Danish Referendum on converting EU justice opt-out to opt-in, 3 December 2015

[DavidB.]

How much of a role does SF's tactic (vote yes if you're humane to refugees) seem to play?

[Diouf]

How much of a role does SF's tactic (vote yes if you're humane to refugees) seem to play?

The refugee question is certainly playing a significant role. Megafon asked whether people believed that a yes would eventually lead to Denmark joining the common EU asylum and refugee policies. 54 % said yes, 13 % said no. The rest don't know. There are probably several reasons for this; the biggest seem to be that when the EU refugee quotas were discussed, PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen offered voluntarily to take 1000 refugees if a suitable agreement was reached. Now he has actually reneged on that offer again as he argues that "the refugees have distributed themselves up here". Nevertheless, that offer is often used as proving that even the Liberals would happily agree to join the EU's common refugee policies once they get the possibility. SF's refugee campaign has played a role in convincing people as well; their MEP Margrethe Auken has used it frequently. It was mentioned in their party's programme about the referendum on TV, but party leader Pia Olsen Dyhr was much less direct in using it. In the other polls, SF's voters does btw seem to support the party's yes stance quite clearly, opposite to what the Gallup poll suggested.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your answer, Diouf

So this is today. When do the polls close?

[Diouf]

The polls opened at 9.00 and close at 20.00. The exit polls will mostly come around 20.00, and then the results should start coming in relatively quick. I guess the final result will be ready in 1.5-2 hours, and then there will be a party leader debate/discussion.

At 16.00, 38.6 % has voted, so the turnout is going to be bigger than expected. The final turnout might be all the way up at around 70 %.

The best places to follow the vote are probably the two main TV channels (dr.dk & tv2.dk) and the big newspapers (jp.dk, b.dk & politiken.dk).

The official results will be published at: http://www.kmdvalg.dk/Main/?valgart=AV

[Diouf]

In two municipalities, there will be not only one but two ballots today. Struer and Holstebro municipalities are voting on whether to merge the two municipalities. Both mayors support the merger, but as can be seen in the above polls, there does not seem to be much appetite for it, especially in Struer which is the smallest of the two. They probably fear that they will be forgotten and their services centralized in a big municipality. A yes in both municipalities is needed for the merger to go through.

[DavidB.]

Do the municipalities have very much of a different "culture"? The current Dutch government is pushing for many municipalities to merge, but this is especially problematic and unpopular if the merger is deemed "unnatural", for instance if there are large socio-economic disparities between municipalities and if two rural municipalities are oriented toward different cities.

How large are municipalities in Denmark generally, in terms of inhabitants?

[Diouf]

Do the municipalities have very much of a different "culture"? The current Dutch government is pushing for many municipalities to merge, but this is especially problematic and unpopular if the merger is deemed "unnatural", for instance if there are large socio-economic disparities between municipalities and if two rural municipalities are oriented toward different cities.

How large are municipalities in Denmark generally, in terms of inhabitants?

In the 2007 municipial reform, the number of municipalities was reduced from 275 to 98. The median size of a municipality is now 45 000. There are a few special island municipalities with less than 15 000 inhabitants, but Struer is among the smallest of the standard ones with only 21.594 inhabitants whereas Holstebro is bigger than average with 57.526. I think this smalller town vs bigger town is the biggest reason why Struer says no. I don't think there are significant "cultural" differences; both municipalities are fairly rural and located far away from the big cities, but they are quite well-off. It is not like the poorer outskirts in Southern Zealand, Langeland, and Lolland-Falster.

[Diouf]

57.1% turnout at 18.00

[Diouf]

My guess would be that the unexpectedly high turnout will lead to an unexpectedly big win for the no-side, but we will see shortly. The polls have showed that the no-side has the biggest leads among youngsters and people with no or little education; those who would probably not have turned up if the turnout was down at 50-55 %,

[DavidB.]

That would also be my guess, especially given the demographics of the people leaning no: in Western Europe, high turnout often helps the anti-establishment option.

However, my gut feeling says it could even become a yes, but sometimes it's better not to listen to one's gut feeling

[DavidB.]

Switching on the livestream.

[DavidB.]

46.7% Yes
53.3% No

Exit poll DR

[Tender Branson]

Excellent news.

The Danish people voted not to be further enslaved by the EUSSR.

[Diouf]

Exit Poll TV2 almost similar 47.2 % yes 52.8 % no

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I can't see this becoming a "yes" anymore. Feeling happy for you guys Although I know you voted yes.

[rosin]

The first prognosis for the referendum is ready, based on 8.3% counted votes. It gives a rather clear "no"-lead:

yes: 45.5%
no: 54.5%

The estimated voting-% is 73.9, much higher than anticipated

[DavidB.]

Have prominent politicians already replied?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Interesting to see the what the results in Struer and Holstebro will be, since that's the area my grandparents are from. Hopefully they both reject the merger with a big margin. Municiplaity mergers are almost always a terrible idea, and the Danish ones are already pretty big since the large national merger. 

[Diouf]

Final result almost there for the opt-out to opt-in. 47 % yes, 53 % no.

Holstebro result: 54.8 % no 45.2 % yes
Struer result: 67.9 % no 32.1 % yes

[DavidB.]

End result:
No - 53,1%
Yes - 46,9%

Exit polls were remarkably accurate.

Election map here.

[DavidB.]

Voting behavior in the referendum by party preference. Conducted by Epinion. Amazed by the high percentage of Alternative voters that voted against. Soc Dems, SF and LA also really split.

These results show that euroskepticism in Denmark is very prevalent on the left and less so on the right; very remarkable. The "bourgeois" right and RV (which is of course also essentially bourgeois even if it is part of the red bloc) remain most supportive of European integration. On the left some elites might support it, but voters remain skeptical. No real left-wing party had more than 53% of its voters vote "yes".

[Diouf]

The yes areas seem to be areas with either a big proportion of highly educated and wealthy inhabitants or areas with many Liberal-loyalists. The areas in Northern Zealand (Gentofte, Rudersdal & Lyngby all with more than 60 % yes) and the big cities (Frederiksberg with both Falkoner and Slot, Indre By and Østerbro in Copenhagen, Aarhus East and South and Odense South) are examples of the former while Herning Nord and Ringkøbing are examples of the latter (Holstebro was also very close).

[Diouf]

The plan now is that the PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen will meet with all the other party leaders on Monday to agree on the approach towards parallel deals and the future steps in that regard. Then on Friday, he will meet Juncker and Tusk in Brussels to discuss how to go about with this.

[Diouf]

After the no in the referendum, the Danish government has negotiated with the European Commission about a deal that could somehow keep Denmark in Europol. A few days ago, the government announced a draft deal with the Commission and called negotiations with the other parties to seek support to pursue a final deal. The draft deal means that Denmark will be an observer without voting rights on the Europol board, it will still participate in information sharing of strategic analyses, it will be allowed to search in the Europol database but through a Danish-speaking intermediary in Europol. Denmark will not be allowed to take part in the Cybercrime Section nor in the work in the new European Counter Terrorism Centre.

Today the government announced that all parties supported the government's draft deal, and gave it a mandate to pursue a final deal. The DPP had been quite hesitant to support the agreement since the deal meant continued participation in Schengen, but in the end agreed to support the government as they were ensured that a parliamentary majority could still take Denmark out of Schengen, although it would scupper this deal. The parties will evaluate the deal yearly, and some parties, especially the Social Liberals, have said that they want and expect a second referendum soon. One reason is that the Europol database will soon be searchable in portable devices carried by the police officers, but Denmark will not be able to use those due to the lack of direct access to the database. Also the lack of voting rights on Europol decisions means that Denmark, who is among the countries who use Europol the most, will not be able to influence decisions made about its structure and function.

The government will now also try to get deals to participate in several of the other cooperations and regulations, which were rejected as a part of the referendum. First and foremost, this concerns Eurojust and Passenger Name Records.

[DavidB.]

The parties will evaluate the deal yearly, and some parties, especially the Social Liberals, have said that they want and expect a second referendum soon. One reason is that the Europol database will soon be searchable in portable devices carried by the police officers, but Denmark will not be able to use those due to the lack of direct access to the database. Also the lack of voting rights on Europol decisions means that Denmark, who is among the countries who use Europol the most, will not be able to influence decisions made about its structure and function.

So this would be a referendum on the very same question? Basically another example of "don't take no for an answer"? That would really be very unfortunate imo. Which parties would support such a second referendum, and is it likely to take place?