities have the tendency to vote for parties of the left. When agriculture is capital-intensive and necessitates large landholdings, agricultural communities have the tendency to vote for parties of the right. When agriculture consists of smallholders, farmers tend to be sympathetic to the left.

What does the Driftless belt of Wisconsin, Iowa and parts of Minnesota share in common with Vermont? It shares Yankee influence and small-holder farmers. It's also worth noting that small-holders in the US in these regions tend to be fond of "organic" marketing as a strategy to compete with industrialized agriculture. As a result, they have every reason to back Democrats.

I think there is much truth to what you say. Kevin Phillips in his excellent book The Emerging Republican Majority, noted the Yankee shift to the Dems, showcasing in fact Rock County in Wisconsin, that was a Yankee county in a sea of German ones, trending at variance with its neighbors. It's just that with the Birkenstock Belt, it is so much more pronounced. I suspect the Yankee aspect of this is less pronounced today (except to the extent it means less religious, because Yankees tend to be less religious ironically enough, once having been veritable theocrats pre Revolutionary War). I don't really see a Dem trend in northern Indiana, and I am not sure that you can make a case that the more heavily Yankee counties in Iowa have trended more Dem than the German counties. Small scale agriculture I suspect does play a role (long gone in Iowa and the flat landed corn belt). But that fits in with the Birkenstock ethos. I would note that small scale organic farming, and farmers' markets, and so forth, are very much part of the culture here in Columbia County, NY. Also, thank God, you almost never see billboard signs.

Oh speaking of Yankees, my clan is basically Yankee. The trend to the Dems has been about 70% maybe. Almost all of my relatives are Democrats, and almost none are religious. The rise of social issues has caused a mass exit from the Pub party. A factor here I suspect has been the disappearance of the Protestant versus Catholic tension.

[sg0508]

I don't know, but it still seems like actual statewide results in elections are further Democratic than polled.  In '04, Bush was in total control of WI until Oct.  Then, Kerry closed the gap and took the state.

In the '10 GOP landslide, yes the GOP won, but Walker's margin wasn't that impressive and Feingold almost stole that race. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just seems like Democrats do better there on Election Day than what polls actually show.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't know, but it still seems like actual statewide results in elections are further Democratic than polled.  In '04, Bush was in total control of WI until Oct.  Then, Kerry closed the gap and took the state.

In the '10 GOP landslide, yes the GOP won, but Walker's margin wasn't that impressive and Feingold almost stole that race. Maybe I'm overthinking it, but it just seems like Democrats do better there on Election Day than what polls actually show.

Certainly wasn't the case in 2014, when Walker swept to a victory only Marquette predicted. In national elections though, Wisconsin is way over treated as a battleground when it should be treated as a lean D state. Democrats always win in non-wave years.

[Mr. Illini]

Dane surprises me. I have always been under the impression that it was just as much of a Democratic bulwark in the 70's as it is today.

[Gass3268]

Dane surprises me. I have always been under the impression that it was just as much of a Democratic bulwark in the 70's as it is today.

Its always been liberal/progressive, but it was very much a La Follette Republican county early on in the century. The switch to Democrats occurred first on federal level in the 30's and locally in the 50's, but it took until Bush/Obama for it to get to 70% Democratic.

[Bismarck]

Northern Indiana has not shifted left, at least not the rural areas. These are the people who elected Marlin Stutzman. I would guess that the average farmer (not including hobby farmers or organic etc ) are republican in these areas too. The misconception is that farmers make up a large percentage of the population when they simply don't even in rural counties. Except possibly the great plains but certainly not the cornbelt.