What will take Trump down?
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  What will take Trump down?
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Author Topic: What will take Trump down?  (Read 6929 times)
Mister Mets
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« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2015, 10:15:58 PM »

Nate Silver had a good piece on the stages of the race, and where Trump can trip up.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

The main problems as I see it...
- He stumbles in the next few months. It could be that one incident is the straw that broke the camel's back, or a death of a thousand cuts.
- Someone else rises.
- Poor organization.

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #26 on: August 24, 2015, 03:34:54 AM »

His defeat by Hillary on November 8, 2016.
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Blair
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« Reply #27 on: August 24, 2015, 03:53:05 AM »

He's part of the summer of discontent.

It's a poor mans political theory but Corbyn , Sanders and Trump surging shows something
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andrew_c
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« Reply #28 on: August 24, 2015, 04:12:44 AM »

Republican primary voters.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #29 on: August 24, 2015, 04:21:04 AM »

Most likely simply Trump fatigue. Populists are great at short term campaigns, but not necessarily great at the long haul. Elections don't get more long haul than elections for the US presidency. What once seemed like a breath of fresh air, may very well soon turn stale.

That or one-on-one debates against Hillary Clinton. I don't see how he survives those unscathed.
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BM
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« Reply #30 on: August 24, 2015, 04:35:12 AM »
« Edited: August 24, 2015, 04:37:18 AM by BeccaM »

Trump is the reality TV version of Hollywood Reagan and he's winning the nomination whether you like it or not.

The only difference is Trump is hilariously transparent about being evil while Reagan, an equally despicable villain, hid it with a sunny disposition. I'd take Trump any day over that piece of garbage.

Reagan was the first nominee of the modern Republican party and Trump will be the last. Decades of the worship of money and xenophobia have coalesced to create the Frankentrump monster.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #31 on: August 26, 2015, 08:36:51 PM »

So apparently he will not be taken down on bible questions. In an interview on Bloomberg Trump was asked what his favorite verses were and he said he didn't want to talk about it because it is 'too personal.'

...nice dodge
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #32 on: August 26, 2015, 08:55:54 PM »

Trump is the reality TV version of Hollywood Reagan and he's winning the nomination whether you like it or not.

The only difference is Trump is hilariously transparent about being evil while Reagan, an equally despicable villain, hid it with a sunny disposition. I'd take Trump any day over that piece of garbage.

Reagan was the first nominee of the modern Republican party and Trump will be the last. Decades of the worship of money and xenophobia have coalesced to create the Frankentrump monster.

The difference between Reagan '80 and Trump '16 is that Reagan had some IOUs from 1976 and was considered the "next in line" by many Republicans.  He was also the leader of the "movement conservatives" in the GOP.  Voters were angry then as well, but Reagan was smoothe and likable in ways Trump could never be. 

Reagan was very much an insider, even if he wasn't a part of the Eastern Establishment.  Trump is an outsider crashing the party.  He's gotten this far because there's a real demand within the GOP for his type of candidate.  The GOP is in the pickle they are in because they have encouraged xenophobia, uber-nationalism, and belief that government needs a "businessman" to run things,  but this free-trader wasn't what they had in mind.   They wanted someone who could schmooze the immigration issue.  Sorry, but . . .
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #33 on: August 26, 2015, 09:15:11 PM »

Only he himself, if he starts kicking anchor babys into the Hudson River ...

That's the problem with far-right populists. They can only destroy themselves. The attacks by the mainstream and the Left only makes them stronger.

While Tender's recent shrillness has found us on opposite sides of many discussions recently, he's dead right here. People have got to stop thinking of Trump through the prism of a mainstream Republican or Conservative campaign, he's channeling European right-wing populism, so both the GOP and the media don't understand what's going on.

There are two things that kill these kinds of political movements off a) ignoring them, outrage and indignation from people who aren't them are this beast's key food source b) overreach and incompetence.

All normal rules about US politics need to be re-considered in this circumstance... he's gaffe-proof, his base LOVES it when he's impolite and impolitic, and he's making a bunch of angry, insecure white men feel good about their prejudices and insecurities. Political gold.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2015, 08:17:40 PM »

Only he himself, if he starts kicking anchor babys into the Hudson River ...

That's the problem with far-right populists. They can only destroy themselves. The attacks by the mainstream and the Left only makes them stronger.

While Tender's recent shrillness has found us on opposite sides of many discussions recently, he's dead right here. People have got to stop thinking of Trump through the prism of a mainstream Republican or Conservative campaign, he's channeling European right-wing populism, so both the GOP and the media don't understand what's going on.

There are two things that kill these kinds of political movements off a) ignoring them, outrage and indignation from people who aren't them are this beast's key food source b) overreach and incompetence.

All normal rules about US politics need to be re-considered in this circumstance... he's gaffe-proof, his base LOVES it when he's impolite and impolitic, and he's making a bunch of angry, insecure white men feel good about their prejudices and insecurities. Political gold.

So just how stupid was it for the GOP Establishment to go full-bore to shut down Trump early as they did? 
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Crumpets
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« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2015, 08:43:50 PM »

I honestly think the most likely thing to take Trump down at this point is him saying something moderate and sensible with a lot of people watching. People think "Oops!" took down Perry in 2011, but the line that really did him in was "Have a heart!" regarding the children of undocumented immigrants. If, for example, Trump is asked during a debate something about gay rights and he responds "Gay people are Americans too, and they are granted equal protection by our Constitution. Regardless of your personal beliefs, we all must recognize that fundamental right," his numbers will plummet.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2015, 10:50:58 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2015, 10:52:49 PM by The Mikado »

I honestly think the most likely thing to take Trump down at this point is him saying something moderate and sensible with a lot of people watching. People think "Oops!" took down Perry in 2011, but the line that really did him in was "Have a heart!" regarding the children of undocumented immigrants. If, for example, Trump is asked during a debate something about gay rights and he responds "Gay people are Americans too, and they are granted equal protection by our Constitution. Regardless of your personal beliefs, we all must recognize that fundamental right," his numbers will plummet.

I don't think Trump would say that. I think he'd say "I know some gays. Real killers...brilliant negotiators.  They can bring clients to all the hottest spots in Manhattan...they know how to close the deal there. It's true! Real sharks. I know a few gay negotiators I want on my team when we sit down with China! They'll go to the hippest show Off-Off-Broadway and settle the trade deficit over tapas and sangria. China won't know what hit 'em."

EDIT: I seriously expect that Trump will respond to the question "do you support same sex marriage" with "Only if they hold the reception in one of my hotels" and that the audience will just roar in approval.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2015, 10:59:57 PM »

That or one-on-one debates against Hillary Clinton. I don't see how he survives those unscathed.

Now I'm imagining Trump sending out 3am tweets about how Clinton ain't ready to take those 3am phone calls lol. At least Trump would be ready to take them, as he's never even in bed until 3am, it seems. Tongue
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Crumpets
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« Reply #38 on: August 28, 2015, 12:38:33 AM »

I honestly think the most likely thing to take Trump down at this point is him saying something moderate and sensible with a lot of people watching. People think "Oops!" took down Perry in 2011, but the line that really did him in was "Have a heart!" regarding the children of undocumented immigrants. If, for example, Trump is asked during a debate something about gay rights and he responds "Gay people are Americans too, and they are granted equal protection by our Constitution. Regardless of your personal beliefs, we all must recognize that fundamental right," his numbers will plummet.

I don't think Trump would say that. I think he'd say "I know some gays. Real killers...brilliant negotiators.  They can bring clients to all the hottest spots in Manhattan...they know how to close the deal there. It's true! Real sharks. I know a few gay negotiators I want on my team when we sit down with China! They'll go to the hippest show Off-Off-Broadway and settle the trade deficit over tapas and sangria. China won't know what hit 'em."

EDIT: I seriously expect that Trump will respond to the question "do you support same sex marriage" with "Only if they hold the reception in one of my hotels" and that the audience will just roar in approval.

Agreed 100%, I was just trying to think of a theoretical example. However, I can imagine him maybe not being totally on his game during a debate and not being able to think up a witty response in a few seconds, falling back on reason and logic for his response, and getting a cold reaction.
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #39 on: August 28, 2015, 12:51:52 AM »

What, if anything, will be the thing(s) that does his campaign in? I am increasingly struggling to see what could possibly do so. It's as if we've entered literal dead girl/live boy territory.

You can't stop the American dream.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #40 on: August 28, 2015, 01:48:37 PM »

Hmmm....
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Crumpets
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« Reply #41 on: August 28, 2015, 01:53:01 PM »


It's okay because
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Beezer
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« Reply #42 on: August 28, 2015, 01:55:58 PM »

I honestly think the most likely thing to take Trump down at this point is him saying something moderate and sensible with a lot of people watching. People think "Oops!" took down Perry in 2011, but the line that really did him in was "Have a heart!" regarding the children of undocumented immigrants. If, for example, Trump is asked during a debate something about gay rights and he responds "Gay people are Americans too, and they are granted equal protection by our Constitution. Regardless of your personal beliefs, we all must recognize that fundamental right," his numbers will plummet.

I don't think Trump would say that. I think he'd say "I know some gays. Real killers...brilliant negotiators.  They can bring clients to all the hottest spots in Manhattan...they know how to close the deal there. It's true! Real sharks. I know a few gay negotiators I want on my team when we sit down with China! They'll go to the hippest show Off-Off-Broadway and settle the trade deficit over tapas and sangria. China won't know what hit 'em."

EDIT: I seriously expect that Trump will respond to the question "do you support same sex marriage" with "Only if they hold the reception in one of my hotels" and that the audience will just roar in approval.

"No one will be better for the gays than Donald Trump."
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Beezer
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« Reply #43 on: August 28, 2015, 01:59:18 PM »

About Trump and Europan right-wing populism: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/08/26/the-trump-phenomenon-and-the-european-populist-radical-right/

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Jacobtm
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« Reply #44 on: August 28, 2015, 02:24:06 PM »


Europe and the U.S. are both experiencing a flood of immigrants who are bringing down our standards of living, are causing violence, not assimilating, etc.

It only makes sense that we would all finally say "enough". Hopefully this could lead to a real paradigm shift wherein a nation protecting itself as a nation is no longer seen as something that is unacceptable and rather becomes the norm.

There is no reason for Sweden to want to turn into Somalia+Syria. There is no reason for Germany to want to turn into Turkey. There is no reason for the U.S. to want to turn into Mexico.
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« Reply #45 on: August 28, 2015, 03:31:00 PM »

When he loses the election next year and throws a huge temper tantrum during his concession speech.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #46 on: August 28, 2015, 03:39:19 PM »


Europe and the U.S. are both experiencing a flood of immigrants who are bringing down our standards of living, are causing violence, not assimilating, etc.

It only makes sense that we would all finally say "enough". Hopefully this could lead to a real paradigm shift wherein a nation protecting itself as a nation is no longer seen as something that is unacceptable and rather becomes the norm.

There is no reason for Sweden to want to turn into Somalia+Syria. There is no reason for Germany to want to turn into Turkey. There is no reason for the U.S. to want to turn into Mexico.

Exactly. The left depends in self loathing white guilt in order to shut down any talk of border security
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Simfan34
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« Reply #47 on: August 29, 2015, 11:22:35 AM »

Politico's insiders agree that Trump is defying gravity and they can't see what could take him down after all he's done:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/joe-biden-president-2016-decision-213103
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #48 on: August 29, 2015, 11:47:00 AM »

Politico's insiders agree that Trump is defying gravity and they can't see what could take him down after all he's done:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/joe-biden-president-2016-decision-213103
This article's great!

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #49 on: August 29, 2015, 12:02:17 PM »

Negative 2.5% GDP growth in 2019.
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