Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

Two states that combine for 54 electoral votes, just over 10% of all electoral votes. Same pollster, and some counter-intuitive results.

Georgia, Survey USA


49-41 Trump/Sanders


48-42 Cruz/Sanders


49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA




47% Trump -- 44% Sanders

50% Cruz --   41% Sanders

50% Rubio  -- 40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

A few comments about Georgia and the Survey USA poll:

This pollster gets no significant difference between the results for anyone against anyone. We see few polls of Georgia, a state large enough in electoral votes to have made a difference in some Presidential elections. Georgia is unlikely to make a difference this time. This poll suggests that Georgia will go to the Democratic nominee only in a landslide that results from a political collapse of the Republican nominee, something that I am unready to predict.

The maps show a slight difference between Clinton and Sanders, but that is because the Republicans so far get a solid '50' or slightly higher against Clinton and  slightly less '48' or '49', nearly clinching, against Sanders. My mapping system is rigidly quantitative, and for whatever its flaws I am unlikely to change it.

A few comments about Texas and the Survey USA poll:

As in Georgia, this poll sees no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as prospects in the general election.  But it shows differences between Cruz and Rubio on the one side and Trump on the other.

Texas is a difficult state to poll. The state straddles regions, being partially Southwestern, Southeastern, and even Midwestern. Parts of Texas are politically like Nebraska (the Panhandle), New Mexico (the Rio Grande Valley), and Alabama (rural East Texas). Is the Dallas-San Antonio-Galveston triangle like anything else in America, politically? The state is rarely in play, so it typically gets little attention in Presidential politics except  in the primary and if someone running is from Texas.


How rarely is the state in play? Obama, one of the slickest Presidential campaigners ever, lost it 57-41 in 2012 and 55-44 in 2008 (the latter one of the worst political climates for Republicans in recent decades). Kerry lost it 61-38 and Gore lost it 59-38, which may reflect some Favorite Son effect. Bill Clinton lost Texas 49-44-7 (the "7" is Ross Perot) in 1996 to Bob Dole. Bill Clinton was about as good a match for Texas political culture as any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ, but he still lost Texas in a near-landslide election. He lost Texas  41-37-22 (again, the "22" is for Perot) facing two Favorite Son nominees in 1992. 1992 was close for Clinton, but put the combined votes for Bush and Perot of 1992 together and you have roughly the margins by which Dubya won Texas in 2000 and 2004.

At this stage I look for margins. Ted Cruz would qualify as a Favorite Son by the same standards that apply to Dubya, but he does not project to win Texas by anywhere near the margins that I associate with Dubya, neither a great politician nor even a good President. A Republican Presidential nominee winning the state by roughly 10 points will make his concession speech while most adults are still awake on the East Coast. Marco Rubio projects about as well as Ted Cruz in Texas.

SUSA shows absolutely execrable results for Donald Trump in Texas. He projects to win Texas, but not by much. As Trump begins to appear as the near-certain nominee for President, he shows his weakness as a nominee. This is more blatant than in Georgia. Texas has a huge Mexican-American minority, and it is usually much less solid in its Democratic voting than is the huge Mexican-American minority in California. Donald Trump can change that so that Mexican-Americans in Texas will vote like Mexican-Americans in California.

The difference between Mexican-Americans in Texas and Mexican-Americans in California is that Texas did not endure the financial collapse of 2008 as did California. Texas had a crash similar to that of the US in 2008 in the 1980s, also involving real estate speculation, and it led to major reforms of the banking and real estate industries that shielded Texas from the calamities that befell Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada (which have large Mexican-American populations) in 2008. Mexican-Americans are the people most likely to buy into real estate at any level of income, and are often the poorest people to buy it in any community. Mexican-Americans in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada were more likely to buy into the real-estate bubble and get ruined when the bubble collapsed. Mexican-Americans found qualifying for real-estate loans in Texas much more difficult; furthermore they were unable to borrow against equity in housing with inflated valuation (a Texas reform) that would get them in even worse trouble. So Mexican-Americans in Texas did not get as badly burned in Texas as elsewhere in America.

This time it could be Donald Trump threatening mass deportation of 'illegal aliens' even if such implies the breakup of intact families. Mexican-Americans are more likely to know and have relationships of at least friendship with illegal aliens. Ask yourself whether the first thing that you ask on a date is about 'citizenship status'.       

[pbrower2a]

Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Same pollster, this time with Sanders.

Sanders 48, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Cruz 43
Sanders 46, Rubio 44
Sanders 47, Carson 43
Kasich 44, Sanders 43

http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf

MRG, Michigan. No Sanders and no Kasich. One of the many pollsters that do Michigan only, and not very reliably.  

Clinton 44%
Trump 39%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 39%

Rubio 43%
Clinton 41%i

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MRG_MI_Poll_Spring_16_Pres_Prim-FINAL.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9, southern New Hampshire)

Clinton 47, Trump 39

Clinton 45, Rubio 43

Clinton 46, Cruz 35

Kasich 47, Clinton 37

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714

Colorado, On-Sight Public Affairs (D)

49% Clinton
39% Trump

http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/KR-ONSIGHT-3-2-2016-XTABS.pdf

Limited data, but a 10% lead for Clinton against Trump suggests that Colorado will not be an easy pickup from 2012 for Republicans. I have cause to discount the blue shades for Cruz and Rubio against Clinton with this poll, so I am graying them out. 


I would love to have seen how Sanders does and how both do against Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio... but even if there is a D bias in the pollster, a 10% advantage is good enough to suggest that Colorado will be troublesome for Republicans.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, WMUR-TV. ABC 9 in southern New Hampshire.

Sanders 55, Trump 34

Sanders 54, Rubio 35


Sanders 60, Cruz 28 (LOL)


Sanders 48, Kasich 40


http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won

[pbrower2a]

Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won

Well, Ben Carson dropped out.

...I am slow to deem a campaign over. Basically when the money runs out so does the campaign.

Donald Trump obviously has a much-higher-than-50% chance of winning the nomination. He has done well in Republican primaries and caucuses in all parts of the country. He seals the election if he gets 37-35-30 wins in some winner-take-all states. There is some effort at a Stop Trump campaign; I doubt that it can succeed.

Cruz and Rubio have to do extremely well to have any chance. Kasich must do freakishly well to win. Basically Cruz and Rubio would both have to unite behind Kasich, who seems neither a fanatic nor a hack.

Cruz seems like a new Barry Goldwater, only nastier. Rubio claims to be a veritable reincarnation of Ronald Reagan -- but Reagan was a far shrewder politician. A hint about Ronald Reagan: Barack Obama has much the same skills. Kasich is closer to being an orthodox Reaganite than Trump, Cruz, or Rubio.

It is easier to come from behind if one has a four-way race for the nomination than if one has a two-way contest. In a strict two-way contest it is nearly impossible to win without getting an absolute majority. I have noted that the Democratic Party relies heavily upon the votes of ethnic minorities, and those ethnic minorities have concerns other than economic equity -- like police brutality and the quality of education. 

Being down 37-5 in the delegate count early in a 4-way contest may be less of a doom  than being down 52-47 in a binary contest at the same time. Neither Sanders nor Clinton can seek support from the supporters of those whose campaigns have failed.     

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Marist: Big leads for either Clinton or Sanders against Cruz or Trump.

Clinton 52 - Trump 36
Clinton 48 - Cruz 41

Correction of the polling map in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

Note that Kasich is far more credible than other Republicans in New York, and probably also in the northeastern quadrant of the US and on the West Coast.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson University (Trump match-ups only)

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Marist, Michigan.

Sanders 56 - Trump 34
Sanders 54 - Cruz 36

Really quick call in November. Sanders suggests at the least a 2008-style win.With Michigan going by this margin, the Republican nominee will have a tough time winning INDIANA.


Correction of a poll in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

CNN by ORC International. Florida and Ohio.

OHIO:

48-46 Clinton/Rubio
50-43 Clinton/Trump
51-42 Clinton/Cruz

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/reloh1ohio.pdf

FLORIDA:

50-43 Clinton/Trump
46-47 Clinton/Cruz
44-48 Clinton/Rubio

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/relfl1florida.pdf

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

So much for the obsolete polls showing Clinton losing Pennsylvania.

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 40%

Clinton (D): 46%
Rubio (R): 40%

Clinton (D): 48%
Cruz (R): 37%

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--march-2016

There will be other polls of the Keystone State.

Ohio, PPP:


Clinton 44, Rubio 41
Clinton 45, Trump 40
Clinton 45, Cruz 40
Kasich 52, Clinton 37



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/likely-portmanstrickland-race-starts-as-toss-up.html


This suggests a gigantic Favorite Son effect for Governor Kasich. Kasich could lose nationally yet win Ohio.

Missouri, Remington Research (whatever that is):

Q: If the candidates for President of the United States were the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 43% Hillary Clinton: 38% Undecided: 19%

...

Survey conducted March 3 – March 4, 2016. 903 likely voters participated in the survey.

http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/MOScout-Weekly-Poll-March-5.pdf

Weak (leader under 45%), and this is the only matchup offered. 


     

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, PPP.

Sanders 42, Rubio 38
Sanders 44, Trump 40
Sanders 44, Cruz 38
Kasich 54, Sanders 34

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/likely-portmanstrickland-race-starts-as-toss-up.html

One map for only one poll, but the state is Ohio. 

I question whether people really know Bernie Sanders well in Ohio, even if he fared well in Michigan. Abysmal showings for Republicans other than Kasich suggest that those Republicans have even bigger problems. Ohio is typically about R+2.

The usual value of a Favorite Son effect is about 10%; Kasich goes far beyond this. He could be the first Republican nominee for President to win the state yet lose nationally since Richard Nixon. George W. Bush came close to that in 2000. The other Republicans may be seen as failures in the Buckeye State.

No Republican projects to lose Ohio yet win the Presidency. The bellwether status of Ohio will remain intact unless by some miracle Kasich wins Ohio after winning the Presidential nomination. (Kasich now seems more likely to win the Presidency if nominated than any other Republican still running, but that ends if he loses Ohio in the winner-take-all primary).   



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, SurveyUSA:

* Kasich 15 points ahead of Clinton, 53% to 38%.
* Trump 7 points ahead of Clinton, 49% to 42%.
* Cruz 4 points ahead of Clinton, 47% to 43%.
* Rubio 2 points ahead of Clinton, 45% to 43%.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=822bfd58-a858-4a72-9c64-b41906668af9&c=211


     

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, SurveyUSA

* Kasich 13 points ahead of Sanders, 52% to 39%.
* Trump 3 points ahead of Sanders, 47% to 44%.
* Cruz and Sanders tied, 45% each.
* Sanders 3 points ahead of Rubio, 46% to 43.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=822bfd58-a858-4a72-9c64-b41906668af9&c=211


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri -- Docking Institute, Fort Hays State University (Kansas)

43% Trump
38% Clinton

51% Cruz
34% Clinton

49% Rubio
31% Clinton



The Docking Institute of Public Affairs Poll at Fort Hays State University in Kansas of 483 Missourians was conducted March 3-10, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Margin of error among Republican respondents was plus or minus 7 percentage points, among Democrats it was 8 percentage points.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/missouri-poll-results/pdf_403071e8-60bd-5830-ad9e-0364a168dc67.html

Huge margin of error. We have only one very limited poll of Missouri from a pollster of which we know little. That is Trump vs. Clinton, and it fits the same category as this one.  Cruz is strong; Rubio has yet to show collapse. Nothing on Kasich.

I am slow to rule people out, bit the Republican contest is likely to go from four-way to three-way or even two-way by this time next week. 


     
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

MO -- Docking Institute, Fort Hays State University (Kansas)

43% Sanders
40% Trump

45% Cruz
36% Sanders

43% Rubio
37% Sanders

The Docking Institute of Public Affairs Poll at Fort Hays State University in Kansas of 483 Missourians was conducted March 3-10, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Margin of error among Republican respondents was plus or minus 7 percentage points, among Democrats it was 8 percentage points.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/missouri-poll-results/pdf_403071e8-60bd-5830-ad9e-0364a168dc67.html

Apparently Donald Trump has exposed his personality to the Show-Me State, and Missourians don't like what they see. Sanders is much more electable in Missouri for now. Rubio has yet to collapse in Missouri.  

How long has it been since the Republican nominee has won nationally without Missouri? 1956! That will definitely hold this time.

Marist, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Registered voters.




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Marco Rubio, defeated in the Florida primary that he absolutely had to win, can now be dropped from my map of match-ups.
     
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Update to recognize that whatever chance Senator Marco Rubio had of winning the Republican nomination for President is now gone.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

The Math on the GOP side.

“Mr. Trump needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,237 required for the nomination, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. That would be difficult, given Mr. Trump’s margins of victory in states up to now, but not impossible.”

“Mr. Cruz would have to take a daunting 83% of the delegates remaining. It is mathematically impossible for Mr. Kasich to win enough delegates from the states left to get to 1,237, so his only hope of gaining the nomination is to win it at the convention if Mr. Trump fails to amass a majority of delegates.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-keeps-up-pressure-on-wary-republicans-1458176661

[pbrower2a]

Arizona:

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Cruz (R): 41%
Clinton (D): 35%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

I don't know this pollster -- but Cruz' lead is very weak considering that the state is Arizona. He's not going to win nationwide if he wins Arizona by only 6%. For Trump this is an execrable performance. Because business journals usually have a conservative bias, I suspect that this might be on the rosy side for Republicans.

The difference between Trump and Cruz is not likely Hispanics (in Arizona, that is largely Mexican-Americans); Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans. I suspect that it is the usually-arch-conservative LDS voters who have disdain for one of the least Mormon-like Republican nominee since Mormons went Republican in the early 1950s.

Utah: KSL-TV NBC-5, Salt Lake City



Also -- Clinton 38 - Trump 36

38-36 counts as a tie in my scheme. (I am guessing that there would be lots of write-in votes for Mitt Romney).


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona:


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Sanders has a slight lead against Trump, but he has yet to reach 40%. Thus I show Arizona as a tie for now for Trump vs. Sanders.  

Utah, KSL-TV (NBC-5, Salt Lake City)/Deseret News. Republicans other than Trump do OK -- and Trump does execrably.
 



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Can you imagine? Donald Trump could actually underperform Barry Goldwater (who lost almost 55-45 in 1964) in Utah.

Cruz and Kasich pose no such problem.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

The strongest Republican candidate for President in North Carolina is the one the party is least likely to nominate. John Kasich is the only hopeful in either party with a positive favorability among voters in the state- 36% have a good opinion of him to just 31% with a negative one. He leads Hillary Clinton 49/41 and Bernie Sanders 44/41 in hypothetical contests in the state. His lead over Clinton among independents is 59/26.

It looks like Republicans are going to nominate either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz though, and they both trail the Democratic candidates by small margins. Clinton leads Trump 44/42, and Sanders has a 48/41 advantage over him. While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if he was the nominee and that was an option for them. Clinton and Sanders each lead Cruz by identical 45/42 spreads. Republicans are heading in a direction that puts North Carolina on the board for Democrats this fall, even though they have a candidate running who might be able to take it off the board.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Emerson College, Wisconsin:

Clinton (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

Clinton (D): 46%
Cruz (R): 45%

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Maine, Critical Insights

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 34%

Bernie Sanders (D): 57%
Donald Trump (R): 31%

(I assume that Maine's two districts would be close to voting alike, which I would not say about the three districts of Nebraska). 



http://static.bangordailynews.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/115/files/2016/03/CI-Tracking_Spring-2016.pdf?ref=inline


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.