Would Democrats like this Virginia map?

[mencken]

VA-1: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (Whites 62%, Blacks 23%)
VA-2: Obama 56%, McCain 44% (Whites 57%, Blacks 28%)
VA-3: Obama 71%, McCain 29% (Blacks 48%, Whites 40%)
VA-4: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (Whites 60%, Blacks 32%)
VA-5: Obama 51%, McCain 48% (Whites 67%, Blacks 26%)
VA-6: Obama 41%, McCain 58% (Whites 83%, Blacks 9%)
VA-7: Obama 41%, McCain 58% (Whites 79%, Blacks 11%)
VA-8: Obama 68%, McCain 31% (Whites 55%, Hispanics 18%, Blacks 13%, Asians 11%)
VA-9: Obama 39%, McCain 59% (Whites 92%)
VA-10: Obama 56%, McCain 43% (Whites 60%, Asians 15%, Hispanics 14%, Blacks 8%)
VA-11: Obama 57%, McCain 42% (Whites 55%, Hispanics 16%, Asians 15%, Blacks 11%)

[muon2]

I doubt they'd like the Obama 50-51% districts. Those are going to be R+2 to R+3 in congressional races. It looks like it would produce a 6R-5D map. I'm sure they would rather spread out NoVa to get a clear majority in the delegation. Keep in mind that with that data Obama 53% McCain 46% is R+0.

[Nyvin]

It's extremely easy to draw 3 safe Dem seats in the southeast part of the state,  you could probably get 4 safe Dem seats in NOVA too (That one might be a bit harder).     I don't see that map being all that favorable to Dems,  more neutral than anything.

[Mehmentum]

6R-5D?

Eh, that would be acceptable.

[mencken]

It's extremely easy to draw 3 safe Dem seats in the southeast part of the state,  you could probably get 4 safe Dem seats in NOVA too (That one might be a bit harder).     I don't see that map being all that favorable to Dems,  more neutral than anything.

How do you do that without violating VRA protection?

[Torie]

It's extremely easy to draw 3 safe Dem seats in the southeast part of the state,  you could probably get 4 safe Dem seats in NOVA too (That one might be a bit harder).     I don't see that map being all that favorable to Dems,  more neutral than anything.

How do you do that without violating VRA protection?

VA has no VRA protected CD's. But that map would never be drawn by the Dems unless there were two black CD's in southside, and since there are arguably zero, it's DOA. The Dems could draw 3 NOVA CD's for themselves, and two in southside (both black). Or they could probably make 4 safe CD's for themselves, and two CD's that are rather marginal using lines that utilize the Charlottesville area to their advantage.  

Gerrymandering does not have that much action in VA really, given the need to draw black CD's. The Pubs with their 8-3 map, have 3 very marginal CD's that could flip under the right circumstances. It's on the verge of a dummymander, with two CD's only out of range because of talented incumbents, and the third just because it is a bit more Pub than the others, and may be subject to flipping now with the impending redraw. And current trends are rather hostile for them. Absent the need to draw black CD's, the Dems could draw a 7-4 map in favor of themselves, 4 in southside (I think), and three in Nova. The Richmond burbs have moved Dem enough now, that the Pubs with the right lines could be shut out in the Richmond area, assuming the right cut out of Hanover County.

[muon2]

I think that unpacking VA-8 might even yield 4 D seats in NoVa. I doubt the Dems would leave a 68% D seat up there. If they didn't go for four seats, they would certainly make all 3 NoVa seats 60%+ (ie D+7). That's the target they used for the suburban Chicago seats in 2011 (IL-8,10,11).

[Torie]

Here is a legal map for the Dems to fantasize over after the next census. Beyond having to take control of the trifecta, the only other little problem for them is that it runs the risk of an all white Congressional delegation.

VA-08 (the grey CD - I can't get the CD labels to move for the moment - that utility comes and goes for me for reasons unknown) is about 3% or so Dem PVI assuming Prince William has moved about another point Dem since 2008. If it crossed into Fairfax, it could be made totally safe. VA-04 is about 3% Dem PVI.  The Richmond metro area is not quite Dem enough yet to draw 2 safe Dem seats there. But Charlottesville comes to the rescue to just about get the job done.

Anyway, odds are it would elect 8 Dems and 4 Pubs.

[jimrtex]

Here is a legal map for the Dems to fantasize over after the next census. Beyond having to take control of the trifecta, the only other little problem for them is that it runs the risk of an all white Congressional delegation.

VA-08 (the grey CD - I can't get the CD labels to move for the moment - that utility comes and goes for me for reasons unknown) is about 3% or so Dem PVI assuming Prince William has moved about another point Dem since 2008. If it crossed into Fairfax, it could be made totally safe. VA-04 is about 3% Dem PVI.  The Richmond metro area is not quite Dem enough yet to draw 2 safe Dem seats there. But Charlottesville comes to the rescue to just about get the job done.

Anyway, odds are it would elect 8 Dems and 4 Pubs.

Perhaps neither side will be in control, and a federal court will draw a 9:3 GOP map (or perhaps 8-3-1).

First they will decide the 12th district will go in NOVA, based in Prince William. The other districts will be contracted to provide room. Logically this would begin with VA-2 and VA-9 in the furthest corners. So VA-2 shifts some of Norfolk to VA-3. VA-3 in turn does not change much. If not for the added 12th district, VA-3 would be underpopulated. Creating, the 12th district is equivalent to giving every district a 9% boost in population (or alternatively, the district size will be 8.4% less).

So there might be a minor tweak of the Richmond-Henrico interface with VA-7.

VA-9 and VA-6 will slide south, which will pull VA-10 more into the Shenadoah Valley. The new district may have to go out into Fauqier. The judges might deliberately make it competitive so as to avoid taking sides in the party battle.

[Nyvin]

Here is a legal map for the Dems to fantasize over after the next census. Beyond having to take control of the trifecta, the only other little problem for them is that it runs the risk of an all white Congressional delegation.

VA-08 (the grey CD - I can't get the CD labels to move for the moment - that utility comes and goes for me for reasons unknown) is about 3% or so Dem PVI assuming Prince William has moved about another point Dem since 2008. If it crossed into Fairfax, it could be made totally safe. VA-04 is about 3% Dem PVI.  The Richmond metro area is not quite Dem enough yet to draw 2 safe Dem seats there. But Charlottesville comes to the rescue to just about get the job done.

Anyway, odds are it would elect 8 Dems and 4 Pubs.

Perhaps neither side will be in control, and a federal court will draw a 9:3 GOP map (or perhaps 8-3-1).

First they will decide the 12th district will go in NOVA, based in Prince William. The other districts will be contracted to provide room. Logically this would begin with VA-2 and VA-9 in the furthest corners. So VA-2 shifts some of Norfolk to VA-3. VA-3 in turn does not change much. If not for the added 12th district, VA-3 would be underpopulated. Creating, the 12th district is equivalent to giving every district a 9% boost in population (or alternatively, the district size will be 8.4% less).

So there might be a minor tweak of the Richmond-Henrico interface with VA-7.

VA-9 and VA-6 will slide south, which will pull VA-10 more into the Shenadoah Valley. The new district may have to go out into Fauqier. The judges might deliberately make it competitive so as to avoid taking sides in the party battle.

Or maybe the Court will draw a 50-50 map to properly reflect the voting population of the state...no way!

Anyway, it's hilarious how much Republicans are in love with gerrymandering, but I really think those days are kinda numbered, at least in Virginia.

[Sol]

Here is a legal map for the Dems to fantasize over after the next census. Beyond having to take control of the trifecta, the only other little problem for them is that it runs the risk of an all white Congressional delegation.

VA-08 (the grey CD - I can't get the CD labels to move for the moment - that utility comes and goes for me for reasons unknown) is about 3% or so Dem PVI assuming Prince William has moved about another point Dem since 2008. If it crossed into Fairfax, it could be made totally safe. VA-04 is about 3% Dem PVI.  The Richmond metro area is not quite Dem enough yet to draw 2 safe Dem seats there. But Charlottesville comes to the rescue to just about get the job done.

Anyway, odds are it would elect 8 Dems and 4 Pubs.

Perhaps neither side will be in control, and a federal court will draw a 9:3 GOP map (or perhaps 8-3-1).

First they will decide the 12th district will go in NOVA, based in Prince William. The other districts will be contracted to provide room. Logically this would begin with VA-2 and VA-9 in the furthest corners. So VA-2 shifts some of Norfolk to VA-3. VA-3 in turn does not change much. If not for the added 12th district, VA-3 would be underpopulated. Creating, the 12th district is equivalent to giving every district a 9% boost in population (or alternatively, the district size will be 8.4% less).

So there might be a minor tweak of the Richmond-Henrico interface with VA-7.

VA-9 and VA-6 will slide south, which will pull VA-10 more into the Shenadoah Valley. The new district may have to go out into Fauqier. The judges might deliberately make it competitive so as to avoid taking sides in the party battle.

Or maybe the Court will draw a 50-50 map to properly reflect the voting population of the state...no way!

Anyway, it's hilarious how much Republicans are in love with gerrymandering, but I really think those days are kinda numbered, at least in Virginia.

Ehh, to be fair, Virginia really is a state where Democrats are rather packed in by geography. Tbh, I'm not too up on the specific legal muckedy-muck of all this VA-wrangling, but in all likelihood a fair map would probably have
-2/3 safe D districts in NOVA
-1 safe one in Hampton Roads (black influence)
-A fairly strong D-leaner in Richmond

There also might be a tossup or two in NOVA.