Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

Utah, Dan Jones:

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http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7101-poll-jeb-bush-would-demolish-hillary-clinton-in-utah

My comment: Donald Trump would be the worst Republican nominee for Utah since Barry Goldwater. His heavy investments in casinos infamous for smoking, drinking, and gambling are anathemas to LDS sensibilities. That Jeb Bush does so much better demonstrates that Practically any other Republican makes Utah solid R, as usual.  

New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire



http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/25/politics/poll-new-hampshire-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html
http://cola.unh.edu/survey-center/biden-clinton-sanders-lead-trump-hypothetical-2016-matchups-92515
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_presgen092515.pdf

Clinton 50 Trump 42
Sanders 57 Trump 37
Biden 56 37 Trump

In the Clinton Trump matchup, men favor Trump 54-38, women favor Clinton 62-31.


http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NH/president/

The thrill is gone with Trump, and Hillary Clinton shows weaknesses.

Iowa, PPP:

Clinton/Carson: 37/52
Clinton/Fiorina: 39/47
Clinton/Rubio: 41/45
Clinton/Trump: 43/44
Clinton/Cruz: 43/43
Clinton/Huckabee: 43/44
Clinton/Kasich: 41/39
Clinton/Bush: 41/42
Biden/Bush: 44/40
Biden/Trump: 46/44
Biden/Carson: 38/47
Sanders/Bush: 42/40
Sanders/Carson: 34/48
Sanders/Trump: 44/44
Clinton/Bush/Trump: 38/26/27

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/IowaPollRemaindersSeptember2015.pdf

Going badly for Democrats in Iowa, on the whole, where they at best tread water politically. It's still early, but a shift of Iowa from D to R (like West Virginia in 2000) could portend big trouble.  Who knows, though? The memory of the stench the of e-mail scandal will remain even if the scandal is resolved  for some time.

As elsewhere, Donald Trump seems to be on the fade. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Old (June) poll from Kentucky from PPP, but it does have Fiorina and Trump.

Clinton 45
Trump 42

Fiorina 45
Clinton 40

Rubio 46
Clinton 41

Walker 46
Clinton 41

Cruz 48
Clinton 42

Bush 48
Clinton 40

Carson 49
Clinton 40

Huckabee 49
Clinton 39

Paul 50
Clinton 40

Walker 42
Sanders 29

Walker 41
Chafee 23

Walker 40
O'Malley 22

Walker 42
Webb 22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/trump-on-the-rise-but-could-give-clinton-landslide.html

Others will not be changed.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Kingpoleon]

The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.

Florida only swings +3 GOP.

If nationwide trends followed, Hillary Clinton would beat the Donald by one point.

#Inevitable

[pbrower2a]

Shifting emphasis from what has been a long-shot bid for the Presidency to an effort to get re-elected to his current Senate seat indicates a practical abandonment of a bid for the Presidency. I thus no longer consider Rand Paul  a viable candidate for President.
 

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/255184-paul-takes-break-to-raise-funds-for-senate-campaign


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

NC, PPP:

Carson 51
Clinton 41

Rubio 50
Clinton 40

Huckabee 48
Clinton 41

Fiorina 48
Clinton 41

Bush 46
Clinton 41

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Kasich 44
Clinton 40

Cruz 46
Clinton 43

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 45
Trump 45

Fiorina 45
Biden 44

Carson 47
Biden 44

Bush 45
Sanders 39

Carson 48
Sanders 35

Fiorina 46
Sanders 37

Trump 46
Sanders 43

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/trump-steady-in-nc-biden-polls-well-.html

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School:


Clinton - 50%
Bush - 38%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio - 40%

Clinton- 50%
Trump - 36%

Sanders - 49%
Bush - 39%

Sanders - 49%
Rubio - 36%

Sanders - 53%
Trump - 34%

Sanders is faring slightly better than Clinton in Wisconsin.

...in case anyone is curious, approval of Governor Scott Walker is down to 39% with 59% disapproval.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Clarus, Louisiana

Clinton (D)- 45%
Jindal (R) - 42%

Bush - 56%
Clinton - 38%

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 39%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[Bigby]

How does Jindal lose in his own state?!

[Skye]

How does Jindal lose in his own state?!

By being an unpopular governor?

[pbrower2a]

How does Jindal lose in his own state?!

By being an unpopular governor?

See also "Scott Walker".

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, three of the biggest states in electoral votes not to be taken for granted:


Florida

Bush 44%
Clinton 43%

Clinton 45%
Carson 43%

Clinton 44%
Fiorina 42%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 46%
Trump 41%

...........

Ohio

Bush 43%
Clinton 41%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 43%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 43%
Trump 42%

..........

Pennsylvania

Bush 46%
Clinton 40%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 45%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Hillary Clinton is not doing well yet on Quinnipiac, and it is hard to believe that she would do better in Florida than in Pennsylvania.

I do not yet show Biden against anyone, but he seems to be doing better than Hillary Clinton. He loses to Carson in Ohio and Pennsylvania but beats him in Florida; he beats everyone else in all three states.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

[JonathanSwift]

Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Sure.

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Sure.

Not that anyone would be surprised with this result from late September (Siena, New York):

Biden 59%
Bush 30%

Biden 55%
Carson 35%

Biden 60%
Trump 33%

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/hillary-clinton-viewed-unfavorably-by-majority-of-nyers-for-first-time-ever

PPP, Iowa:

Biden/Bush: 44/40
Biden/Trump: 46/44
Biden/Carson: 38/47

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/IowaPollRemaindersSeptember2015.pdf

North Carolina, PPP:

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 45
Trump 45

Fiorina 45
Biden 44

Carson 47
Biden 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/trump-steady-in-nc-biden-polls-well-.html

Six states to work with -- even if only five of them could be interesting in the 2016 Presidential election.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Florida


Biden 46%
Bush 42%

Biden 45%
Carson 42%

Biden 49%
Fiorina 38%

Biden 46%
Rubio 43%

Biden 52%
Trump 38%



Ohio


Biden 46%
Bush 37%

Carson 46%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 42%

Biden 46%
Rubio 41%

Biden 49%
Trump 38%



Pennsylvania

Biden 45%
Bush 42%

Carson 47%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 43%

Biden 45%
Rubio 43%

Biden 50%
Trump 40%

[pbrower2a]

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Mike Huckabee(R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

What do I see? Joe Biden is doing about as well as Hillary Clinton did before the break of the e-mail scandal except (for now) against Ben Carson.

[JonathanSwift]

Polite suggestion: With Carson having positioned himself as the leading evangelical candidate, and with Huckabee having fallen to eighth nationally in the RCP average, I think it would be safe to drop the former Arkansas Governor at this point. If you want to continue doing six maps, then Cruz (who has more than double Huckabee's support nationally and in Iowa, and ten times his support in New Hampshire) makes far more sense.

[pbrower2a]

Polite suggestion: With Carson having positioned himself as the leading evangelical candidate, and with Huckabee having fallen to eighth nationally in the RCP average, I think it would be safe to drop the former Arkansas Governor at this point. If you want to continue doing six maps, then Cruz (who has more than double Huckabee's support nationally and in Iowa, and ten times his support in New Hampshire) makes far more sense.

Reasonable.  I have been slow to drop one potential nominee for another,  Huckabee has not yet suspended his campaign or stated that he would drop out. He is one of those 'lurking' candidates who can 'run' without starting an expensive campaign.

I consider Huckabee a campaign  drop-out if he takes a job with the news media.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Christopher Newport University

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2012%202015%20report-final.pdf

Hillary:

Clinton 47
Trump 40

Carson 49
Clinton 43

Fiorina 47
Clinton 43

Bush 46
Clinton 43

Rubio 45
Clinton 45

Clinton 49
Cruz 41

Christie 47
Clinton 42

At this point I would project Hillary Clinton to lose much like Kerry in 2004 except against Donald Trump. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Christopher Newport University, Virginia

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2012%202015%20report-final.pdf



Biden:

Biden 54
Trump 37

Biden 48
Carson 44

Biden 48
Fiorina 42

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 50
Bush 40

Biden 53
Cruz 36

Biden 48
Christie 41

Rubio isn't mentioned here.

At this point, the Vice-President seems to be winning almost all swing states.  

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

I have made the transition from Huckabee to Cruz for the match-ups involving the Vice President.

[MT Treasurer]

PPP is going to release their PA poll tomorrow. Any last guesses?

My guess:

Clinton/Carson: 42/47
Clinton/Trump: 47/42
Clinton/Bush: 43/45
Clinton/Rubio: 42/45
Clinton/Fiorina: 42/45

Biden/Carson: 43/43
Biden/Bush: 44/41
Biden/Trump: 48/42
Biden/Fiorina: 45/43

Sanders/Bush: 41/43
Sanders/Carson: 40/46
Sanders/Trump: 44/41

[Skye]

PPP is going to release their PA poll tomorrow. Any last guesses?

My guess:

Clinton/Carson: 42/47
Clinton/Trump: 47/42
Clinton/Bush: 43/45
Clinton/Rubio: 42/45
Clinton/Fiorina: 42/45

Biden/Carson: 43/43
Biden/Bush: 44/41
Biden/Trump: 48/42
Biden/Fiorina: 45/43

Sanders/Bush: 41/43
Sanders/Carson: 40/46
Sanders/Trump: 44/41

Probably like today's VA poll. Hillary and Sanders relatively weak while Biden polls well.

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut, the Q

Clinton gets 44 percent to Carson's 42 percent. She leads Fiorina 45 - 40 percent and tops Trump 47 - 40 percent.

Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, 56 - 29 percent. Jeb Bush gets a negative 33 - 51 percent, among the worst scores. Favorability ratings for candidates are:

    Clinton: Negative 42 - 51 percent;
    Trump: Negative 37 - 56 percent;
    Carson: 39 - 26 percent;
    Sanders: 39 - 25 percent;
    Fiorina: 33 - 25 percent.

---

From October 7 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,735 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 464 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 610 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Rather weak for Hillary Clinton.

Idaho, Dan Jones... Limited selection of data, but anyone who thinks that Idaho will be anything other than super-solid R  may need a trip to the lunatic ward. No material on Biden or on any Republican who has any experience as an elected public official (Bush, Castro, Huckabee, Kasich, or Rubio.

Fiorina (R): 59%
Clinton (D): 25%

Trump (R): 51%
Clinton (D): 30%

Jones polled 586 Idahoans from Sept. 22-30; margin of error plus or minus 4.05 percent.

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/636-poll-trump-and-sanders-lead-2016-field-in-idaho

(I here save space for PPP on Pennsylvania).

PPP, Pennsylvania

General election match ups for President in Pennsylvania are a mixed bag. Hillary Clinton trails behind Ben Carson (47/43), Chris Christie (45/41), Marco Rubio (45/42), Donald Trump (45/43), and Carly Fiorina (43/42) in the state. But she has leads over John Kasich (41/39), Jeb Bush (45/40), Ted Cruz (46/40), Rick Santorum (47/39) and Mike Huckabee (47/38). Republicans leading half of the match ups is a pretty good sign for them in a state where they haven't won the general election in almost 30 years.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut, the Q:

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Vice President Biden runs best against top Republican contenders in general election matchups in Connecticut:

    51 - 39 percent over Carson;
    53 - 36 percent over Fiorina:
    55 - 37 percent over Trump.

Sanders gets 44 percent to Carson's 41 percent. He leads Fiorina 44 - 39 percent and beats Trump 49 - 40 percent.

Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, 56 - 29 percent.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Jeb not mentioned in any match-up.

(I here save space for PPP on Pennsylvania).

PPP, Pennsylvania

Joe Biden leads all the Republican candidates we tested against him in Pennsylvania and on average does about 6 points better than Clinton in the comparable general election match ups. He leads Carson 46/44, Trump 45/43, Rubio 45/41, and Fiorina 46/40. Of course the standard caveat that life as a non candidate is usually a lot easier than life as a candidate applies once again to these numbers.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html#more

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more