GOP or Dems: Doomed if they win in '16

[hopper]

The Presidential Penalty in the midterms seems to hurt Democrats more than Republicans. If Hillary wins in 2016, then 2018 will be an even bigger disaster than 1994, 2010, and 2014 combined. You may see a GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate, and possibly even a veto-proof majority in the House.

That said, if a Republican wins in 2016, you'll certainly see some governorships flipping, and possibly even some state legislative chambers, which make us a lot more relevant in the redistricting process, putting us on the path to eventually taking back the House.

Well yeah of late but there are exceptions like 1982 Reagan lost 28 House Seats and in 2006 the Republicans lost the US House when Bush W was President. Republicans didn't too badly in US House Elections when they had the White House in 1990 and 2002 and yes Democrats did get whipped in 1994 and 2010 but they did do well in 1998 when they had the presidency.

[hopper]

What if Hillary was surprisingly popular in 2018? The House and senate might then have minimal change and the governorships of MI WI FL could flip blue.

Yeah the MI Governorship seems to flip to the opposite every decade sort of like PA's Governorships do with exceptions so I will give you that. Pennsylvania didn't follow that trend as the Dems 2014 win put a stop to the Parties flipping control of the Governorship by decade for the first time in awhile.

WI-Wild card. Its a toss-up in my opinion.

FL-Depends who the Dems have as a candidate in my opinion.

[hopper]

The Presidential Penalty in the midterms seems to hurt Democrats more than Republicans. If Hillary wins in 2016, then 2018 will be an even bigger disaster than 1994, 2010, and 2014 combined. You may see a GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate, and possibly even a veto-proof majority in the House.

That said, if a Republican wins in 2016, you'll certainly see some governorships flipping, and possibly even some state legislative chambers, which make us a lot more relevant in the redistricting process, putting us on the path to eventually taking back the House.

No not gonna happen. Filibuster-proof US Senate Majorities don't happen that much anymore except in 2009 when the Dems had a filibuster-proof majority for like less than a year. Before 2010 the last year of a filibuster-proof majority when in the 1970's with the Dems back then.

[hopper]

Dubya had the biggest disaster of a Presidency since Buchanan -- but the $#i+ didn't hit the fan until the second term. The economy was going to implode, and the wars that Dubya bumbled into had yet to show how bad they could go until the second term. I can't imagine any President being able to get America out of the mess before 2008.

The risk for the Democrats losing in 2016 is that the Republicans get lockstep control of American politics, and with that they can entrench themselves so that they never lose a free election -- ever. They can turn the political system into a system of nearly pure patronage. They can change election laws to the detriment of any but the rich. They will not be able to fully knock the Democrats out, but they can make the Democrats about as relevant as the tame, formal opposition in China. On the other side, if the Republicans really muck up, they may foster social unrest like any unknown since the 1960s -- and in a time of far greater dangers. ISIS makes the Vietcong look like saints.

The risk for the Democrats winning in 2016 is that they get caught with the end of a long bull market. Then the Republicans get to promise economic growth without telling the rest of us that it is only for the rich -- and the rest of us get $crewed. 

It's a huge mystery, one whose result nobody can predict. 

That's going way out there.

[/]

Not necessarily

[bobloblaw]

What if Hillary was surprisingly popular in 2018? The House and senate might then have minimal change and the governorships of MI WI FL could flip blue.

Yeah, well that wont happen. Hildawg will be polling in the 30s by the end of 2017.

[bobloblaw]

The Presidential Penalty in the midterms seems to hurt Democrats more than Republicans. If Hillary wins in 2016, then 2018 will be an even bigger disaster than 1994, 2010, and 2014 combined. You may see a GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate, and possibly even a veto-proof majority in the House.

That said, if a Republican wins in 2016, you'll certainly see some governorships flipping, and possibly even some state legislative chambers, which make us a lot more relevant in the redistricting process, putting us on the path to eventually taking back the House.

No not gonna happen. Filibuster-proof US Senate Majorities don't happen that much anymore except in 2009 when the Dems had a filibuster-proof majority for like less than a year. Before 2010 the last year of a filibuster-proof majority when in the 1970's with the Dems back then.

The GOP would have close to that now if they had run better candidates in 2010 and 2012. CO, NV, IN, MO, ND, MT. There is 60.

[cwt]

Neither party would be doomed, necessarily.

The GOP president would just blame it on Obama. The Democratic president would blame it on Congress.

[hopper]

The Presidential Penalty in the midterms seems to hurt Democrats more than Republicans. If Hillary wins in 2016, then 2018 will be an even bigger disaster than 1994, 2010, and 2014 combined. You may see a GOP filibuster proof majority in the Senate, and possibly even a veto-proof majority in the House.

That said, if a Republican wins in 2016, you'll certainly see some governorships flipping, and possibly even some state legislative chambers, which make us a lot more relevant in the redistricting process, putting us on the path to eventually taking back the House.

No not gonna happen. Filibuster-proof US Senate Majorities don't happen that much anymore except in 2009 when the Dems had a filibuster-proof majority for like less than a year. Before 2010 the last year of a filibuster-proof majority when in the 1970's with the Dems back then.

The GOP would have close to that now if they had run better candidates in 2010 and 2012. CO, NV, IN, MO, ND, MT. There is 60.

CO-Maybe
NV-No, because Reid ran a great campaign and the GOP candidates in the Primary weren't that good anyway.
IN and MO-Yes
ND and MT-No, There were no other options besides Berg, and Rehberg respectively.

[hopper]

What if Hillary was surprisingly popular in 2018? The House and senate might then have minimal change and the governorships of MI WI FL could flip blue.

Yeah, well that wont happen. Hildawg will be polling in the 30s by the end of 2017.

No, Hillary is too good of a politician to ever have her approval in the 30's. The only way that that would happen is if her policies were really bad but I don't think that's gonna be the case. The only other way that could happen is a very bad recession takes very place.

[Angel of Death]

Has economics suddenly become an exact science to the point that we can accurately predict what is going to happen in a few years? That would have been a nice state of affairs to be in before the 2008 meltdown.