Candidate likeliest to win in the 2016 Republican nomination?
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  Candidate likeliest to win in the 2016 Republican nomination?
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Poll
Question: Who do you think has the best chance of winning the Republican nomination - 8/25/15
#1
Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida (1999–2007)
 
#2
Ben Carson, former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins Hospital (1984–2013)
 
#3
Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey (2010–present)
 
#4
Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present)
 
#5
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard (1999–2005)
 
#6
Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (1998–2002)
 
#7
Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present)
 
#8
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas (1996–2007)
 
#9
Bobby Jindal, former Governor of Louisiana (2008–present)
 
#10
John Kasich, Governor of Ohio (2011–present)
 
#11
George Pataki, former Governor of New York (1995–2006)
 
#12
Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
 
#13
Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas (2000–2015)
 
#14
Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present)
 
#15
Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007)
 
#16
Donald Trump, Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–present)
 
#17
Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (2011–present)
 
#18
(The Wildcard) Mark Everson, former Commissioner of Internal Revenue, former President of the American Red Cross from Mississippi
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 76

Author Topic: Candidate likeliest to win in the 2016 Republican nomination?  (Read 4953 times)
Sasquatch
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« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2015, 12:45:21 AM »

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Craigo
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« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2015, 12:53:25 AM »

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

If Walker can raise a ton of money, then why hasn't he? The most recent estimate I saw was $26 million, which is peanuts compared to what Bush is raising and less even than Cruz.

Walkers campaign is nosediving and his desperation is bubbling to the surface, hence his full 360 on immigration this week. A savvier pol could turn it around, but Walker isn't ready for prime time and it shows.

1st graf: There are approximately 117 Republican candidates, and a finite amount of cash that donors are willing to fork over. Walker's advantage is that more or less all of the donors are willing to give to him specifically, even if they haven't yet - which you can't say about most of the field. He (and maybe Bush, though tea party donors might hold back) have the maximum fundraising potential, unless Trump can find a way to convert his brand name into liquid cash.

2nd graf: Agreed.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
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« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2015, 01:23:44 AM »

Jeb, followed by Rubio if Jeb can't pull his campaign together. I know the Donald is popular now, but I can't see him holding it together through February.
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Leinad
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« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2015, 04:07:19 AM »

It's really hard to tell at this point. Whoever it is, I don't think anyone has more than a 50% chance of winning--probably not even more than 40%.

Jeb!'s the establishment pick, but he just doesn't seem like a strong candidate at all.

Rubio seems like everyone's 2nd-choice, but I don't think he appeals to any specific base enough to become a consensus 1st-choice before it's too late, unless he can wrestle the establishment away from his fellow Floridian Bush.

I had Walker pegged as the favorite a couple months ago, but he's unimpressed since his announcement.

Cruz could certainly bring in support from social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, national security conservatives, and general anti-establishment people, but it would be hard to get all of them to coalesce behind him (over Carson, Huckabee, Walker, and yeah, Trump) soon enough to jump ahead in the polls. Great fundraising, though.

Trump might be the favorite. Seriously. I tend to think that the establishment will coalesce behind their guy and conservatives will find an actual conservative (it's not Trump) to coalesce behind, and Trump will fall to 3rd before he can run away with the delegates. But if he doesn't implode from now until the voting starts, he actually might be able to get a sizable delegate lead before any of this happens and ride that momentum to the nomination.
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BM
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« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2015, 05:56:44 AM »

Anyone not voting Trump is in denial.

Maybe the tables will turn on him (though all of his "controversies" have only increased his odds thus far Cheesy), but right now, it's clearly him.
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pho
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« Reply #30 on: August 26, 2015, 07:39:16 AM »

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

If Walker can raise a ton of money, then why hasn't he? The most recent estimate I saw was $26 million, which is peanuts compared to what Bush is raising and less even than Cruz.

Walkers campaign is nosediving and his desperation is bubbling to the surface, hence his full 360 on immigration this week. A savvier pol could turn it around, but Walker isn't ready for prime time and it shows.

1st graf: There are approximately 117 Republican candidates, and a finite amount of cash that donors are willing to fork over. Walker's advantage is that more or less all of the donors are willing to give to him specifically, even if they haven't yet - which you can't say about most of the field. He (and maybe Bush, though tea party donors might hold back) have the maximum fundraising potential, unless Trump can find a way to convert his brand name into liquid cash.

2nd graf: Agreed.

If the big donors were going to coalesce around Walker, wouldn't they have done it in April when he looked like a viable front runner? Now that the bottom has dropped out on his campaign, it's even harder to imagine the big establiahment donors spending the money to keep Walker propped up.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2015, 09:34:37 AM »

I voted Carson, unlikely as that may sound.
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SWE
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« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2015, 09:39:13 AM »

I could see Rubio winning by basically being everyone's second choice.
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ViaActiva
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« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2015, 12:15:23 PM »

I have a feeling that Rubio or Fiorina is going to emerge as the anti-Trump candidate. Bush is really struggling against him.
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