Are political pundits wrong to call North Carolina a swing state?

[RRusso1982]

A lot of political pundits say North Carolina is a true swing state now.  I beg to differ.  Let's look at the last two elections.  In 2008, Obama won North Carolina by about 14,000 votes, or three tenths of a percent.  This was after all the stars lined up perfectly for him.  He won the national popular vote by almost 7 points, the financial crisis hit North Carolina hard, especially the Charlotte area, and the black turnout was historic for Obama.  In spite of all this, Obama only won North Carolina by three tenths of a percent.  I believe that Hillary would have come up short in North Carolina against McCain.  In 2012, Romney beat Obama by about two points in North Carolina.  Again, the black turnout was very high for Obama, and Romney had a lot of problems with the evangelical voters in the state because he was a Mormon, but he still won North Carolina.  I don't think North Carolina really is a swing state though.  I think that for the Democratic nominee to have a serious chance at winning NC, he or she would have to be winning the national popular vote by at least 5 points.  In a true horse race in 2000, it's not happening.  North Carolina could be a true swing state a few cycles down the road, but it's not there yet.  Any thoughts?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. Its Lean R

[YaBoyNY]

NC, like PA, can and will flip if the Democrat/Republican candidate wins by four or so points.

[Kingpoleon]

NC, like PA, can and will flip if the Democrat/Republican candidate wins by four or so points.

It depends on the candidate. Biden, with strong connections to the "Honorable South", may win it by a point or more. Kasich, with his appeal to blue collar Midwesterners, may win Pennsylvania by a point or two.

Candidates like Rubio and Paul would be strongest of the swing states in the "young" states of Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa - and possibly New Mexico.

[/]

Yes. Its Lean R

That doesn't mean it isn't a swing state

[/]

[Leinad]

Agreed, I don't think it's really a swing state. The Democrats might win it, but only if they're winning by a comfortable margin nationally. If it's competitive nationally, the Republicans will win it.

[smoltchanov]

Yes. Its Lean R

That doesn't mean it isn't a swing state

Agree. IMHO - all "Lean" states are "swing" by definition....

[TDAS04]

Yes, because it won't swing the election.  It could be a battleground state if the Democratic candidate is already winning.

[Figueira]

The term "swing state" has a lot of definitions. It could mean a state that often switches between parties (in which case NM and IN would be swing states but PA and WI wouldn't) or it could be a state that is likely to be close, or a state that is likely to determine the outcome of the election. North Carolina is a swing state by some definitions, but not others. I generally think of it as a swing state though.

[Bismarck]

I think its fair to call North Carolina a swing state, it was one of the closest states in both 2008 and 2012 and will likely be for the near future barring a landslide. I agree that battleground state is more appropriate. On a side note, Indiana is not a swing state at the presidential level. 2008 was a perfect storm and Romney won Indiana by double digits.

[Crumpets]

I like James Carville's definition of a swing state, which is that if you were told the outcome in that state you wouldn't be able to judge the outcome of the election as a whole. If you were told the Republicans carried Colorado, you wouldn't be able to gather all that much about the election as a whole. But, if you were told the Democrats carried North Carolina, you could reasonably assume it was a strong Democratic win.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I like James Carville's definition of a swing state, which is that if you were told the outcome in that state you wouldn't be able to judge the outcome of the election as a whole. If you were told the Republicans carried Colorado, you wouldn't be able to gather all that much about the election as a whole. But, if you were told the Democrats carried North Carolina, you could reasonably assume it was a strong Democratic win.

Under that definition Florida wouldn't be a swing state. If FL goes DD their candidate wins the White House. 

[Leinad]

I think its fair to call North Carolina a swing state, it was one of the closest states in both 2008 and 2012 and will likely be for the near future barring a landslide. I agree that battleground state is more appropriate. On a side note, Indiana is not a swing state at the presidential level. 2008 was a perfect storm and Romney won Indiana by double digits.

But 2008 and 2012 were strong Democratic wins. In '12, Obama won the popular vote by a 4% margin, while in North Carolina, Romney won by a 2% margin. In '08, Obama won the popular vote by 7%, but only won NC by less than half a percent. And Obama would generally do better, at least marginally, in North Carolina, a state where blacks comprise over one-fifth of the electorate.

If the national popular vote margin is within a percent or two (no one has been elected president while trailing by over a percent in the popular vote since Hayes in 1876) North Carolina will almost certainly be won by the Republicans. I suppose it could swing in an unlikely matchup--maybe Christie vs. Webb or something--but I still highly doubt it.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I like James Carville's definition of a swing state, which is that if you were told the outcome in that state you wouldn't be able to judge the outcome of the election as a whole. If you were told the Republicans carried Colorado, you wouldn't be able to gather all that much about the election as a whole. But, if you were told the Democrats carried North Carolina, you could reasonably assume it was a strong Democratic win.

Under that definition Florida wouldn't be a swing state. If FL goes DD their candidate wins the White House. 

Florida is not a pure swing-state either.

The pure swing states are:

GOP 235
Ohio
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
DEM 237

[Likely Voter]

Any state that has 'swung' in a recent election could be called a swing state, so that would include NC, IN and NM.  But the better term is 'battleground' which is the old 'follow the money' addage. If the campaigns are spending serious money in a state on TV and GOTV then it is a 'battleground' and by that definition, NC has been a battleground for the last two elections. I suspect it will be one again. While the Dems know it wont be a 'tipping point' state, they know it is a 'must win' state for the GOP and so for every dollar they spend the GOP will end up spending more to defend it. It is essentially electoral college trolling. 

[Adam Griffin]

No. The state will continue to move to the left at a faster rate than the nation itself, but for the past few years, it has experienced countervailing trends that have dampened its net movement. The loss of the meaningful remnants of the Greatest Generation and political polarization largely eliminating the concept of "conservative" Democrats have cancelled out a large chunk of the leftward movement as of late that has been fueled by younger voters shifting leftward, racial diversification among the population and more liberal white voters moving to the state. The former dynamic, however, has ran out of steam: there really aren't any from the FDR generation left to die off and there aren't really any conservative Democrats remaining that can/will defect.

Seriously...the whole "the sky is falling" logic with respect to NC's progression toward a Democratic majority in presidential elections due to Obama doing one point worse and Romney doing one point better when compared to a landmark Democratic year 4 years prior is quite tiresome.

[Vern]

Both Republicans and Democrats have a base of about 45% in North Carolina. The other 10% are up for grabs. Here in the past few elections Republicans have grabs a good chunk of them, due to various  reasons.

[DS0816]

It's a swing state.

When President Obama didn't hold North Carolina in 2012, he garnered 46 percent of the state's male vote—which was actually better with his re-election than that of his first election (when he flipped the state).

The gender vote in 2008 North Carolina was 43% male/55% female. The gender vote in 2012 North Carolina was 46% male/51% female. That 46 percent male, from 2012, was actually better than Obama's national 45 percent—which was actually what he reaped in the most reputable bellwether state in the nation, Ohio (in which the 2012 gender vote matched with the national percentages). And the 55 percent (2008) and 51 percent (2012) female support was similar to new bellwether state Colorado.

The trendline has been developing in North Carolina over the past 15 years. In 2000, it was 13 points more Republican than the nation, followed by 10 points (2004), 7 points (Democratic pickup of the state in 2008), and 6 points (Republican pickup of the state in 2012).

The Democrats' winning map is nowadays similar to the Republicans' from the past (before realignment/counter-realignment). In the 1950s, two-term Republican president Dwight Eisenhower won between 11 and 15 percent of his electoral votes in the Democratic base states of the Old Confederacy. Forty years later, two-term Democratic president Bill Clinton also experienced this in the Republican base states of the Old Confederacy. Between these four elections, precious select states went for Eisenhower and Clinton. A 2008 and 2012 winning Democratic president Barack Obama also followed this pattern (15 percent, in 2008, and 12 percent, in 2012).

The Old Confederacy states that will deliver to a winning Democrat are obviously starting with both Florida and Virginia. (In the past, it was the likes of Arkansas, Louisiana, and ex-bellwether Tennessee.) The former is a long-running bellwether state (since 1928) and the latter is newly established (since 2008, especially with statewide-vs.-nationwide margins). The next bellwether state—and the third from this area—will be North Carolina. Had Barack Obama won his 2012 re-election by a larger margin in the U.S. Popular Vote (going from, say, 7.26 to 10.26 percent), which is historically typical for incumbents re-elected to a second full term, he would have carried North Carolina.

[DS0816]

Agreed, I don't think it's really a swing state. The Democrats might win it, but only if they're winning by a comfortable margin nationally. If it's competitive nationally, the Republicans will win it.

The combined four terms of Democratic presidents Bill Clinton (5.56 and 8.52 percent) and Barack Obama (7.26 and 3.86 percent) averaged 6.30 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote.

Mitt Romney's 2012 Republican pickup of North Carolina was at 5.88 percent for party advantage.

The two terms of Republican president George W. Bush (–0.52 and 2.46 percent) averaged 0.97 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote.

The Democrats have carried 207 of the 379 electoral votes from the 21 double-digit electoral votes states in every presidential election after the 1980s while the Republicans have won just 38 (with Texas) every time in this same period. It's not difficult to understand why the Democrats have had a 5.33 percent advantage, in winning the U.S. Popular Vote, over the Republican Party.