Hew Hampshire in 2014 and beyond?
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  Hew Hampshire in 2014 and beyond?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2015, 08:23:26 AM »

Why do everyone believe that Virginia can't be competitive???

Don't know, it just "feels" like a state that is lost for the GOP. Winning over Democratic-leaning voters around Fairfax won't be easy and the Democratic floor in the state is very, very high. 
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windjammer
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« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2015, 08:44:37 AM »

Why do everyone believe that Virginia can't be competitive???

Don't know, it just "feels" like a state that is lost for the GOP. Winning over Democratic-leaning voters around Fairfax won't be easy and the Democratic floor in the state is very, very high. 
Well, I mean, VA basically was 0.01 or 0.02 point better for democrats than average in 2012. Maybe the trend will continue but this state will remain in the toss up category.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2015, 09:36:25 AM »

Why do everyone believe that Virginia can't be competitive???

Don't know, it just "feels" like a state that is lost for the GOP. Winning over Democratic-leaning voters around Fairfax won't be easy and the Democratic floor in the state is very, very high. 
Yup. The state's D advantage isn't nearly as unstable as it is in, say, CO or FL because it's built on a large black population, kind of like Maryland, rather than Hispanics like in those other states. Even if the Republicans make inroads with Hispanic voters (not impossible), it will be nigh impossible to pry any significant number of black voters away from the Democrats. I could definitely see Virginia going Democratic even if an R wins nationally nowadays (and Ohio being closer than CO or FL since it also has a large black population with only a small Hispanic population).
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Proudconnh
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« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2015, 11:07:45 PM »

New Hampshire will probably swing Republican in 2016 if the right candidate gets the nomination, Ayotte will win the senate, but Hassan will win the governorship again, even though she's only polling as high as she is due to the  incumbent advantage. New Hampshire only seems like a liberal state because, on the national and state wide levels, we have popular incumbents who are largely democrats. But on the lower levels, we have a Republican controlled legislature and executive council (both of which Hassan blames for everything), and  polling shows the largest self identified ideology as "Independent" followed by "Moderate Conservative".  In recent national polls, some GOP candidates are leading Clinton, and those that aren't are close behind in most cases, for example Ted Cruz is down only 1%, while he was down 12% at this time last year.     
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2015, 01:04:01 AM »

New Hampshire will probably swing Republican in 2016 if the right candidate gets the nomination, Ayotte will win the senate, but Hassan will win the governorship again, even though she's only polling as high as she is due to the  incumbent advantage. New Hampshire only seems like a liberal state because, on the national and state wide levels, we have popular incumbents who are largely democrats. But on the lower levels, we have a Republican controlled legislature and executive council (both of which Hassan blames for everything), and  polling shows the largest self identified ideology as "Independent" followed by "Moderate Conservative".  In recent national polls, some GOP candidates are leading Clinton, and those that aren't are close behind in most cases, for example Ted Cruz is down only 1%, while he was down 12% at this time last year.     

My feeling is that New Hampshire is moderate conservative on economy and moderate liberal on social issues. So - a lot depends on who is "a face" of Republican party: it it will be people like former speaker O'Brien - Democrats will get rather solid majorities relatively soon. If - like pragmatic moderate conservative Jasper (as it's now) - Republicans can hold narrow advantage for some time..
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