Who do you think will win the Vienna state election ?

[Tender Branson]

To be held on October 11.



2010 results:

44.3% SPÖ
25.8% FPÖ

Current polls:

30-35% SPÖ (ca. minus 10-12%)
30-35% FPÖ (ca. plus 6%)

Historical bonus result (1973):

60.1% SPÖ
  7.7% FPÖ

...

Do you think the FPÖ actually manages to turn "Red Vienna" blue ? Or do you think the SPÖ pulls it out again in a phyrric victory ?

[Hifly]

The FPOe will probably win this one.
The only way that the SPOe redeem themselves is if they increase immigration levels; people are probably unhappy with the centre-left because there hasn't been enough immigration.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only way that the SPOe redeem themselves is if they increase immigration levels; people are probably unhappy with the centre-left because there hasn't been enough immigration.

You're partly right. The solution to the "problem" of immigration is to draw in more immigrants and naturalize them, so as to drown out the racist vote. This strategy is already starting to pay off in the US. I wish Europe was smart enough to follow suit...

As for the poll question, in case of a tie I always bet on the worst outcome, so FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

I have actually no clue how this will play out ...

Ahead of the 2010 elections, the FPÖ underpolled by 3%. But it doesn't mean that it has to be this way again. In Vorarlberg for example, they overpolled last year and some might actually switch back to SPÖ on election day - especially pissed off SPÖ-voters who are currently flirting with the FPÖ and telling pollsters so but who will hold their noses and vote SPÖ on election day.

But the trend for the SPÖ is worrying ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well no one is going to win a majority are they?

Results of the last national election in the city were SPÖ 32, FPÖ 21, Greens 16, ÖVP 14, Neos 8, Stronach 4, BZÖ 2. Social Democrats have traditionally polled much better in city elections than national ones (they have a well earned reputation for efficient local administration), but it seems as though they are being dragged down somewhat by the unpopular national government.

[Tender Branson]

The only way that the SPOe redeem themselves is if they increase immigration levels; people are probably unhappy with the centre-left because there hasn't been enough immigration.

You're partly right. The solution to the "problem" of immigration is to draw in more immigrants and naturalize them, so as to drown out the racist vote. This strategy is already starting to pay off in the US. I wish Europe was smart enough to follow suit...

As for the poll question, in case of a tie I always bet on the worst outcome, so FPÖ.

The SPÖ cannot naturalize foreigners on their own. That's the responsibility of the Interior Ministry, which is in ÖVP-hands.

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems ...

[Cranberry]

Well no one is going to win a majority are they?

No one ever wins a majority for anything on their own in Austria (not including municipal elections in some obscure small Tyrolean hamlets like Gramais or Hinterhornbach), so "win" in our context always means being the party with the largest vote share.

As for the question - I hope SPÖ, I fear FPÖ. If there's one golden rule of Austrian politics however, it's regardless of what happens, the FPÖ profits... Let's prepare for the worst and hope for better?

[DavidB.]

I might be too nitpicky, but I object to the very idea of "winning" an election in this instance, especially if the other party will be able to form a coalition anyway.

With regard to your question: probably too early to say. I'd say chances are still 60-40 in favour of the SPÖ, but I might be in a state of cognitive dissonance.

You're partly right. The solution to the "problem" of immigration is to draw in more immigrants and naturalize them, so as to drown out the racist vote. This strategy is already starting to pay off in the US. I wish Europe was smart enough to follow suit...

*sigh* This attitude is why working-class people won't vote for social democrats anymore, and opt for parties like FPÖ, SD, PVV, and Front National instead. For a change, why not convince voters instead of bringing new ones in?

[Hifly]

Thankfully Antonio is actually in a very small minority of white liberals; most committed socialists are committed to service and his opinion is marginal.
Antonio doesn't really care about policy or representation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems...

That's not the only reason I support it. I also think taking in more immigrants is morally right as well as beneficial both economically and culturally. In short, there are only advantages. The electoral marginalization of racists is only a welcome side-effect.

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems ...

That's liberals for ya

Indeed!

Liberals - bringing in new voters to win elections.

Conservatives - disenfranchising voters to win elections.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Antonio, no offense but your politics are what happens when moralistic signalling gets out of control.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, no offense but your politics are what happens when moralistic signalling gets out of control.

Why? Is being radically pro-immigration an inherently moralistic stance, can't it be defended on utilitarian grounds as well?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can we return to reality for a moment now?

[Viewfromthenorth]

For someone who is liberal in the European immigration issue, he appears to be the embodiment of "the worst people are the ones who agree with you".

To answer the original question with another question: is it possible that a lot of people will get cold feet and end up returning to the SPÖ fold at the last minute?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

But the trend for the SPÖ is worrying ...

Let them crash and burn!

The SPÖ in the city has earned their defeat, and FPÖ ending up the largest party will still result in a coalition that doesn't include them.

[Beezer]

That's not the only reason I support it. I also think taking in more immigrants is morally right as well as beneficial both economically and culturally. In short, there are only advantages. The electoral marginalization of racists is only a welcome side-effect.

Except that virtually every dataset shows that immigrants in Europe have a far lower labor force participation rate than the "indigenous" population. And how you can think that the creation of subcultures that completely reject our western values is beneficial is beyond me...but I doubt this thread is supposed to turn into a general discussion on the merits (or lack thereof) of immigration.

[Helsinkian]

The only way that the SPOe redeem themselves is if they increase immigration levels; people are probably unhappy with the centre-left because there hasn't been enough immigration.

You're partly right. The solution to the "problem" of immigration is to draw in more immigrants and naturalize them, so as to drown out the racist vote. This strategy is already starting to pay off in the US. I wish Europe was smart enough to follow suit...

Your suggestion sounds like Soviet-style politics where population transfers were used to combat "unreliable" ethnicities.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the case you guys don't get it, the tone of my post wasn't exactly serious. The substance was (I believe that more immigration would be a blessing for European societies) but the overreaction to what was only me putting that in terms designed to annoy Hifly and his fellow xenophobic trolls is getting ridiculous.

[politicus]

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems...

That's not the only reason I support it. I also think taking in more immigrants is morally right as well as beneficial both economically and culturally. In short, there are only advantages. The electoral marginalization of racists is only a welcome side-effect.

Why should it be morally right to crowd out a people in their own homeland?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Besides, it's deeply disturbing that you advocate naturalizing foreigners only for the purpose of winning elections for center-left parties. If they have to rely solely on this to win, they are politically bankrupt because it shows that they have no solutions to actual problems...

That's not the only reason I support it. I also think taking in more immigrants is morally right as well as beneficial both economically and culturally. In short, there are only advantages. The electoral marginalization of racists is only a welcome side-effect.

Why should it be morally right to crowd out a people in their own homeland?

Because I don't believe that being born on the right side of a border gives you a right to deny people who were born on the wrong side the same chances you had in your life. As long as they conform to the basic democratic rules of the place they settle in, people should have the right to live wherever they want to.

[Cassius]

What are these much vaunted cultural benefits of immigration, especially from, shall we say, non-European countries? Besides curry obviously (although that's so anglicised it's debateable as to whether it's even 'foreign' so to speak).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh yay another thread about immigration. Because we don't have enough of those.

[Zanas]

[Grabs popcorn.]
[Hey I don't even like popcorn!]
[Throws popcorn away.]

Yeah, well, Austrian politics being Austrian politics, I'd say 97% chance for FPÖ.
My predictions being my predictions, I voted SPÖ.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Oh yay another thread about immigration. Because we don't have enough of those.

It seems these days it is the only political topic people want to discuss.

[DavidB.]

Well, it was not Tender's intention.