Sabato's Crustal Ball: Cruz & Kasich are Top Tier, Trump Un-nominatable

[Mehmentum]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicans-2016-what-to-do-with-the-donald/

On Trump:

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On Cruz and Kasich:

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

[The Other Castro]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

Which is exactly how Rick Santorum got the nomination in 2012. Oh wait...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Santorum was a losing senator, who lost handily in a Senate in a senate race. Trump is a conservative populist, he has a following, and he will be the GOP nominee.

[/]

Jim Gilmore is, according to Sabato, one of "The Influencers."

Let's watch Jim Gilmore influence the race...

LOL

[The Mikado]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

Which is exactly how Rick Santorum got the nomination in 2012. Oh wait...

Are you seriously comparing a candidate whose campaign was basically bankrupt and had no way of capitalizing on his surprise Iowa win except relying on SuperPac cash to Trump, a man of basically infinite financial resources?

[The Other Castro]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

Which is exactly how Rick Santorum got the nomination in 2012. Oh wait...

Are you seriously comparing a candidate whose campaign was basically bankrupt and had no way of capitalizing on his surprise Iowa win except relying on SuperPac cash to Trump, a man of basically infinite financial resources?

Am I comparing two candidates that both led in the polls but had no chance at the nomination? Yes.

[Likely Voter]

While having 2 tiers + a Trump tier is oversimplified, I cant disagree that it is extremely likely (95%+) that the eventual nominee will be one of the five 'Real Contenders' (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Cruz, Kasich).

[SamInTheSouth]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it.

No, he's not.  Trump is his own worst enemy.  He will implode soon enough.  He can't help himself.

[Phony Moderate]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

Which is exactly how Rick Santorum got the nomination in 2012. Oh wait...

Are you seriously comparing a candidate whose campaign was basically bankrupt and had no way of capitalizing on his surprise Iowa win except relying on SuperPac cash to Trump, a man of basically infinite financial resources?

Am I comparing two candidates that both led in the polls but had no chance at the nomination? Yes.

Did Santorum get 24 millions viewers to watch his debate performances? Did Santorum have billions of dollars to throw at the race? Also, Santorum's campaign virtually ended when he sounded as if he was calling Obama the n-word; Trump's campaign goes from strength to strength every time he makes an un-PC remark.

The problem with this forum is that it contains so few posters from 'Real America'. No way, in the minds of the rich liberal elite, could America ever elect such an offensive oaf. Wrong. It happened as recently as 1980 (remember that MS speech?) and it can happen again.

[BM]

The GOP/Fox News machine humoring Trump's insane ramblings during the Obama years is rearing its ugly head now. Nothing he can say will turn off his fans because they've been conditioned to believe he's just the only one willing to speak THE TRUTH!!!! They've created this monster and now there's nothing they can do to stop it!

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Anyone comparing Cain or Bachmann to Trump is completely out of touch.

[The Other Castro]

Trump isn't comparable to Santorum in many ways obviously, but the point I was trying to respond to was that a candidate won't win simply because Democrats want him to be the nominee. The RNC doesn't have total control, but there's no way that Trump would ever win the nomination.

[hopper]

Trump is going to be nominee whether or not GOP likes it. But saying he is unnominatable is false. Dems are rooting for Trump; easiest to beat.

Which is exactly how Rick Santorum got the nomination in 2012. Oh wait...

Are you seriously comparing a candidate whose campaign was basically bankrupt and had no way of capitalizing on his surprise Iowa win except relying on SuperPac cash to Trump, a man of basically infinite financial resources?

Am I comparing two candidates that both led in the polls but had no chance at the nomination? Yes.

Did Santorum get 24 millions viewers to watch his debate performances? Did Santorum have billions of dollars to throw at the race? Also, Santorum's campaign virtually ended when he sounded as if he was calling Obama the n-word; Trump's campaign goes from strength to strength every time he makes an un-PC remark.

The problem with this forum is that it contains so few posters from 'Real America'. No way, in the minds of the rich liberal elite, could America ever elect such an offensive oaf. Wrong. It happened as recently as 1980 (remember that MS speech?) and it can happen again.

Your first paragraph is spot on and I have nothing really to argue with you about there.

Your second paragraph has flaws. Reagan is an offensive oaf? Obama is more offensive than Reagan ever was. Secondly, Hispanics in New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and Nevada wouldn't give Trump enough votes in those states to win in a general election.  Also Trump has to pick up enough Black Voters in Ohio and Virginia to put him over the top there and its not gonna happen. I do think right-leaning indies as a whole dislike Trump as well just like they went against the Republicans in 2006 and 2008.  I do agree that Trump is offensive though and I would never vote for him because he is anti-Mexican and and his comment about Megyn Kelly(has blood coming out everywhere) sounded anti-woman.

[hopper]

The GOP/Fox News machine humoring Trump's insane ramblings during the Obama years is rearing its ugly head now. Nothing he can say will turn off his fans because they've been conditioned to believe he's just the only one willing to speak THE TRUTH!!!! They've created this monster and now there's nothing they can do to stop it!

Fox News created "The Trump Phenomenon"? The media as a whole created "The  Trump Phenomenon".

[hopper]

Anyone comparing Cain or Bachmann to Trump is completely out of touch.

Please Explain and go into detail....

[DrScholl]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

He is winning among white evangelical primary voters, which is the definition of the far-right demographic of the Republican Party.

[Flake]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

He is winning among white evangelical primary voters, which is the definition of the far-right demographic of the Republican Party.

*the base of the Republican Party

[Mr. Morden]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

He is winning among white evangelical primary voters, which is the definition of the far-right demographic of the Republican Party.

It’s not that he’s doing especially well among white Evangelicals though.  He’s winning them, but not by a greater margin than other demographic groups within the GOP.  Nor is he doing especially well amongst the most conservative voters within the GOP.  The latest Quinnipiac FL/PA/OH polls, for example, showed him doing about the same among “moderate” and “conservative” Republicans and among “white born again Evangelicals” and everyone else.

He’s just straight up doing well among all groups within the GOP.  Though of course “doing well” is all relative.  ~25% of the vote or whatever and a ~10 point lead is nothing compared to some of the truly dominant frontrunners we’ve seen in past elections.

[DrScholl]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

He talks tough on foreign policy as well, but the immigration issue itself is enough to secure him base votes. Plus, he's labeling himself as not being part of the establishment and that works with the hard right.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

For the time being, Trump is the front runner and it doesn't look like that is changing. He is consolidating the hard right vote like no candidate could in 2012.

A candidate who holds a hard right position on exactly one issue (immigration) is consolidating the hard right vote...uh-huh.

He talks tough on foreign policy as well, but the immigration issue itself is enough to secure him base votes. Plus, he's labeling himself as not being part of the establishment and that works with the hard right.

Hard right and people who just dislike politicians are not necessarily synonymous.

[ag]

The primary campaign, most likely, will end in a stretch of 2-person contests. And it is far from clear that Trump can win in many places in a binary vote. At this point, it would be interesting to see some polling of Jeb vs. Trump, Rubio vs. Trump, Kasich vs. Trump, etc.

Of course, if there are still great many candidates going on after the Super Tuesday, or even into mid March, this will change the calculus substantially.

Frankly, if I were a Republican party functionary right now, I would be pressuring states to move their primaries into June.

[BM]

The GOP/Fox News machine humoring Trump's insane ramblings during the Obama years is rearing its ugly head now. Nothing he can say will turn off his fans because they've been conditioned to believe he's just the only one willing to speak THE TRUTH!!!! They've created this monster and now there's nothing they can do to stop it!

Fox News created "The Trump Phenomenon"? The media as a whole created "The  Trump Phenomenon".

Yes but Fox especially had him on as a frequent guest from 2008 on because they loved the idea of a high profile celebrity businessman going after Obama and his birth certificate.

They helped fuel the fire they can no longer stop.