My concession on electability

[dudeabides]

Folks, for months in my personal life and on this forum, I have said that Jeb Bush is in the best position to defeat the Democrats in 2016. He has tremendous appeal to hispanic voters given his record, positions, and willingness to go where other Republicans have not. He's the kind of candidate that independent catholic voters like - a compassionate conservative. His growth message will resonate with white working class Americans who supported President Obama, but for them the economy has not improved. I still believe that Jeb Bush has a very good chance at defeating the Democrats in 2016. But, he doesn't have the best chance, he has the second best chance.

Polling out of Michigan and Pennsylvania has shown Marco Rubio with 9 point leads over Hillary Clinton, while Governor Bush is in virtual ties with her in both states. This gave me great pause and made me rethink my prior position. I am still supporting Governor Bush for President, I believe in his message. I do believe that he is far better qualified and has a better grasp of the challenges our nation faces than anyone else running, including Senator Rubio who is also a smart and thoughtful policy leader.  I am confident Governor Bush can defeat the Democrats. But Marco Rubio is in a slightly better position to do so.

Why my change of heart? First, what polls out of these two states show me is that in the rust belt, where the white working class vote matters, Senator Rubio performs better than Governor Bush. It is likely both men would win an equal number of hispanic voters, and I think Governor Bush could do slightly better with catholic voters. I believe this idea that people aren't going to vote for Jeb because he's a Bush has been greatly exaggerated by the media. However, there is a minority of people who dislike political dynasties. In a Bush Vs. Clinton election, they might stay home. In a Rubio Vs. Clinton election, they'd vote for Rubio.

Now, I do stand by my support of Governor Bush, and I also stand by my view that ONLY Rubio or Bush could defeat the Democrats. The other GOP candidates are either boring, have baggage, or are crazy.

It is also worth noting that in Wisconsin, Bush does the best against Clinton - even better than Scott Walker. But, Rubio was not polled there.

[Knives]

like no one cares mate

[Fuzzy Bear]

I will say that of the Establishment candidates, Marco Rubio is the strongest right now, all things considered.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

like no one cares mate

My thoughts exactly.

[Thomas D]

Don't worry. Rubio won't be as electable once the Democrats burry him in TV ads pointing out he wants to make sure a  12 year old who gets raped by her dad can't get an abortion.

[/]

I still think Bush is more electable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb isnt Dubya, and this isnt 2004 anymore. The worst Hilary will do is win a close election, but still wind up winning. Jeb is prone to gaffes like he did on Iraq and he is rusty. Hilary will still win.

[Mehmentum]

Right now Rubio is polling much better than Bush against Clinton, but then again, Carson is polling better than Rubio in many states.

This brings up an important fact that we all know but constantly ignore, polling doesn't really matter this far out.  Yes Carson polls really well, but that's really unlikely to continue once a campaign starts up and actual scrutiny is applied to him.

Right now Bush has a lot of scrutiny being placed on him.  As an (arguably) second tier candidate, Rubio can skate by without much criticism.  I'm still of the opinion that Rubio is probably a stronger GE candidate than Bush (and most of the rest of the field), but I have a feeling his poll numbers will come back down to earth once he starts facing scrutiny.

[Kingpoleon]

Jeb isnt Dubya, and this isnt 2004 anymore. The worst Hilary will do is win a close election, but still wind up winning. Jeb is prone to gaffes like he did on Iraq and he is rusty. Hilary will still win.

Because Hillary is so charismatic?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb isnt Dubya, and this isnt 2004 anymore. The worst Hilary will do is win a close election, but still wind up winning. Jeb is prone to gaffes like he did on Iraq and he is rusty. Hilary will still win.

Because Hillary is so charismatic?

Joe Biden will win, should he run, & I expect him to now.

[King]

If Jeb and Rubio can't get their own party to vote for them in the primaries, they're not electable.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Jeb and Rubio can't get their own party to vote for them in the primaries, they're not electable.

If one of them is to win the nomination, they'll do it through a long slugfest. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama showed that not dominating early in the calendar doesn't automatically mean you lose the GE.

[TJ in Oregon]

Bush's problem is still mostly that he is also a dynastic candidate and will be held responsible for every unpopular move his brother and father ever made. It might seem trivial compared to policy but it's certainly not trivial in how voters will shape their opinions of him. Rubio is also a better speaker, but that's secondary compared to the above.

I also think Rubio will do better among Catholic voters because he will do better among more or less everyone and not everything is identity politics.

[BlueSwan]

As a "democrat" (or rather someone far to the left of the democrats, but still supporting Clinton because I desperately don't want a republican president), I certainly fear Rubio far more than Bush. But I still fear Kasich more. In terms of chances against Clinton my rating is:

1. Kasich
2. Christie (yes!)
3. Rubio

I believe Kasich would beat Clinton. Against Christie or Rubio I think it is very even and against anyone else I would favour Clinton.

[Kingpoleon]

Jeb isnt Dubya, and this isnt 2004 anymore. The worst Hilary will do is win a close election, but still wind up winning. Jeb is prone to gaffes like he did on Iraq and he is rusty. Hilary will still win.

Because Hillary is so charismatic?

Joe Biden will win, should he run, & I expect him to now.

But you said Jeb Bush would lose due to gaffes, said Hillary would beat him, and then said Biden would beat him. This implies they have the speaking skills he doesn't have. Biden connects a lot more than Bush, but his gaffes are a lot worse.

Personally, I'd rate a Clinton-Bush Election a tossup. Neither energizes independents or base, so it would determine whose voters are dedicated if apathetic enough to vote.

[Kingpoleon]

Did we really need a press release

I like his official tone. It makes him seem sane, although his refusal to admit Bush is less experienced than nearly half the field.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

who care

[EliteLX]

All of the "who cares!?1111?" come across really noisy. It's interesting that such a strong proponent of a candidate is opening for second thoughts on someone else as far as eligibility and to spark conversation on such.

I've said Bush/Kasich before, and I'm starting to move towards Rubio/Kasich. I just don't like Rubio's lack of executive experience. If he'd of been a successful Governor like Jeb, I'd be on fire for that ticket.

[dudeabides]

All of the "who cares!?1111?" come across really noisy. It's interesting that such a strong proponent of a candidate is opening for second thoughts on someone else as far as eligibility and to spark conversation on such.

I've said Bush/Kasich before, and I'm starting to move towards Rubio/Kasich. I just don't like Rubio's lack of executive experience. If he'd of been a successful Governor like Jeb, I'd be on fire for that ticket.

Thank you. I try hard to separate my personal views and my analysis. I still think Governor Bush could win, but I have to give Rubio the #1 spot in terms of most likely to win given the things I pointed out. I completely agree with you on executive experience.

Did we really need a press release

I like his official tone. It makes him seem sane, although his refusal to admit Bush is less experienced than nearly half the field.

Thank you. Here is the thing on experience, it depends on what kind of experience you consider to be the most valuable. If years in elective office is your guide, then Rick Perry or John Kasich win. If it's years in both Washington D.C. and state government, Kasich wins. If it's years as a Governor, either Rick Perry or George Pataki win. Governor Bush has not been in elective office for the longest period of time, what I have said is that I like the fact that he's been in both the private sector and government, I think he is the best prepared for the oval office given his life experience. I don't necessarily believe being in congress prepares one to be President, I think it is far more important to be a Governor. But, in the end, what one is able to accomplish in any office or position is most important. Believe it or not, I happen to agree with Barack Obama's argument in 2008 that judgement is the most important, though I believe he lacks judgement and I believed so in 2008.