Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #75 on: October 21, 2015, 01:49:24 PM »
« edited: October 21, 2015, 02:51:35 PM by pbrower2a »

New Hamphire, PPP


Clinton - 45%
Bush - 41%

Clinton - 48%
Carson - 42%

Biden - 48%
Carson - 39%

Sanders - 47%
Carson - 39%

Clinton - 45%
Christie - 44%

Clinton - 50%
Cruz - 37%

Clinton - 46%
Fiorina - 42%

Clinton - 51%
Huckabee - 35%

Clinton- 44%
Kasich - 44%

Clinton - 48%
Rubio - 42%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 42%

It looks as if the server 'scandal' and the Benghazi investigation have faded -- unless they have blown up on Republicans.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102115.pdf

Wisconsin, Wisconsin Public Radio:

4
OF THOSE WHO SAID THEY WILL DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY VOTE IN THE PRIMARY ONLY

10.
Hillary Clinton 50%  Donald Trump 39%


11.

Hillary Clinton  49% Jeb Bush 39%

12. Hillary Clinton 49% Ben Carson 45%


Impressive, but not usable because it is for primary voters. Consider it illustrative if nothing else. Wisconsin looks like an impending disaster for the Republican Party.

I show only the Clinton-Carson matchup here as a placeholder.

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/2015%20Fall%20WI%20Survey%20Release.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #76 on: October 23, 2015, 12:13:27 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2015, 10:43:41 AM by pbrower2a »

PPP, New Hampshire. I will probably close this line after PPP gives results from North Carolina.

Biden - 48%
Carson - 39%


Biden - 47%
Rubio - 40%


Biden - 51%
Trump - 40%



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)





Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)




Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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Ljube
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« Reply #77 on: October 23, 2015, 12:20:30 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2015, 12:23:05 AM by Ljube »

Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.
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« Reply #78 on: October 23, 2015, 10:09:52 AM »

Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #79 on: October 23, 2015, 10:58:09 AM »

Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore

A promise -- if PPP doesn't show Biden match-ups I will stop. In view of the effective termination of a campaign before it really started, I will stop after I get to color in matches of Biden against Cruz and Rubio in North Carolina. We can call this a 'historical still' within a movie. We may have a prediction of an election that never happened -- let us say George Voinovich vs. Al Gore in 2000.  (Good for an alternative timeline!)

All in all, I see Joe Biden as a default in the event that something went terribly wrong with the testimony of Hillary Clinton on the server 'scandal' and the murder of an American ambassador by terrorist outlaws in Benghazi. If anything, I can't now see many people voting for Joe Biden but not Hillary Clinton in November 2016. We may have seen in these polls involving Joe Biden how Hillary Clinton would do without all the attention tot he 'server' scandal and 'Benghazi'.

The opportunity for Republicans to tear down the Hillary Clinton campaign has vanished.  I thought that the Biden match-ups are close to what one would get with Hillary Clinton without the electoral baggage of the server 'scandal' and Benghazi. The controversy has imploded to the detriment of the GOP.

I predict that electoral maps that show Hillary Clinton against any imaginable Republican are going to get redder in Atlas coloring. Tiny New Hampshire already shows this.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #80 on: October 23, 2015, 08:36:46 PM »

It's Zogby in association with Bowling Green State University. Zogby has usually been suspect for methodology... but the college seems to have done the poll. Match-ups with Rubio are conspicuously lacking. No Biden, either.

Ohio -- BGSU, Zogby

Clinton (D): 46%
Trump (R): 35%

Sanders (D): 42%
Trump (R): 34%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 35%

Sanders (D): 41%
Carson (R): 33%

Clinton (D): 47%
Bush (R): 31%

Sanders (D): 43%
Bush (R): 30%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 30%

Sanders (D): 42%
Fiorina (R): 29%

http://www.bgsu.edu/content/dam/BGSU/news/2015/10/BGSUPollFindings_Day1.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #81 on: October 23, 2015, 11:15:21 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2015, 11:09:55 AM by pbrower2a »

Ohio: Zogby, Bowling Green State University

^Actually, there are Biden-GOP matchups, I just didn't post them because he dropped out of the race this week.

Trump (R): 33%
Biden (D): 45%

Carson (R): 33%
Biden (D): 42%

Bush (R): 27%
Biden (D): 45%

Fiorina (R): 27%
Biden (D): 43%



Thank you.

Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore

...Hey, I don't renege on my promises. I add one more data point and change one for a critical swing state. I think this a worthy part of the line before I put it to sleep.  It's Ohio -- one of the most relevant states.

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)





Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)




Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #82 on: October 27, 2015, 02:44:19 PM »

North Carolina, PPP

Clinton - 46%
Bush - 43%

Carson - 49%
Clinton - 43%

Cruz - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Fiorina - 45%
Clinton - 43%

Huckabee - 48%
Clinton - 44%

Clinton - 44%
Kasich - 42%

Rubio - 48%
Clinton - 42%

Trump - 48%
Clinton- 42%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #83 on: October 27, 2015, 09:05:44 PM »

PPP had nothing on Joe Biden in North Carolina.

The last binary match-ups you saw involving Joe Biden are the last ones that you are going to see unless something weird happens. Those may say more about how Hillary Clinton will do after people recognize that the server 'scandal' is a non-issue and that the death of Christopher Stevens was something that she could not stop.

I see a marked improvement for her from North Carolina alone, one that suggests that the state will be very close in 2016. We will likely see such states as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Virginia go much more Atlas Red as the next polls come out. Those states (and New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) get polled often.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #84 on: October 29, 2015, 05:30:34 PM »

Something amazing -- Jeb Bush seems to be collapsing as a candidate. I would have never expected this. Is he on the brink of 'suspending' his campaign? I am contemplating dropping him in view of some of his recent, manifest failures. He is just not up to the campaign for the Presidency. 

...PPP usually has announced by now what states it will be polling  in the next week; who knows? We may be getting a poll involving an unlikely state. Kansas? Vermont? Minnesota? Idaho?

It's easy for those who have our focus on the Presidency that there will be some gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Louisiana.  Maybe that's it.

I saw no results from Q this week.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #85 on: October 29, 2015, 10:06:02 PM »

PPP has already announced that it will poll Iowa this weekend. I wish we could get a CO poll soon... this state has really been underpolled this election cycle. (NC probably gets polled most often, yawn)

Thank you.

Who knows? Maybe we will get general election polls from Colorado and Virginia next week from Q... they would seem to be next on the rotation. Maybe Iowa as well.

Iowa has been near the national average in most recent elections, typically about D+2. It was the tipping-point state in 2008. It typically votes in tandem with Wisconsin, which has gone wildly Democratic this year while Democrats struggle in Iowa. Even in 2004, the two states were decided by razor-thin margins.

 
Iowa should show four things:

1.  Whether Hillary Clinton has successfully fended off the Republican inquiries on the server 'scandal' to the satisfaction of Iowa voters

2. How Ted Cruz fares after approaching front-runner status

3. Whether Jeb Bush has any viability

4. Whether Iowa and Wisconsin are going in different directions in partisan affiliation.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #86 on: October 29, 2015, 10:12:07 PM »

North Carolina, PPP
Cruz - 46%  Clinton - 45%
New Hamphire, PPP
Clinton - 50%  Cruz - 37%
Virginia, Christopher Newport University
Clinton 49  Cruz 41
Kentucky, PPP (poll from June 2015)
Cruz 48  Clinton 42
Iowa, PPP:
Clinton/Cruz: 43/43
South Carolina, PPP:
Cruz 48%  Clinton 39%
Florida, PPP:
Clinton 45%  Cruz 43%

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #87 on: October 29, 2015, 10:42:54 PM »

A little more backtracking:

Missouri, PPP
Cruz 50% Clinton 38%
Illinois, PPP
Clinton 51%  Cruz 35%
Pennsylvania, PPP
Clinton 46 Ted Cruz 40
Michigan, PPP (no subsequent junk polls)
Clinton 49 Cruz 39
Arizona, PPP:
Cruz 44, Clinton 43

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #88 on: October 29, 2015, 10:52:05 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2015, 03:39:14 PM by pbrower2a »

So far I don't see Ted Cruz doing better than any other Republican against Hillary Clinton. Again -- Iowa (which PPP does next week) should be interesting next week.  (Likewise Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... maybe even Arizona). This map suggests that he might do slightly better than Romney 2012 -- if you think that he can flip either Iowa or Colorado. He certainly won't flip Florida.

The razor-thin margin by which Ted Cruz would win Arizona suggests that he would lose Colorado while putting Arizona at risk of a Clinton victory. He's the 'wrong' sort of Hispanic to win the votes of Mexican-Americans.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2015, 12:26:16 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2015, 12:47:06 PM by pbrower2a »

Survey USA, WXIA-TV (NBC-11 Atlanta)

Trump 46, Clinton 37

No other binary match-ups.

In other news, Jeb Bush is way down among Republican primary voters.


Florida, Survey USA

Trump 47
Clinton 43

Carson 47
Clinton 44

Clinton 46
Bush 44

Clinton 46
Rubio 45

Clinton 48
Fiorina 42



http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/11/3/florida_decides_poll_2016_election.html#3  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #90 on: November 03, 2015, 04:58:42 PM »

Q will have a national poll tomorrow at 6AM EST.

There will be odd-year elections for some important offices in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi -- elections that might say something about 2016.

A hint: Mississippi will likely divide close to the racial split in 2016 as (I predict) in 2015. Anything that shows Democrats stronger in Kentucky or Louisiana in statewide elections will bode ill for Republicans nationally.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2015, 01:32:00 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2015, 02:22:47 PM by pbrower2a »

)I am moving polls for Cruz into the main collection.

It's too bad that I don't have a poll to decide whom to drop. I am convinced that Jeb Bush is showing himself less than ready for a Presidential campaign -- but Mike Huckabee is beginning to look irrelevant.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #92 on: November 04, 2015, 01:42:17 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2015, 02:20:34 PM by pbrower2a »

Iowa, PPP:

Clinton 45 -- Bush 40
Carson 47 -- Clinton 44
Carson 46 -- Cruz 44  
Clinton 44 -- Fiorina 43
Clinton 46 -- Huckabee 44
Clinton 43 -- Kasich 36
Clinton 43 -- Rubio 45
Clinton 44 -- Trump 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110415.pdf

Improvements across the board. Iowa is now a reasonably-good prospect for a Clinton victory and not a State drifting rapidly R.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #93 on: November 04, 2015, 01:55:03 PM »

Aside from Rubio, "establishment" Republicans are doing badly in Iowa. They might not hand Hillary Clinton a win on the level of Iowa 2008 for Obama...  but they are not going to swing the state.

The effect of Hillary Clinton parrying the GOP investigations has begun to show.

In contrast to earlier polls of Iowa, this is an outlier. But this follows a change in the overall environment. The pattern that I see in Iowa is what I recently saw in North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Hillary Clinton is gaining, and anyone confident about any Republican Presidential nominee picking off Iowa in 2016 is a fool. Iowa may not be as D as Wisconsin, with which it usually travels -- but Iowa does not have Governor Scott Walker.

I look forward to seeing a credible poll of Pennsylvania.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #94 on: November 04, 2015, 02:26:58 PM »

I'm getting excited about the prospect of someone polling Colorado or Pennsylvania.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #95 on: November 05, 2015, 11:47:09 PM »

Elon University, North Carolina

Clinton - 47%
Bush - 43%

Carson - 48%
Clinton - 44%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 48%
Fiorina - 42%

Rubio - 46%
Clinton - 45%

http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf

Hard to believe. I'm sure that we will see another PPPpoll of North Carolina within a month, anyway.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #96 on: November 09, 2015, 04:12:51 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2015, 07:10:50 AM by pbrower2a »

Florida

Hillary Clinton (D): 46%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

Ohio

Donald Trump (R): 45%
Hillary Clinton (D): 43%

Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton (D): 50%
Donald Trump (R): 38%

Colorado

Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/r/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/09/Editorial-Opinion/Graphics/Copy%20of%20Dcorps_WV_BG_11.9.15_final.pdf

That's all there is here. The pollster may have a D bias, but except for Colorado (where we have no really recent polls) this set of binary polls largely confirms the common wisdom. It also shows that the more that people get to know Donald Trump, the less they like him.

...PPP has polled South Carolina this weekend. I expect to see no real change in South Carolina.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf

Hard to believe. I'm sure that we will see another PPPpoll of North Carolina within a month, anyway.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #97 on: November 09, 2015, 04:22:18 PM »

Pbrower, Ohio is colored incorrectly on your Clinton vs. Trump map. The poll you cite has Trump leading there.
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Skye
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« Reply #98 on: November 09, 2015, 05:04:47 PM »

Didn't you say you wouldn't post polls that had a partisan agenda or something like that?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #99 on: November 10, 2015, 07:25:19 AM »

Didn't you say you wouldn't post polls that had a partisan agenda or something like that?

OK if --

1. Existing polls are obsolete or stale (judgement call)

2. The partisan poll is all that is available, and still makes sense. I accepted a partisan (R) poll for Idaho because I expect nobody to poll Idaho again soon.

3. It says things that don't show a ridiculous lead for someone ahead, or that someone that everyone knows is behind is much closer than anyone could expect.

I haven't seen a poll of Colorado for a long time. It also says that the Ohio race for the US Senate seat is a literal tossup (Strickland had recently had bare leads against Portman). What it says of the Strickland-Portman contest is enough to cause me to change my senate projection for Ohio from "Edge D" to "pure tossup". It also suggests that Trump is doing better in Ohio than do other recent polls.

The bigger problem with this poll is that it has match-ups involving only Trump.

There will be more polls.

Yes, this one is connected to a pro-Democratic group as is shown in its language (How Democrats Can Beat Republicans in Key States). That looks as if it is written after the polls are taken. Otherwise it looks good.
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