Missourification of Ohio?

[Figueira]

I keep hearing people on this site say that Ohio is "becoming like Missouri"--i.e. it's a former swing state that's becoming more Republican. Is there any evidence for this, or is it just a guess?

[Mehmentum]

Ohio was 3 points more republican than the country in 2000.  It was 1 point more republican than the country in 2012.  There doesn't appear to be a long term trend. 

Of course, things could be completely different in 2016, but that's all just speculation/wishful thinking.

[MT Treasurer]

Ohio was 3 points more republican than the country in 2000.  It was 1 point more republican than the country in 2012.  There doesn't appear to be a long term trend.  

PA:

D+4.5 in 2000
D+1.5 in 2012

Does that mean you acknowledge that PA is trending Republican? I'm using YOUR agument

[Figueira]

Ohio was 3 points more republican than the country in 2000.  It was 1 point more republican than the country in 2012.  There doesn't appear to be a long term trend.  

PA:

D+4.5 in 2000
D+1.5 in 2012

Does that mean you acknowledge that PA is trending Republican? I'm using YOUR agument

Mehmentum was saying that Ohio isn't trending in either direction, not that it's trending Democratic. Anyway, this thread is about Ohio, not Pennsylvania.

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio trended left from 2000 to 2004, right from 2004 to 2008, and left from 2008 to 2012. The "Missourification"is a prediction of a future trend and one that may not happen. In the last 16 years, Ohio has oscillated somewhat depending on the candidates and years between Even and R+3.

A "Missourification" may be possible with the right candidate and the right circumstances, but it hasn't happened yet.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ohio has no trend. At the presidential level, it is and has been purple for a long time (if anything, it leans slightly Republican).

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm too young to remember the reasons for Ohio's trends in the Bush years, but 2008 and 2012 are pretty easy to explain.

In 2008, you had an economic collapse, the unpopularity of the Bush years, and the rise of Obama that lead to him thrashing McCain nationwide. Yet, 2008 Obama wasn't a great fit for Ohio against a fairly moderate decorated veteran like McCain. Ohio is more toward the establishment side of things typically (for an example, look at the foreign policy votes of our congressmen in both parties) and while a "change" campaign certainly still won, it resonated less in Ohio than in most of the country.

In 2012, we were coming off the Tea Party rise against Obama and the Republicans nominated Mitt Romney. Ohio is slightly downscale on the economics side of things, which Mittens did not play well to. The Tea Party was also never very powerful in Ohio, so no bounce there either. Mitt did improve a little on McCain's vote totals across the board, but other than the far eastern river counties, the ultra Catholic areas from the War on Women, and rich socially moderate suburbs, there just weren't many Obama '08 voters he managed to woo back. He even lost some in the blue collar parts of the state.

[Mehmentum]

Ohio was 3 points more republican than the country in 2000.  It was 1 point more republican than the country in 2012.  There doesn't appear to be a long term trend.  

PA:

D+4.5 in 2000
D+1.5 in 2012

Does that mean you acknowledge that PA is trending Republican? I'm using YOUR agument

I don't understand your problem with my argument.  A 3 point trend over 12 years isn't a significant trend, neither is Ohio's 2 point trend.  Pennsylvania and Ohio both don't seem to be moving toward either party.  Of course, that could change in 2016, but that's all baseless speculation.

[Republican Michigander]

There's some similarities, but Ohio has a couple more counterbalance factors which Missouri does not have.

A. Missouri's formerly democrat areas are moving heavily Republican. About 30% of Ohio's rural areas (SE) are moving Republican. Central and Western Ohio's rural areas have been Republican since the 1800's. (Free Soil country).

B. Of the cities, Ohio has several rust belt type of cities with significant declines. Cleveland. Cincinnati. Toledo. Akron. Lorain. Youngstown. Dayton. These are concentrated democrat areas. Missouri has just St Louis and Kansas City (which is growing). It's not as rust belt based. Springfield is the other Missouri large city. I don't know how D or R the city is, but the county is 60% Republican. Ohio has 60%+ R counties, but they are all rural or suburb based and not city based. 

C. St Louis County is smaller than suburban Cuyahoga County.

D. Ohio has Columbus. Missouri has much smaller Columbia and Jefferson City, which combined are about 20% of the size of Columbus. Columbus is probably the biggest difference between Ohio and Missouri's election returns.

[Del Tachi]

Missouri is Southern and Ohio is part of the Rust Belt/Industrial Midwest.  Apples to oranges type comparison. 

[DS0816]

I keep hearing people on this site say that Ohio is "becoming like Missouri"--i.e. it's a former swing state that's becoming more Republican. Is there any evidence for this, or is it just a guess?

The Democratic carriage of the state has been re-routed. Rather than southeastern counties bordering Ohio with western parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, a winning Democrat with Ohio in the column wins the population centers, including statewide bellwether Wood County (Bowling Green), will now carry Hamilton County (Cincinnati)—which, after saying no to winning Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton during the Republican presidential realigning period of 1968 to 2004, flipped in 2008 for winning Democrat Barack Obama, carried again for his re-election in 2012, and bolstered better margins than the statewide numbers.

Anyone claiming Ohio is trending Republican is wrong. Ohio is solidly bellwether—having carried for every presidential winner, with an unbroken streak since 1964, and with percentage margins within five points from the national numbers. It trends with the country.

[DS0816]

Adding to Ohio trending with the country…it was the only state in which the Democratic support for re-electing 44th president Barack Obama matched then national gender performances: 45% male/55% female.

Missouri definitely lost its bellwether status much in part over the state's female vote. The men remained close to national percentages, in both 2008 and 2012, but the women of Missouri directed it away from its former bellwether status—and Obama received 45 percent of the female vote in 2012 Missouri.

The "Missourification of Ohio?" title doesn't connect.

[/]

No

[Figueira]

The "Missourification of Ohio?" title doesn't connect.

True. That's why the title is "Missourification of Ohio?" rather than "Missourification of Ohio!"