Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.

[pbrower2a]

So Trump wins PA, NV, and FL, but loses VA?

Almost all statewide polls are now at least three weeks old. There is a college poll in Florida that shows Hillary Clinton winning Florida by astonishing margins, but I don't believe it. Florida is not D+5.

We are going to see more polling. This coming week we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that Democrats really need (like New Hampshire) to win to win the Presidency.  I expect to see more polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... and even more of Iowa and New Hampshire -- because pollsters do those states often.

The most recent polls have been national polls, and they are consistent with Hillary Clinton having at the least a bare win of the Presidency. The only way in which she is losing so many swing states yet tied nationally is that the partisan identities in American life are beginning to resemble those of the 1970s, which I just don't see happening.   

[pbrower2a]

California -- Field Poll. Not that anyone expects the Golden State to be gold for Democratic nominees for President and 55 electoral votes out of reach for any Republican. These are not binary match-ups, but it is safe to say that neither Rubio, Cruz, nor Trump has a chance in California.   


Image ratings of the leading candidates (among the overall California registered voter population):

52-31 Sanders (+21)
50-44 Hillary (+6)
30-46 Rubio (-16)
29-51 Cruz (-22)
22-73 Trump (-51)

The findings come from a Field Poll completed December 16, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers


Nothing on Kasich, Jeb Bush, Carson, or Fiorina.

...nothing to add to the map. Basically consistent with the Cook D+9 rating for California in  national elections.

[pbrower2a]

It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

lol

New Hampshire is a legitimate swing-state in a 50-50 Presidential election. It was D+1 in 2012,  D+1 in 2008,  D+2 in 2004, and R+1 in 2000. Do you want to believe that New Hampshire has gone D+5 or something like that?

[pbrower2a]

I have two polls to average. This post will not be complete until I have so done this.

I will also average the Marist poll of New Hampshire with the PPP poll from New Hampshire. '

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%

Donald Trump ................................................. 42%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (- -)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-3)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41% (-5)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%

Ben Carson..................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-4)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Jeb Bush......................................................... 43%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40% (-3)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf


The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

In Iowa:

Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent), but Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Cruz tops Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent), but Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

And up Rubio is up by five points over Clinton (47 percent to 42 percent), while he's tied with Sanders (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders tops him by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

Cruz beats Clinton by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders leads him by another 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

And Rubio bests Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent), while Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

The primary reason why Sanders tests better in these general-election matchups is due to his stronger performance with independent voters.

...

Quote
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters [+/- 1.8], 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

PPP, New Hampshire:

s Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

[pbrower2a]

Marist and PPP cannot both be right, but here is what I have. If you don't like it, then wait for the next poll.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

I'm going to add polls involving Bernie Sanders and leading Republicans, beginning with the first two polls by PPP and Marist in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I'm skeptical of these numbers as I usually am. How many people from each party were polled in each sample?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Trump will lose, which, I think he will, 272-266 or 303 electors, he probably wont win, but should a wave develop, these map will become more realistic.

[pbrower2a]

vs Sanders (PPP,NH)

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Trump 34

PPP, IA


Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%



...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

In Iowa:

Sanders is ahead of Trump  by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Sanders beats Cruz by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

Sanders is  tied with Rubio (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Sanders tops Trump by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

 Sanders leads Cruz by 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

Sanders leads Rubio by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

LOL Virginia

What's so funny about Virginia?

Many of the polls are terribly obsolete. We are going to see more polls, and if you really believe that the GOP steamroller is just gearing up to crush liberalism once and for all in America we just might see that.

Of course, maybe the most recent poll of Virginia  says more than you might want to believe.

[pbrower2a]

Backtracking because I expect to see few polls from Montana:

 
Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa

[pbrower2a]

With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa

What we often forget: the polls involving Pennsylvania are from when the Hillary Clinton campaign was reeling under accusations that she had bungled the Benghazi horror. 

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Clinton 42, Rubio 47
Clinton 43, Bush 45
Clinton 43, Trump 45
Clinton 43, Cruz 46
Clinton 44, Carson 47

All within the margin of error, even if all such polls give an edge to the Republican. Any Republican needs an edge of 6% in North Carolina to win the national popular vote. These polls in North Carolina suggest that nothing has really changed since 2012.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Sanders 38, Cruz 43
Sanders 39, Rubio 43
Sanders 40, Carson 44
Sanders 41, Bush 42
Sanders 43, Trump 44

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/WMUR/UNH poll of New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 13-18:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Clinton 48%
Trump 39%



Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%


Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%


Clinton 45%
Christie 42%


Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/WMUR/UNH poll of New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 13-18:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Alaska -- Alaska Dispatch, Ivan Moore Research



http://www.alaskadispatch.com/sites/default/files/polling_vs_clinton.jpg

Nothing on Sanders.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Should Michael Bloomberg formally enter the Presidential race, I may need to start a new map and close this thread after the week's binary match-ups which could be interesting... but quickly irrelevant. 

With Michael Bloomberg in the race I would expect Ross Perot redux at this stage. He apparently helps Trump against both Clinton and Sanders but hurts Cruz and Rubio.

http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/ne...bloomberg-win/

Clinton 36%
Trump 37%
Bloomberg 12%

Clinton 38%
Cruz 34%
Bloomberg 11%

Clinton 38%
Rubio 33%
Bloomberg 10%


http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/po...ders-vs-trump/

Sanders 35%
Trump 34%
Bloomberg 12%

Sanders 36%
Cruz 28%
Bloomberg 11%

Sanders 36%
Rubio 29%
Bloomberg 10%

The maps are going to get messy!   

[Flake]

If I were you, I wouldn't change the maps until after he officially announces, could just be trying to get some more attention.

[pbrower2a]

If I were you, I wouldn't change the maps until after he officially announces, could just be trying to get some more attention.

Such is my intention. All I have so far is a national race which I can at most use as a control for making sense of state polls. We will see binary polls for a short time should Michael Bloomberg choose to run.   

[Vern]

Are you going to include the new MN polls?

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School.


    Clinton 45 percent, Rubio 44 percent.
    (November: Clinton 44 percent, Rubio 45 percent.)
    Clinton 45 percent, Cruz 44 percent.
    (Not asked in November. August 2015: Clinton 50 percent, Cruz 38 percent.)
    Clinton 47 percent, Trump 38 percent.
    (November: Clinton 48 percent, Trump 38 percent.)

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette University Law School.

Sanders 49 percent, Rubio 38 percent.
(November: Sanders 46 percent, Rubio 42 percent.)
Sanders 50 percent, Cruz 38 percent.
(Not asked in November.)
Sanders 52 percent, Trump 34 percent.
(November: Sanders 52 percent, Trump 35 percent.)

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Are you going to include the new MN polls?

Of course not, since it shows Republicans ahead.

Mason-Dixon polling was terribly unreliable in both 2008 and 2012.

Before you discuss the new poll of Michigan -- Mitchell is another junk-car poll.