Have we missed Trump's peak?

[Vosem]

On the RCP polling average, Trump's polling surge can be dated to roughly July 12, 2015. On that date, he was polling at 6.5%, buried in the field; a week later, on July 19, he was barely behind Bush 15.5%-15.0%; and, after another week, he led Bush 18.2%-13.7%. Between July 12 and August 10 (on August 10, Trump polled at 24.3%), Trump either gained or stayed stable every single day except for August 2, when he fractionally declined.

But since August 10, we have seen more than two weeks of Trump either losing support or remaining flat in the average every single day. Granted, the loss is very slow and gradual; he is currently at a national 22.0%, having lost just 2.3%. Can it be said that the Donald has already hit his peak, and is in decline bar some game-changing event?

[King]

Trump's peak is going to be 100%, when he's the only candidate left on the ballot as presumptive nominee.

[RI]

His average has only gone down lately thanks to the Rasmussen outlier.

[DrScholl]

Trump's peak is going to be 100%, when he's the only candidate left on the ballot as presumptive nominee.

Exactly.

[xavier110]

Are you that bozo Bill Kristol? Every time you say #PeakTrump, The Donald wins over a hundred thousand more disgruntled GOP voters.

[Mehmentum]

I might have agreed with you before those New Hampshire and South Carolina polls came out.  No, Trump is far from over.

[Likely Voter]

It is hard to make conclusions going just by the RCP national numbers since their average has only 3 polls in it right now (all post debate from CNN, FOX and Rasmussen) and the Rasmussen has him at just 17 (which seems like an outlier).

If you look at HuffPollster and average the six post debate polls (Ipsos, YouGov, Morning Consult, CNN, Fox, Rasmussen) you get an average of 25.3%. If you compare that to an average from the same six polls (so apples to apples) from before the debate, Trump is actually up 0.9%.

That being said, I think we wont have a real feel of Trump's numbers until we get more live phone polls (there have only been 2 since the debate).

[RI]

The new Gravis poll has Trump at 40.1% nationally. lol

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The new Gravis poll has Trump at 40.1% nationally. lol

[Likely Voter]

factoring in Gravis then Trump's post debate average is 27.4% vs. 25.1% before (with same seven pollsters).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Here are the last 13 national polling numbers for DONALD J. TRUMP

[heatmaster]

An echo In an empty vessel. August is not an accurate barometer of Trump's viability.  How big is the polling sample?  How many folks are away on holiday still? When September comes and then this leads into October and then only then if Trump is doing as well as he was before the Fox debate,  then I will take his candidacy as a serious phenomenon.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

An echo In an empty vessel. August is not an accurate barometer of Trump's viability.  How big is the polling sample?  How many folks are away on holiday still? When September comes and then this leads into October and then only then if Trump is doing as well as he was before the Fox debate,  then I will take his candidacy as a serious phenomenon.

The 40% one had 3,200+ respondents lol.

[Pandaguineapig]

Trump'surge has been over for about a couple weeks. He seems to have plateaued at around 25 percent. Don't get why this is so a herd for atlas to admit

[daverep]

"Peaked," Vosem? Let me tell you something. Trump haven't even begun to peak. And when he does peak, you'll know. Because he's going to peak so hard, that everybody in Philadelphia will feel it.

[Pandaguineapig]

Also factor in that many of Trump's supporters won't vote and he may not actually be leading

[Beezer]

There’s Evidence That Trump’s Polling Support Is Overstated



http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/upshot/theres-evidence-that-trumps-polling-support-is-overstated.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

[Likely Voter]

While those picking Trump in polls may not be 'likely voters,' that is a separate issue to whether or not he has 'peaked'

[krazen1211]

Still rolling!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hilarious thread. Glad to see the geniuses over at AAD were right.