Are political pundits wrong to call North Carolina a swing state?

[DS0816]

It's a swing state.

When President Obama didn't hold North Carolina in 2012, he garnered 46 percent of the state's male vote—which was actually better with his re-election than that of his first election (when he flipped the state).

The gender vote in 2008 North Carolina was 43% male/55% female. The gender vote in 2012 North Carolina was 46% male/51% female. That 46 percent male, from 2012, was actually better than Obama's national 45 percent—which was actually what he reaped in the most reputable bellwether state in the nation, Ohio (in which the 2012 gender vote matched with the national percentages). And the 55 percent (2008) and 51 percent (2012) female support was similar to new bellwether state Colorado.

The trendline has been developing in North Carolina over the past 15 years. In 2000, it was 13 points more Republican than the nation, followed by 10 points (2004), 7 points (Democratic pickup of the state in 2008), and 6 points (Republican pickup of the state in 2012).

The Democrats' winning map is nowadays similar to the Republicans' from the past (before realignment/counter-realignment). In the 1950s, two-term Republican president Dwight Eisenhower won between 11 and 15 percent of his electoral votes in the Democratic base states of the Old Confederacy. Forty years later, two-term Democratic president Bill Clinton also experienced this in the Republican base states of the Old Confederacy. Between these four elections, precious select states went for Eisenhower and Clinton. A 2008 and 2012 winning Democratic president Barack Obama also followed this pattern (15 percent, in 2008, and 12 percent, in 2012).

The Old Confederacy states that will deliver to a winning Democrat are obviously starting with both Florida and Virginia. (In the past, it was the likes of Arkansas, Louisiana, and ex-bellwether Tennessee.) The former is a long-running bellwether state (since 1928) and the latter is newly established (since 2008, especially with statewide-vs.-nationwide margins). The next bellwether state—and the third from this area—will be North Carolina. Had Barack Obama won his 2012 re-election by a larger margin in the U.S. Popular Vote (going from, say, 7.26 to 10.26 percent), which is historically typical for incumbents re-elected to a second full term, he would have carried North Carolina.

[DS0816]

Agreed, I don't think it's really a swing state. The Democrats might win it, but only if they're winning by a comfortable margin nationally. If it's competitive nationally, the Republicans will win it.

The combined four terms of Democratic presidents Bill Clinton (5.56 and 8.52 percent) and Barack Obama (7.26 and 3.86 percent) averaged 6.30 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote.

Mitt Romney's 2012 Republican pickup of North Carolina was at 5.88 percent for party advantage.

The two terms of Republican president George W. Bush (–0.52 and 2.46 percent) averaged 0.97 percentage points in the U.S. Popular Vote.

The Democrats have carried 207 of the 379 electoral votes from the 21 double-digit electoral votes states in every presidential election after the 1980s while the Republicans have won just 38 (with Texas) every time in this same period. It's not difficult to understand why the Democrats have had a 5.33 percent advantage, in winning the U.S. Popular Vote, over the Republican Party.