Iowa Suffolk Poll - Hillary: 54% Sanders: 20%

[Fusionmunster]

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php
Hillary: 54%
Sanders: 20%
Biden: 11%
O'Malley: 4%
Webb: 1%
Undecided: 9%

[Skye]

Dominating!

Seriously though, what happened to Sandersmentum?

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like Sanders is stalling big time in Iowa, even while gaining nationally and especially in New Hampshire. Very good news for Clinton; things are looking very 2000-esque.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like Sanders is stalling big time in Iowa, even while gaining nationally and especially in New Hampshire. Very good news for Clinton; things are looking very 2000-esque.

Except there was no Joe Biden-like factor in 2000.

I do think it's very weird that Clinton is supposedly doing better in Iowa than she is nationally. I find it almost impossible to believe actually.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Looks like Sanders is stalling big time in Iowa, even while gaining nationally and especially in New Hampshire. Very good news for Clinton; things are looking very 2000-esque.

Except there was no Joe Biden-like factor in 2000.

I do think it's very weird that Clinton is supposedly doing better in Iowa than she is nationally. I find it almost impossible to believe actually.

It's very bizarre because I don't think anyone ever expected Iowa to be a stubborn Hillary state. It's never been super kind to the Clintons, and demographically you'd also expect it to be a better environment to Sanders. But here we are.

[Likely Voter]

Clinton supposedly has the biggest and best organized operation on the ground in Iowa and she has already started paid advertising there. And while the state is very white like NH, he doesn't have the same regional appeal and there are probably fewer latte liberals attracted to his brand. So the irony of 2016 (vs 2008) is that IA is a much better state for Hillary.

I saw reporting (cant remember where) that even Team Biden see that Hillary is already too well organized in IA and they are eyeing SC as his best chance for a first win, presumably he thinks he can peel off African Americans support due to his connection to Obama, but will they go for him if he is 0 for 2 after IA and NH?

[Crumpets]

I saw reporting (cant remember where) that even Team Biden see that Hillary is already too well organized in IA and they are eyeing SC as his best chance for a first win, presumably he thinks he can peel off African Americans support due to his connection to Obama, but will they go for him if he is 0 for 2 after IA and NH?

This obviously isn't a very close comparison, but Gingrich won SC by 13 points after coming in 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire. All it really takes is a change in media narrative and "Hillary was underwhelming in Iowa and Sanders was underwhelming in New Hampshire" might just do the trick for him.

[Likely Voter]

As noted before, African Americans (in SC and elsewhere) didn't get on board the Obama train until after Obama won IA in 2008.  I think they may be more pragmatic. I suspect they will go with whoever seems to be the mainstream leader by the time of SC. That could be Biden, but he will have to do some good media jujitsu if he has lost two states but is seen as the guy with big mo.

[Mr. Morden]

Re: The South Carolina talk: Just a reminder that the draft timelines sent by the Nevada and South Carolina Dems has Nevada going third on the calendar, and South Carolina fourth, at least for the Dems (it may be reversed for the Republicans, as we don't yet know if both parties will go on the same day in either state).  That's not finalized yet, but I would not assume that South Carolina is going to go before Nevada.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Clinton supposedly has the biggest and best organized operation on the ground in Iowa and she has already started paid advertising there. And while the state is very white like NH, he doesn't have the same regional appeal and there are probably fewer latte liberals attracted to his brand. So the irony of 2016 (vs 2008) is that IA is a much better state for Hillary.

John Heilleman also wrote that in all the townhalls, roundtables and meetings with local activists Hillary has excelled as a candidate. She has become much better at retail politics and that's obviously paying off.

[Likely Voter]

That is a good point about NV, but again I think Hillary will have the edge there due to her organization and her strength with Latinos. I would be that Hillary would get the endorsement of the culinary union and that would be that for NV. If that happens then when SC comes up Biden will be 0 for 3,  facing Hillary who is at worst 2 wins - 1 loss (NH). 

I still feel that nothing short of a criminal indictment of Hillary can stop her (and maybe pleading to a misdemeanor might not even stop her).

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Iowa President by Suffolk University on 2015-08-24

Summary:

Clinton:	54%
Sanders:	20%
Biden:	11%
Other:	6%
Undecided:	9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[JMT]

I also find it interesting how Clinton's lead is so large here in Iowa, considering she came in third in the state in the 2008 caucus. But now, it really seems like Clinton's state to loose and I think she will win it due to her strong organization in the state. And its interesting how she's been trailing in recent NH polling to Sanders, considering she won the state in the 2008 primary. I  originally thought Sanders would do better in Iowa and Clinton better in NH, but it seems to be the opposite. Also, something interesting to consider. Wouldn't it be interesting if Clinton won Iowa, Sanders won NH, and Joe Biden won South Carolina? Sure, it may not happen, but I wouldn't completely rule it out at this point. The primary would sure be a lot more interesting if that happened. 

[BlueSwan]

NH polling is notoriously unreliable though. If Hillary wins Iowa, I would definitely favour her to also win NH.

[Marokai Backbeat]

NH polling is notoriously unreliable though. If Hillary wins Iowa, I would definitely favour her to also win NH.

I tend to agree. Bernie's only hope of winning the nomination is convincing victories in both Iowa and NH. He needs that one-two punch for any hope of momentum going into the two following, minority-heavy contests. He loses either Iowa or NH and he's done, and most likely done even with them.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

YES!!!!!