Clarity Campaigns (IL-10/3) - Dold narrowly ahead, Lipinski Safe

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/20/human-rights-campaign-releases-polls-on-dold-lipinski/

Dold 44
Schneider 40

Lipinski 51
Generic Republican 20

[Maxwell]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

[Horus]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dold is much more popular than Kirk. But,
Dems need this seat. Hopefully, Schneider will make a race out of it

[RI]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

Yeah, how dare there be a pro-life Dem in the House! Especially an ethnic white from an ethnically white district!

[Donerail]

If you're a Democrat and you refuse to endorse your party's Presidential nominee, are you really a Democrat?

Lipinski also voted against the ACA, opposes same-sex marriage, and is one of the worst Dems on privacy issues and immigration. Pretty useless Dem.

[Maxwell]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

Yeah, how dare there be a pro-life Dem in the House! Especially an ethnic white from an ethnically white district!

Yes, exactly. I'm not a pro-life, anti-marriage Dem. I want less pro-life, anti-marriage Dems in the House. Pretty hard thing to understand, huh?

[PAK Man]

If you're a Democrat and you refuse to endorse your party's Presidential nominee, are you really a Democrat?

Lipinski also voted against the ACA, opposes same-sex marriage, and is one of the worst Dems on privacy issues and immigration. Pretty useless Dem.

Don't forget the way he got into the House to begin with; his dad, Bill Lipinski, was the incumbent but decided after the primary he didn't want it anymore. Dan replaced his father on the ballot, despite not even living in Illinois (he was a college professor in Tennessee at the time and never held elected office before).

[Mr. Illini]

Dold is safer than Dems may think. They must get on their game in the 10th

[ElectionsGuy]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

Yeah, how dare there be a pro-life Dem in the House! Especially an ethnic white from an ethnically white district!

What does 'ethnic white' mean?

[Zioneer]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

Yeah, how dare there be a pro-life Dem in the House! Especially an ethnic white from an ethnically white district!

What does 'ethnic white' mean?

People who are considered to be white today, but were not considered white decades ago, and so have formed tight communities that have their own identity. Think Irish, Polish, Lithuanian, Italian, etc communities. They're clearly white now, but American society didn't consider them white a while ago.

[ElectionsGuy]

That's a shame. There are few congresscritters I would like out of a job more than Dan Lipinski.

Yeah, how dare there be a pro-life Dem in the House! Especially an ethnic white from an ethnically white district!

What does 'ethnic white' mean?

People who are considered to be white today, but were not considered white decades ago, and so have formed tight communities that have their own identity. Think Irish, Polish, Lithuanian, Italian, etc communities. They're clearly white now, but American society didn't consider them white a while ago.

Thanks.

[Bojack Horseman]

Dold is safer than Dems may think. They must get on their game in the 10th

How the hell is a D+8 seat safe for a clown like Bob Dold?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Dold is safer than Dems may think. They must get on their game in the 10th

How the hell is a D+8 seat safe for a clown like Bob Dold?

It's not 'safe' for him, but it won't be an easy win. Dold is a social liberal and a centrist on entitlements. And unlike Kirk, he isn't prone to making gaffes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014. 

It will be a close election at end.

[Bojack Horseman]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014. 

It will be a close election at end.

I'm well aware of that, but just like Carol Shea-Porter, they both only lost because precisely nobody came out to vote. Shea-Porter will win again in 2016 and then probably lose again in 2018.

Anyway, crossover is a real problem with the Democratic Party. I can't think of a single Democrat who could win in an R+8 district, and here's a narrow election in a district we should be the rightful owners of. Looks like the IL Legislature needs to do a better job of drawing Dold out of office come 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014.  

It will be a close election at end.

I'm well aware of that, but just like Carol Shea-Porter, they both only lost because precisely nobody came out to vote. Shea-Porter will win again in 2016 and then probably lose again in 2018.

Bill Daley is gonna run for gov in 2018; as Rauner failed as gov; as he failed to get budget out of Legislature. So this seat isnt lost to Dems if Dems pick it up in 2016.

Bill Foster is coming in soon to campaign for Dems statewide, and Schneider needs him. Foster is campaigning for Duckworth as well as Raja for Duckworth's frm seat. It's only the beginning.

[muon2]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014. 

It will be a close election at end.

I'm well aware of that, but just like Carol Shea-Porter, they both only lost because precisely nobody came out to vote. Shea-Porter will win again in 2016 and then probably lose again in 2018.

Anyway, crossover is a real problem with the Democratic Party. I can't think of a single Democrat who could win in an R+8 district, and here's a narrow election in a district we should be the rightful owners of. Looks like the IL Legislature needs to do a better job of drawing Dold out of office come 2020.

The issue is viewing CDs solely in terms of PVI. PVI is based on the last two presidential elections which both had favorite son Obama. That worth at least a couple of points on the PVI, and Obama isn't on the ballot in 2016. The area of CD 10 is a bit of a mirror of the blue dog districts of the south with a split between presidential and local representation. That distorts the PVI a bit as well.

For example, Lake county was 58% for Rauner in 2014 after voting 53% for Obama in 2012. Here's Miles breakdown by CD. Note Rauner's performance in CD 10.

Illinois

Summary:


Detailed breakdowns.

[SATW]

I endorse Lipinski.

And Dold.

[Mr. Illini]

Schneider is in a primary with Rotering. Dold isnt. And Schneider just lost the seat in 2014. 

It will be a close election at end.

I'm well aware of that, but just like Carol Shea-Porter, they both only lost because precisely nobody came out to vote. Shea-Porter will win again in 2016 and then probably lose again in 2018.

Anyway, crossover is a real problem with the Democratic Party. I can't think of a single Democrat who could win in an R+8 district, and here's a narrow election in a district we should be the rightful owners of. Looks like the IL Legislature needs to do a better job of drawing Dold out of office come 2020.

The issue is viewing CDs solely in terms of PVI. PVI is based on the last two presidential elections which both had favorite son Obama. That worth at least a couple of points on the PVI, and Obama isn't on the ballot in 2016. The area of CD 10 is a bit of a mirror of the blue dog districts of the south with a split between presidential and local representation. That distorts the PVI a bit as well.

For example, Lake county was 58% for Rauner in 2014 after voting 53% for Obama in 2012. Here's Miles breakdown by CD. Note Rauner's performance in CD 10.

Illinois

Summary:


Detailed breakdowns.

Worth noting that even thought Obama is not on the ballot in 16, I don't foresee a major shift in the district. The Democratic Presidential candidate will win it again handily and Dold will outperform the GOP Presidential candidate significantly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama isnt on ballot, but Tammy Duckworth is running against Kirk; Dold's proteje.  They dont share the same beliefs as Duckworth and they dont support Public funding for abortions; & support parental notifification. That both Schneider and Duckworth can use.

[muon2]

Worth noting that even thought Obama is not on the ballot in 16, I don't foresee a major shift in the district. The Democratic Presidential candidate will win it again handily and Dold will outperform the GOP Presidential candidate significantly.

The key is that Dold will outperform the GOP nom for pres and the district will shift slightly Pub without Obama. It's the two factors added together that will help determine the outcome. Small changes in turnout can decide the race.

When you use the word handily, that has to be in the context of how the national campaign is going since PVI is measured against the national results. Let's say that the CD is closer to D+5 instead of D+8 without Obama. That swing would be consistent with other similar suburbs elsewhere around Chicago. Then let's say that Dold can outperform the GOP pres nominee by 5 points. In 2012 I think he beat Romney by about 7 or 8 points in his district, so 5 seems pretty reasonable. That makes the district even, so the district would need a winning Dem for pres to carry for the Dem candidate in the CD.

[moderatevoter]

Obama isnt on ballot, but Tammy Duckworth is running against Kirk; Dold's proteje.  They dont share the same beliefs as Duckworth and they dont support Public funding for abortions; & support parental notifification. That both Schneider and Duckworth can use.

I think you mean Dold is Kirk's protege, but who really knows.

[Torie]

Worth noting that even thought Obama is not on the ballot in 16, I don't foresee a major shift in the district. The Democratic Presidential candidate will win it again handily and Dold will outperform the GOP Presidential candidate significantly.

The key is that Dold will outperform the GOP nom for pres and the district will shift slightly Pub without Obama. It's the two factors added together that will help determine the outcome. Small changes in turnout can decide the race.

When you use the word handily, that has to be in the context of how the national campaign is going since PVI is measured against the national results. Let's say that the CD is closer to D+5 instead of D+8 without Obama. That swing would be consistent with other similar suburbs elsewhere around Chicago. Then let's say that Dold can outperform the GOP pres nominee by 5 points. In 2012 I think he beat Romney by about 7 or 8 points in his district, so 5 seems pretty reasonable. That makes the district even, so the district would need a winning Dem for pres to carry for the Dem candidate in the CD.

Your analysis is spot on assuming Dold runs 5 points ahead of the PVI, and there is a 3 point Pub trend in the CD, assuming that the PVI baseline is the average of 2008 and 2012 (the Dem candidate for POTUS needs 49.82% for the Dem to win in IL-10 per the number crunching below). But that assumption posits that most of the Obama favorite son effect in 2008 went away in 2012 (2.44%, with only .92% remaining). If you assume that only half of the favorite son effect went away in 2012, then the Dem for POTUS needs 50.83% for the IL-10 Dem to win. If you assume that the favorite son effect in 2008 was 5.44%, and, as was the case, 2.44% of it went away in 2012, and there is another 3% remaining (in other words, crunching the numbers with your assumptions, but assuming the PVI is based on 2012 numbers, rather than the average of 2008 and 2012), then the POTUS Dem needs 51.56% for the IL-10 Dem to win.

One never knows where the truth lies, but if I had to bet, I would assume the POTUS Dem needs about 51% of the two party vote for the IL-10 Dem to win, and that assumes that Dold only runs 5 points better than the partisan baseline, as opposed to his 7.72% outperformance in 2012. If you assume that in 2012, only 0.92% of the favorite son effect is left, that still leaves Dold running almost 7 points better. If you assume that there the amount of the favorite son effect left in 2012 is half of what it was in 2008, then you get down to about your 5 point outperformance (about 5.3 points), but than the Dem PVI goes down, and we are back to that 50.83% Dem POTUS performance number for Dold to lose, or perhaps a tad over 51%. So either way, it may well be the Dem POTUS candidate needs a bit of a winning margin to tank Dold.

Overall, it might be the most reasonable, given all the unknowns, to posit that the POTUS Dem candidate in 2016 might have to run about as well as Obama 2012, or very close to it,  for Dold to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its very hard with the anti Rauner mood; to not see Dem sweep in IL, CA, NY & MI of the competetive districts. Bill Foster's district; whom also may run for gov in 2018 maybe the one to flip to GOP aside from IL 10.