Singapore September 11th 2015 elections

[jaichind]

Lee Hsien Loong has called an election.  Looks like he is trying to cash in on the sympathy factor for the death of his father Lee Kuan Yew as well as the 50th anniversity of the re-founding of Singapore as an independent state in 1965 from Malaysia. 

It will be interesting to see if PAP can win back Aljunied Group Representation Constituency that it lost in 2011.  I think PAP will also have a last minute process to do redistricting.   This is an old PAP trick.  Since the only way PAP can be beating is a series of seat adjustments by the various disparate opposition parties, the PAP comes out with constituency boundaries at the last minute so the opposition parities could not come up with plans on how to divide up the districts to take on PAP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's the PAP manifesto:

https://www.pap.org.sg/Upload/Manifesto/Manifesto2015.pdf

[ObserverIE]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

[2952-0-0]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

Probably not. The PAP enjoys genuine support of a clear majority and won't need to stuff any ballot boxes to win a landslide. It's more an election than event.

[warandwar]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

Probably not. The PAP enjoys genuine support of a clear majority and won't need to stuff any ballot boxes to win a landslide. It's more an election than event.

Yeah, but they turn off the electricity in areas that don't support them.

[2952-0-0]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

Probably not. The PAP enjoys genuine support of a clear majority and won't need to stuff any ballot boxes to win a landslide. It's more an election than event.

Yeah, but they turn off the electricity in areas that don't support them.

The PAP is too suave to do that. The Party provides scholarships to the highest achievers in school, to study at the world's best universities so that they would return to Singapore and enter the civil service. Hence, it can legitimately claim to be the most competent choice. Its vast patronage network also means, of course, that only by joining the PAP can anyone realistically effect change.

On the other hand, it uses its courts to disqualify opposition candidates on technicalities, harass critics with libel suits, and uses the media to highlight the opposition's unreadiness to assume power.

Once it's safely in power, it's surprisingly open to debate on actual policy matters. As long as you don't threaten their hegemony of course.

[Vega]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

Probably not. The PAP enjoys genuine support of a clear majority and won't need to stuff any ballot boxes to win a landslide. It's more an election than event.

Yeah, but they turn off the electricity in areas that don't support them.

What's the problem with that? They're just getting out the vote.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Yeah, it's something of a weird combination. PAP would definitely win a majority in a straightforward free and fair election, but still insist on an extremely short campaign period, an unfair electoral system, etc.

[ag]

Is this not more of an electoral-type event?

Probably not. The PAP enjoys genuine support of a clear majority and won't need to stuff any ballot boxes to win a landslide. It's more an election than event.

Yeah, but they turn off the electricity in areas that don't support them.

The PAP is too suave to do that. The Party provides scholarships to the highest achievers in school, to study at the world's best universities so that they would return to Singapore and enter the civil service. Hence, it can legitimately claim to be the most competent choice. Its vast patronage network also means, of course, that only by joining the PAP can anyone realistically effect change.

On the other hand, it uses its courts to disqualify opposition candidates on technicalities, harass critics with libel suits, and uses the media to highlight the opposition's unreadiness to assume power.

Once it's safely in power, it's surprisingly open to debate on actual policy matters. As long as you don't threaten their hegemony of course.

One of my strongest impressions from Singapore was how identical different anglophone papers were (given, that almost all of them share ownership, I presume the same is true in other languages). They were bland, of course: but the business paper and the Straights Times could have almost been accused of plagiarism.  And, of course, book costs: they practice censorship through pricing, it seems.

[jaichind]

For the first time ever, opposition parties will contest every seat.  Also in every seat except for one, the opposition parties coordinated to take on PAP 1-on-1.  There are a few independent candidates in a few seats but overall in almost every seat it is PAP vs one opposition party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Rough guide to the parties:

People's Action Party (79 seats): Ruling party since forever. Started out vaguely socialist but has since become technocratic centrist/conservative.

Workers' Party (9 seats): Formerly socialist now social democratic party which has come in second place in terms of votes (and usually seats) in every election since 1968, with the exception of 2001. 2001 marked a split in the party caused by a leadership change and a move towards the center.  Although it has since recovered its second place position.

Singapore Democratic Party (0 seats): Liberal party founded in 1980. Tied for second place in terms of seats in 1984 (it and the Workers' Party each had one seat), won second place in terms of seats in 1988 (again with 1 but the Workers' Party won 0), and again won second in 1991 (3 seats to the WP's 1). The party suffered a split in the mid 90s and what remains is the less pro-government result of that split.

Singapore People's Party (1 seat): Liberal party created in 1994 by a split in the Singapore Democratic Party. The Singapore People's Party is led by former Singapore Democratic Party chairman Chiam See Tong. Chaim opposed new SDP leader Chee Soon Juan's more critical attitude towards the government. Under the Chaim's leadership, the SPP formed the Singapore Democratic Alliance, which came in second in terms of votes and seats in the 2001 election. The SPP has since withdrawn from that alliance though.

National Solidarity Party (0 seats): Minor party that was member of the Singapore Democratic Alliance when it came in second in 2001.

Singapore Democratic Alliance (0 seats): Former electoral alliance of the Singapore People's Party, which came in second in 2001. At its height, it included 4 parties: The SPP, the National Solidarity Party, the Singapore Justice Party, and the Singapore Malay National Organization. The SPP and the National Solidarity Party have since withdrawn. Not sure why it continues to exist. Supposedly the Singapore Justice Party and the Mayal party are still members. Its leader is a former SPP member though.

Reform Party (0 seats): Liberal party founded in 2008 by J. B. Jeyaretnam, who was chairman of the Workers' Party from 1971 until 2001. After stepping down, he broke with the new Workers' Party leadership, feeling they had moved to far to the right. Then then proceed to bizarrely found an even less left-win party. Although there were other issues at play, with Jeyaretnam being more anti-government than the new WP leaders. Jeyaretnam died shortly after founding the Reform Party and was replaced as leader by his son Kenneth. Interesting, the Jeyaretnams are of Sri Lankan Tamil descent.

Singaporeans First (0 seats): New Party founded by Tan Jee Say. Tan was originally a personal secretary to the Prime Minister. He later joined the opposition and was a parliamentary candidate for the Singapore Democratic Party (again, the more anti-government liberal party) and then the third place candidate in the 2011 non-partisan presidential election.

People's Power Party (0 seats): New party founded by former National Solidarity Party leader Goh Meng Seng. It is obsessed with Sun Yat-sen.

[Famous Mortimer]

To sum it up even more:

People's Action Party: government
Workers' Party: pro-government centre left
Reform Party: anti-government formerly centre left
Singapore People's Party: pro-government liberal
Singapore Democratic Party: anti-government liberal
Singaporeans First: government defectors
Everyone else: irrelevant

[Oak Hills]

I didn't learn Singapore even had elections until just now.

[jaichind]

Some facts on Singapore election system

1) All Singaporeans who are 21 or over have to vote on election day or stand to lose their right to vote in subsequent polls. A list of people who didn't vote is published by the elections department after the ballot, and offenders are removed from the register of electors. Getting back on the ledger is possible only if you have a valid reason for not having voted, like delivering a baby, or are willing to pay S$50 ($35).

2) Singapore has one of the shortest official campaign periods in the world. This year, candidates will get nine days, the minimum required by the constitution, to woo voters. The country also observes a cooling off day, where no campaigning is allowed on the eve of polling day.

3) It is illegal to publish the results of an election survey or conduct exit polls once an election is called, offenses punishable with up to 12 months in jail and/or a fine not exceeding S$1,500.

4) The government created multi-member wards in 1988 where voters elect a group of candidates instead of an individual. The system requires parties to field as many as six candidates, including at least one of a minority ethnicity. While some have argued the rule makes it harder for smaller opposition parties to field candidates, it also resulted in the removal of then-foreign minister George Yeo in 2011 when the ruling People's Action Party lost in his district (Aljunied Group Representation Constituency) in the general election.

5) Singapore also reserves parliamentary seats for Non-Constituency Members of Parliament, who are the "best-losers'' among the opposition candidates. The system ensures a minimum number of opposition members of parliament after each election. While NCMPs are entitled to vote on most issues, they don't represent any particular district. There were three in parliament before it was dissolved for the upcoming election.

[ag]

When I was lthere they had just called a by-election - eventually won by the opposition. But, anyway, it is one of those electoral systems which gives opposition a chance to come to power only within a week or two of what otherwise would be a revolution. Anything short of a complete disgust of the overwhelming majority of the population leaves opposition´s task hopeless.

[Famous Mortimer]

Some facts on Singapore election system

1) All Singaporeans who are 21 or over have to vote on election day or stand to lose their right to vote in subsequent polls. A list of people who didn't vote is published by the elections department after the ballot, and offenders are removed from the register of electors. Getting back on the ledger is possible only if you have a valid reason for not having voted, like delivering a baby, or are willing to pay S$50 ($35).

2) Singapore has one of the shortest official campaign periods in the world. This year, candidates will get nine days, the minimum required by the constitution, to woo voters. The country also observes a cooling off day, where no campaigning is allowed on the eve of polling day.

3) It is illegal to publish the results of an election survey or conduct exit polls once an election is called, offenses punishable with up to 12 months in jail and/or a fine not exceeding S$1,500.

4) The government created multi-member wards in 1988 where voters elect a group of candidates instead of an individual. The system requires parties to field as many as six candidates, including at least one of a minority ethnicity. While some have argued the rule makes it harder for smaller opposition parties to field candidates, it also resulted in the removal of then-foreign minister George Yeo in 2011 when the ruling People's Action Party lost in his district (Aljunied Group Representation Constituency) in the general election.

5) Singapore also reserves parliamentary seats for Non-Constituency Members of Parliament, who are the "best-losers'' among the opposition candidates. The system ensures a minimum number of opposition members of parliament after each election. While NCMPs are entitled to vote on most issues, they don't represent any particular district. There were three in parliament before it was dissolved for the upcoming election.

The Singapore People's Party one MP is a Non-Constituency member.

[jaichind]

I guess the real win-lose threshold for PAP is will PAP lose another GRC to WP and could PAP win back Aljunied GRC from WP.  I think the PAP is not concerned about losing a single member or two to opposition if it can win back Aljunied GRC.

[jaichind]

Poll closed.  Initial results should be coming out soon.

[jaichind]

What Singapore does is to do a sample count which is a randomly selected ballots are counted first and published as soon as ready as the complete count is in progress.  Sort of like Mexico's quick count.

[jaichind]

Initial sample counts seems to show a positive swing toward PAP.

[jaichind]

Example.  MOUNTBATTEN which PAP won 58.6% in 2011.   Sample count has PAP at 72%

[jaichind]

Bukit Panjang was PAP 66.2% in 2011. Sample count has PAP at 69%

[jaichind]

Hong Kah North.  PAP was in 2011 was 70.6%.  Sample count has PAP at 74%.

[jaichind]

Pioneer in 2011 had PAP at 60.7%.  Sample count has PAP at 78%.

[jaichind]

Hougang.  This WP held seat had PAP at 38% in 2011.  Sample count has PAP at 42%.