Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #175 on: January 29, 2016, 03:26:53 AM »

If indeed this is a 272-266, not a 303 or 332 election, MN & MI are battleground states and will vote to right of WI, like 51/49, instead by 6, like they usually do. The same with Pa, which is showing, a closer than expected race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #176 on: February 03, 2016, 05:57:10 PM »

Rand Paul and Rick Santorum drop out of the Presidential race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #177 on: February 04, 2016, 12:53:19 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2016, 07:10:01 PM by pbrower2a »

VIRGINIA

Clinton leads Trump; tied with Cruz, Rubio; but Virginians "feel the Bern" (at least for now)

Potential Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump (52%-35%) and is statistically tied with Republican hopefuls Ted Cruz (45%-41%) and Marco Rubio (46%-43%), according to The Roanoke College Poll. Democratic contender Bernie Sanders leads all three Republican front-runners, including Trump (55%-33%), Cruz (49%-37%) and Rubio (48%-38%).

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 524 likely voters in Virginia between January 18 and January 26 and has a margin of error of +4.3 percent.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_feb_2016_presidential_politics

No Republican nominee has won the Presidency since 1924 without Virginia.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #178 on: February 06, 2016, 11:40:18 PM »

New Hampshire: UNH, U-Massachusetts at Lowell

 conducted from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016 Here are the outdated polls released yesterday first.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton — 44%
Trump — 40%

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton — 44%
Cruz — 41%

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio — 44%
Clinton — 41%



And here are the matchups from the poll conducted 2/3/2016-2/5/2016.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-6%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230852.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton — 46% (+2)
Trump — 39% (-1)

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton — 46% (+2)
Cruz — 39% (-2)

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio — 43% (-1)
Clinton — 42% (+1)



The newer polls are more valid. An event (the Iowa caucuses) so dictates.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #179 on: February 06, 2016, 11:44:38 PM »
« Edited: February 08, 2016, 05:09:21 PM by pbrower2a »

New York, Siena.

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf


Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush



Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson



Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)






Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #180 on: February 08, 2016, 05:03:40 PM »

Siena University, New York:

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36


https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Carson and Fiorina are not taken seriously. Has either dropped out?



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush



Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)



Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #181 on: February 08, 2016, 05:55:26 PM »

I want to dump someone for Kasich in binary polls. Whom? I see a surge in polling for him in Republican primaries. Maybe this weekend, after the New Hampshire primaries induce someone to abandon a quixotic quest of questionable quality.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #182 on: February 09, 2016, 10:13:08 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 10:15:46 PM by pbrower2a »


Binary match-ups involving Bernie Sanders. The near-tie between Cruz and Bush compels me to keep Jeb in view, though.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz



(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #183 on: February 09, 2016, 10:22:39 PM »


Done!

Will someone please poll Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



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pbrower2a
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« Reply #184 on: February 10, 2016, 03:49:03 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2016, 01:19:41 PM by pbrower2a »

Next PPP polls will be from North Carolina and South Carolina.

Other predictable polls (Super Tuesday):

The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses.

-- Wikipedia.

Quinnipiac frequently polls Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin together in one week -- and Florida. Ohio, and Pennsylvania in another.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #185 on: February 16, 2016, 08:32:19 AM »


Adding the Roanoke University and Siena University polls for Bernie Sanders.

Sanders 55 -- Trump 32

Sanders 48 -- Rubio 38

Sanders 49 -- Cruz 39

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Jan2016.Topline_Exit%20poll.pdf

Siena University, New York:

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz



(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #186 on: February 16, 2016, 08:36:18 AM »
« Edited: February 16, 2016, 09:20:58 AM by pbrower2a »

In view of New York State, Cruz and Rubio likely have no special appeal to non-Cuban Hispanics including Puerto Ricans. They are the 'wrong' sorts of Hispanics to appeal to Puerto Ricans in the US mainland.  

But did one really expect Joe Lieberman to have much success appealing to German-Americans in 2000 even if German-Americans have some cultural similarities to Ashkenazi Jews?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #187 on: February 17, 2016, 10:25:51 PM »

Survey USA, North Carolina.

If there should be a poll by PPP, then that one supplants this one.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%
* Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%
* Trump 45%, Clinton 43%



They have Cruz getting 16% of the black vote vs Hillary. Remember SurveyUSA tends to exaggerate black GOP support.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

I can't imagine Ted Cruz getting 16% of any sample of black voters.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush





Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #188 on: February 17, 2016, 10:31:20 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2016, 05:53:12 PM by pbrower2a »

North Carolina, SurveyUSA. It looks good for Sanders, but there might be a poll by PPP, practically the favored pollster for North Carolina. A PPP poll supplants this one.  I'm averaging.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%
* Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%
* Sanders 44%, Trump 44%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

Marco Rubio (R): 45%
Bernie Sanders (D): 41%

Ted Cruz (R): 43%
Bernie Sanders (D): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Donald Trump (R): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 43%
Jeb! Bush (D): 42%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-lead-by-smaller-margins-in-nc.html

Could the rules of 2000-2012 be changing this year? Any Democrat who is even close in North Carolina is almost certainly winning nationwide.

Averaging here.

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz



(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.









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pbrower2a
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« Reply #189 on: February 22, 2016, 04:28:57 AM »

Recognizing the new reality in the 2016 election. A hint: much old data becomes meaningless.



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #190 on: February 22, 2016, 04:31:49 AM »

Same new reality with Sanders and viable R candidates.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz



(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










[/quote]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #191 on: February 24, 2016, 08:29:28 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 03:06:31 PM by pbrower2a »

Ohio is now slightly R in contrast to the rest of the US unless Governor Kasich is the nominee (slight but not yet insignificant chance), in which a Favorite Son wins by an overwhelming majority.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Cruz 46%
Clinton 43%

Kasich 54%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 47%
Clinton 42%

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%

Very little data here -- and it may be an exaggeration. West Virginia will not vote for Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump.

TRUMP (R): 61%
Clinton (D): 24%

Generic R: 63%
Clinton (D): 21%

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20160225/poll-wv-prefers-gop-for-president-democrat-for-governor




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #192 on: February 24, 2016, 08:34:20 AM »

Ohio, Quinnipiac. Much data added for Sanders. The Favorite Son effect is strong with Kasich in Ohio. Again, Ohio looks slightly R this time in contrast to the US as a whole.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325


Sanders 44%
Cruz 42%

Kasich 54%
Sanders 35%

Rubio 44%
Sanders 42%

Sanders 44%
Trump 44%

Cruz 37%
Sanders 37%
Bloomberg 11%

Trump 38%
Sanders 35%
Bloomberg 13%



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.









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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #193 on: February 24, 2016, 10:42:24 AM »

Clinton has lost grond in Appalachian, she will win CO, NV, NH & Pa
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #194 on: February 24, 2016, 02:30:35 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2016, 09:49:49 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!
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« Reply #195 on: February 24, 2016, 03:24:16 PM »

Florida Q poll out tmrw(probably primary and then general Friday)

Penn Q poll out next week
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #196 on: February 25, 2016, 01:24:14 PM »

FL and Ohio are tilting R. Its gonna be a close electiom as CO, NV, Pa, Iowa & Pa decision
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #197 on: February 25, 2016, 03:13:01 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2016, 01:29:36 PM by pbrower2a »

Wisconsin -- Marquette University General Election Poll

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%

Clinton 43%
Cruz 43%

Clinton 44%
Rubio 43%

PPP, Florida

Donald Trump (R): 46%
Hillary Clinton (D): 44%



Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Marco Rubio (R): 43%


Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Kasich would have been interesting.




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #198 on: February 25, 2016, 03:20:43 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2016, 12:59:00 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!

Wisconsin, Marquette University General Election Poll. Welcome additions to this map in a potentially-important state. Wisconsin voters seem to like their Democratic nominees for President to be on the progressive side.



Sanders 54%
Trump 34%

Sanders 53%
Cruz 35%

Sanders 53%
Rubio 35%


... Kasich might do better here; he would be interesting.

Florida, PPP:


Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Marco Rubio (R): 42%

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Bernie Sanders (D): 46%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #199 on: February 27, 2016, 07:26:54 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2016, 07:44:20 AM by pbrower2a »

Georgia, Survey USA

50-41 Trump/Clinton
49-41 Trump/Sanders

49-42 Cruz/Clinton
48-42 Cruz/Sanders

50-43 Rubio/Clinton
49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA


47% Trump
44% Clinton

47% Trump
44% Sanders

...

50% Cruz
42% Clinton

50% Cruz
41% Sanders

...

51% Rubio
41% Clinton

50% Rubio
40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich




Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






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