Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota.

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Indiana. Marist. Are we going to see lots of polls of Indiana this year?


Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356

Ohio, PPP. I have much more to say below involving Hillary Clinton.  

Sanders 44 Trump 35
Kasich 47 Sanders 37
Sanders 45 Trump 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf

West Virginia, PPP:

Donald Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 57%-30% (R+27)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 44%-31% (R+13)
John Kasich (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 52%-27% (R+25)

Donald Trump (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 56%-35% (R+21)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 40%-39% (R+1)
John Kasich (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 48%-31% (R+17)

Obama approval rating: 28/67 (-39)
Clinton favorability: 23/71 (-48)
Trump favorability: 47/45 (+2)
Cruz favorability: 21/64 (-43)
Kasich favorability: 32/47 (-15)
Sanders favorability: 30/60 (-30)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

I have much to say about Donald Trump and the demise of the Democratic Party in West Virginia in a subsequent post.  When West Virginia ever goes Democratic again, it will be for a fiery populist who can address the economic issues of West Virginians.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Ohio, PPP.

Conducted April 26-27, MoE +/- 3.2%

Clinton 45%
Trump 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf

What I said of an Indiana poll in which Donald Trump and Ted Cruz get single-digit leads applies here: a Republican needs to win Indiana by a double-digit lead in Indiana to have a chance of winning Ohio and nationwide. Indiana is about R+12 in PVI; Ohio is typically about R+2. This is close, but it is far easier to get to 50% in a two-way race from 45% than it is to get to 50% in a two-way race from 42%.

Republicans are not doing all that well in Ohio.  Best news for Ohio Republicans is that Governor John Kasich has a 46% approval rating. That's good enough for likely re-election. But the US Senator up for re-election has an execrable approval rating (32%).  President Obama has an approval rating of 44%, indicating that he is not a real drag on Democratic efforts to win the state. He is successful enough as President that were it not for the 22nd Amendment and he chose to break the precedent that every President except FDR honored, he would have about an even chance of winning Ohio and a better-than even chance of winning nationwide.

Of increasingly-marginal interest, Hillary Clinton leads Ted Cruz 44-35 and approaches electability in Ohio against Governor Kasich 43-41.  For a Favorite Son, being up only two points in one's own swing State does not bode will in a national election.

My assessment that John Kasich would beat Hillary Clinton over the the last couple of months is now obsolete. A Favorite Son usually shows about a 10% advantage in statewide polling over other potential nominees in the same year or against those in preceding or following elections. Kasich is not doing significantly better than Donald Trump and not that much better than Romney 2012. (Between years? For a winner, George W. Bush did about 10% better than Dole did in Texas and about 10% better than John McCain would do in Texas. For a loser, George McGovern did much better in South Dakota than in most surrounding states (doing almost as well in South Dakota as in Minnesota).  

You see it here: the Kasich campaign for President is collapsing.   49% of Ohioans want Governor Kasich to abandon his Presidential campaign.  

Good news about the race for the US Senate in Ohio in 2018, though: Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has only a 42% approval rating. The 2018 midterm elections could again be brutal for Democrats.  

Florida. This is by a Republican-leaning BUSINESS lobby.

Just read this prose:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/05/8598048/florida-poll-republican-brand-damage-bolsters-clinton  

The words "panic" and "lament" come to my mind. This is by a group that clearly has a Republican bias, and I would not use it if it went the other way. To compensate for a loss of Florida and its 29 electoral votes, Republicans would have go  to back to the Bush vs. Gore map and swing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
 

California.

Clinton: 56%
Trump: 34%

Clinton: 57%
Cruz: 29%

Clinton: 53%
Kasich: 34%

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/

Yawn.

Idaho -- Dan Jones

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Very weak showing for Donald Trump in what has long been one of the most reliable states for Republican nominees for President.  Other Republicans do about as expected for Idaho.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia, PPP:

Donald Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 57%-30% (R+27)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 44%-31% (R+13)
John Kasich (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 52%-27% (R+25)

Obama approval rating: 28/67 (-39)
Clinton favorability: 23/71 (-48)
Trump favorability: 47/45 (+2)
Cruz favorability: 21/64 (-43)
Kasich favorability: 32/47 (-15)
Sanders favorability: 30/60 (-30)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

Twenty years ago I would have never expected West Virginia to be anywhere near the best state for a Republican nominee for President. In 1996, West Virginia gave Bill Clinton an absolute majority in the popular vote. It has since swung far to the Right in its political orientation.

No, it is not some Deep South state that has a legacy of Jim Crow. West Virginia seceded from Virginia during the Civil War. The state used to rely heavily upon mining and heavy industry for employment, such making it one of the most unionized states in America. Now its Republican-dominated State legislature has transformed the state into a Right to Work (for starvation wages) state.

West Virginia now has most of the demographic tendencies that favor Republicans today. It has small minority populations, it is a hotbed of Protestant fundamentalism, it has far-below-average measures in educational achievement, and it has few (and not really large) urban areas. It is a state largely of poor whites who might have voted for Carter in 1976 and 1980 (it was one of six states to vote for Carter in 1980!) and Bill Clinton twice.

Yes, it is poor. Income may be a bit higher than in Mississippi, but on measures of human development (The Measure of America, 2013-2014) it is third from the bottom. West Virginia is much whiter than its neighbor Virginia, and white people fare better than blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans throughout America. But if white privilege is a reality. it seems to have passed West Virginia by. White people in West Virginia are the least well-off white people in America. Black people in neighboring Maryland fare better than white people in West Virginia. Statistically an average white person in West Virginia would be better off to assimilate into the black population of Maryland. (Maryland has a large black middle class; West Virginia seems to not have much of a middle class of any kind). 

West Virginia may reflect political failure -- failure that began when the Democrats really dominated statewide politics. The Democrats failed to invest in education, public health, and even roads. Standing up for labor was enough. Now working people in West Virginia have a hostile government in which a coal baron Don Blankenship has been pulling the strings on West Virginia politics. (Has been -- because he is likely to go to prison, having been convicted of coverups involving mine safety in incidents that have led to mining catastrophes. This is the sort of person unlikely to get any sympathy from Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama isn't a soft-on-crime type, and having been a political enemy will not help Mr. Blankenship).

Don Blankenship? He had better do some heavy-duty praying for mercy from the Almighty, lest he discover some environment far nastier than a coal mine once he dies. 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

I am averaging in  a very flattering poll for Clinton in North Carolina (Civitas) and I found that Bernie Sanders was within the margin of error against Trump in Idaho.

With the departures of Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the Presidential race, we are down to this:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[Dr. Arch]

Those are very pretty maps.

[Badger]

Not to throw fuel on the fire, but can we all just please acknowledge reality and just update a single Trump vs. Hillary map?

If anyone wants to make ongoing Trump vs. Bernie maps they should do it in alternative timeline thread.

[pbrower2a]

Those are very pretty maps.

I did not make these maps for esthetic delight. I may take up painting, and I might consider maps a good object of painting. It wouldn't take much effort for me to do better than this.

Not to throw fuel on the fire, but can we all just please acknowledge reality and just update a single Trump vs. Hillary map?

If anyone wants to make ongoing Trump vs. Bernie maps they should do it in alternative timeline thread.

I go with formality. I am slow to drop candidacies for President, and generally don't do so until I see someone clinching the nomination or formally ending a campaign (as in "suspending" a campaign, endorsing a recent rival, or otherwise quitting). I have not seen anyone die while in a campaign, and that would count.

In any event, I have a use for the Kasich-Clinton polls -- suggesting how 2020 would turn out if the winning Democrat has a failed Presidency. Sanders-Trump? I show in that what a Trump collapse would look like in November. Sanders barely won in Indiana, keeping his campaign nominally alive. Trump won the winner-take-all Indiana primary, basically ending any chance for Cruz or Kasich.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is gonna flip. Graham who has come out against Trump and McCain who refuses to endose Trump spell volumes

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, three big states

Florida

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 39%

Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%



Sanders vs. Trump:

Florida

Sanders (D): 44%
Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Sanders (D): 43%
Trump (R): 41%

Pennsylvania

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345

Quinippiac seems to get some of the most R-favoring results in polling.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana:

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf

Trump 52%
Clinton 36%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 8%

Trump 55%
Sanders 32%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 10%

Oregon -- Oregon Public Broadcasting.

Clinton 43
Trump 32

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

PPP will do polling of Arizona this weekend.

Could someone please poll:

Arkansas
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
Tennessee
Virginia

both Dakotas

[pbrower2a]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution; Hillary down 3 to Trump , Sanders up 4.

Utah: Dan Jones

Donald Trump 43%
Hillary Clinton 30%

Donald Trump 43%
Bernie Sanders 37%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9518-

Tepid.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%

This is a three-way poll, and it shows how far behind Donald Trump will be in New Mexico.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Arizona, PPP:

The Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. There's a significant 'Never Trump' contingent among Arizona Republicans. While Clinton gets 80% of the Democratic vote, Trump is only getting 68% of the GOP vote at this stage. That number tracks with our finding that just 65% of Republicans say they're comfortable with Trump as their nominee to 22% who say they aren't. When you narrow the field to just Clinton and Trump though, Trump's lead goes up to 45/41 because his share of the GOP vote increases to 77%. 15% of Republicans are undecided compared to 8% of Democrats, so if the party really unites around Trump eventually he'll get close to being up by the kind of margins Republicans are accustomed to in the state but for now it's tight.

WBUR poll of NH, conducted May 12-15:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/05/Topline-2016-05-WBUR-NH-General-1.pdf

initial preference:
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

including leaners:
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%

...Could it be possible that what seemed like the "new normal" of the Democrats  and Republicans getting overwhelming advantages in most states that they win, with very few states being truly contested, could be  coming to an end? Could it be that Barack Obama is, whatever his virtues, the most polarizing Presidential nominee that America has ever had?

Hillary Clinton seems to be winning, but not by as great margins, most of the states that Barack Obama won, but by far narrower margins. She also seems to be losing much the same states as Barack Obama lost, but also by far smaller margins. Maybe one can impute that to people having a visceral dread and loathing of Barack Obama due to ethnicity  in some places and looking at policy and not ethnicity in other places.

Say what you want about Barack Obama being above average in just about all matters that concern most Americans (economic stewardship, a cautious but decisive foreign policy, avoidance of scandal and corruption,  respect for precedent, working well with the intelligence agencies and the Armed Forces, and taking the side of social progress on social issues as the political culture changes), Barack Obama is the most polarizing President since Lincoln.

Making any further comparisons between Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln is blasphemy. The polarization in part represents campaign strategies of Barack Obama -- play well to crowds in medium to giant cities and their suburbs and abandon rural America. Except for Arizona, Texas, and Utah, such allows him the ability to win the most urban of states. It also ensures that he gets clobbered elsewhere. It also means that the Right can utterly destroy Democrats in Congressional elections in any Congressional district that is significantly rural.

Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a politician as Barack Obama has been.  She is also more likely to win a state like Michigan by 6% instead of by 16% and lose a state like Tennessee by 6% than by 16%. Barack Obama played a beat-the-cheat strategy in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton seems to trust in being on the right side of history more than in any coherent political strategy.

     



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma, -Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

Trump 48%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 6%
Undecided 18%

http://newsok.com/article/5498100

One of the last states from which I would expect a poll.

One of the last five states in which I would expect Hillary Clinton to have a chance. Trump will win it, but perhaps not by the 60% or higher levels that one usually expects.  

    



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Indiana: Bellwether Research, Trump 40, Clinton 31. 

Tennessee, Vanderbilt University:

Trump 44
Clinton 35
 



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(NO LONGER SHOWN)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





[/quote]
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Ohio, CBS/YouGov

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-poll-ohio-and-florida-show-tight-races-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/


Florida:

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 42%

Ohio
Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%

Wisconsin:

Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

A state that was extremely close in 2000 and 2004 isn't close this time.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

How  much of a killer is Florida to the chance of Donald Trump for President? Based upon electoral votes that have not changed hands since the 2000 election, Democrats have an edge of 242-179. Florida has the 29 electoral votes that put Hillary Clinton over the top -- even without New Mexico, which is likely about as gone for the Republicans as Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, or West Virginia.
 

If Donald Trump loses Florida, then he must pick up some state that has not voted for any Republican after 1988.  So which state will it be? Iowa and New Mexico have gone for a Democratic nominee for President except in 2004, and New Hampshire has missed only once. New Mexico looks "gone" for the Republicans, and I don't have to put its electoral votes into the "iffy" category.  

So which state or combination of states would it be?

Addendum (4/25/2016): Not Wisconsin.

[pbrower2a]

I got polled on Friday night in Michigan...so look for some polling of Michigan.

PPP offers a poll of North Carolina from this weekend.

[Dr. Arch]

I got polled on Friday night in Michigan...so look for some polling of Michigan.

PPP offers a poll of North Carolina from this weekend.

Fingers crossed. This will give us a good idea as to how things are in the ever pipe-dream for Trump that is Michigan.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Donald Trump (R): 47%
Hillary Clinton (D): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 40%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Bernie Sanders (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-burr-have-small-leads-in-north-carolina.html


I'm going with the three-way choice. Trump will need to win NC by about 7% to have a real chance nationwide.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Ljube]

I'm going with the three-way choice. Trump will need to win NC by about 7% to have a real chance nationwide.

That's assuming a uniform swing. I think that assumption with Trump is wrong.

[pbrower2a]

2004, NC   -- 56  Dubya, 43 Kerry.
2000, NC   -- 56  Dubya, 43 Gore


To win the Presidency, Trump needs to win all the potentially-critical states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia... or make big strides in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania that have not gone for a Republican nominee for President more than once since at least 1988.

[pbrower2a]

California, PPIC:

Conducted May 13-22, MoE +/- 4.3%
Clinton 49%
Trump 39%

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

Not so overwhelming.


New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson University.

Clinton 48%
Trump 37%

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

Likewise.

Virginia, Gravis Marketing:

Clinton 45
Trump 41

Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 6

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/

I doubt that there will  be many states in which Johnson makes a difference.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Glengarriff, Michigan

2-way:

43% Clinton (D)
39% Trump (R)

52% Sanders (D)
33% Trump (R)

3-way:

37% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)

...

Favourable Ratings:

50-40 Obama
43-41 Sanders
33-49 Snyder
31-57 Clinton
27-60 Trump

...I got polled on this one! I'm guessing that "43" is the floor for Clinton -- and in view of the large number of blacks in Michigan, "39" is close to the ceiling for Trump.

At this point I see three-way races in which Gary Johnson gets more than 10% of the vote in Michigan. He's probably getting more support from the usual voters for Republican nominees. 33% Johnson and 12% Trump is close to what we would expect near the top for the non-Democratic vote in Michigan.

California, Marist, NBC/Wall Street Journal

Clinton 55, Trump 31

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314520082/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-California-Poll-Annotated-Questionnaire-June-2016

Georgia, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/trump-has-solid-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia.html

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 38%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: 2%


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, CT

Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Donald Trump (R): 38%


http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2355

Florida, PPP: Trump 41, Clinton 40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/pennsylvania-close-sanders-supporter-unity-would-make-it-not-close.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41

Head to head, they're tied at 44-44.

Sanders vs Trump head to head is 51-39.

Only 72% of Sanders supporters support Clinton. If Clinton got half of them, her lead over Trump head to head would be 47-40.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Zogby, Kansas.

Clinton 43
Trump 36

http://www2.ljworld.com/weblogs/capitol-report/2016/jun/10/poll-shows-clinton-leading-in-kansas-bro/

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Donald Trump (R): 35%
Gary Johnson (L): 7%
Undecided: 12%

Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County. Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by ten points, 45-35, among Downstate voters

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2016/06/10/featured-articles/richmiller/capitol-fax-poll-voters-blame-michael-madigan-for-budget-mess/59655/

Hard to believe. Don't like it? Just wait for another poll.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Dr. Arch]

The continuity in that map after the addition of Zogby's results is absolutely splendid.