Candidate likeliest to win in the 2016 Republican nomination?

[Craigo]

Rubio. But before I vote, why are people suddenly saying Trump now?

Trump is running the show now. By threatening to run as an independent, he has the effective power to decide who will be the next president. If he wins the nomination, he chooses himself. If he doesn't, he chooses Clinton.

If he chooses either, he elects a Dem.

Still Bush, Walker, or Rubio, with Trump a distant fourth.

[Craigo]

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

I'd be higher on Walker if his campaigning skills were sharper. You can get away with being a bit of a dud in general elections where the divisions are much more sharply drawn, or in primaries if you have a massive cash and organizational edge. Neither applies here. Same goes Bush, who if anything has been even worse. These two are squandering their built-in advantages. Still, they both have a better shot than anyone else.

[Craigo]

I still think it'll be Walker. He can raise a ton of money and is liked by both the establishment and tea party voters. Walker was far ahead in Iowa before Donald Trump came out of nowhere to be in the lead, and I truly think likely voters will not vote for Donald Trump in the end despite his popularity now. I think Walker could still pull off an Iowa win, have a decent showing in NH, and ride that momentum to receive the nomination.

If Walker can raise a ton of money, then why hasn't he? The most recent estimate I saw was $26 million, which is peanuts compared to what Bush is raising and less even than Cruz.

Walkers campaign is nosediving and his desperation is bubbling to the surface, hence his full 360 on immigration this week. A savvier pol could turn it around, but Walker isn't ready for prime time and it shows.

1st graf: There are approximately 117 Republican candidates, and a finite amount of cash that donors are willing to fork over. Walker's advantage is that more or less all of the donors are willing to give to him specifically, even if they haven't yet - which you can't say about most of the field. He (and maybe Bush, though tea party donors might hold back) have the maximum fundraising potential, unless Trump can find a way to convert his brand name into liquid cash.

2nd graf: Agreed.