Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
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Author Topic: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.  (Read 71407 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #250 on: April 08, 2016, 09:39:47 PM »
« edited: April 08, 2016, 09:58:39 PM by pbrower2a »

Wisconsin

Clinton (D) 49%
Trump (R) 41%
Johnson (L) 10%

http://www.oann.com/pollwisconsin/

Mississippi, Mason-Dixon.


Trump 39%
Clinton 43%
Third Party 13%

https://www.scribd.com/doc/307072107/MS-Pres-Mason-Dixon-March-2016


Arizona:

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Florida -- Not usable because Bloomberg has stated that he will not run:

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Before this, Donald Trump is frequently the "independent" alternative. No further backtracking unless you can show that I( missed something relevant.





Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)



Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Democrat 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)



Trump 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)


Independent or third-Party nominee, any level (saturation 30%)

All else white

This line becomes irrelevant if Cruz or Kasich wins the Republican nomination.

 
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Nathan Towne
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« Reply #251 on: April 12, 2016, 01:56:22 PM »

Head to head matchups polls.

Connecticut: Clinton 48, Trump 40 Clinton +8
Connecticut: Cruz vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 52, Cruz 31 Clinton +21
Connecticut: Kasich vs. Clinton Emerson Kasich 49, Clinton 38 Kasich +11
Connecticut: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 49, Trump 40 Sanders +9
Connecticut: Cruz vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Cruz 30 Sanders +25
Connecticut: Kasich vs. Sanders Emerson Kasich 48, Sanders 40 Kasich +8


New York: Clinton 61, Trump 32 Clinton +29
New York: Cruz vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 61, Cruz 31 Clinton +30
New York: Kasich vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 53, Kasich 38 Clinton +15
New York: Trump vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 64, Trump 31 Sanders +33
New York: Cruz vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 65, Cruz 28 Sanders +37
New York: Kasich vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 57, Kasich 35 Sanders +22


Massachusetts: Trump vs. Clinton Western NE University Clinton 62, Trump 26 Clinton +36
Massachusetts: Cruz vs. Clinton Western NE University Clinton 63, Cruz 30 Clinton +33
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Sanders Western NE University Sanders 70, Trump 23 Sanders +47
Massachusetts: Cruz vs. Sanders Western NE University Sanders 71, Cruz 24 Sanders +47


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #252 on: April 12, 2016, 03:23:03 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2016, 12:16:59 AM by pbrower2a »

Connecticut:

John Kasich (R): 49%
Hillary Clinton (D): 38%

Hillary Clinton (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 40%

Hillary Clinton (D): 52%
Ted Cruz (R): 31%


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Clinton (D) 63%
Trump (R) 27%

Clinton (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 38%

Clinton (D) 60%
Cruz (R) 31%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf

Massachusetts:

Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)


http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

New York (State), PPP:

Hillary Clinton (D): 55%
Donald Trump (R): 35%

Hillary Clinton (D): 56%
Ted Cruz (R): 30%

Hillary Clinton (D): 50%
John Kasich (R): 36%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




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pbrower2a
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« Reply #253 on: April 12, 2016, 03:26:55 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2016, 12:24:49 AM by pbrower2a »

Connecticut:

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf




Massachusetts:

Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

Would Massachusetts try to secede if Trump or Cruz got elected over Sanders?


New York (state), PPP:

 
Bernie Sanders (D): 58%
Donald Trump (R): 33%

Bernie Sanders (D): 59%
Ted Cruz (R): 27%

Bernie Sanders (D): 54%
John Kasich (R): 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #254 on: April 13, 2016, 04:53:23 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2016, 12:17:16 PM by pbrower2a »

Georgia: Lake Research Partners


http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/LRPmemo.GeorgiaDemocraticParty.F.041116.pdf

Clinton 50
Trump 37

Clinton 47
Cruz 40

I don't know if I fully trust this one. Unless the Republican nominee is a complete turkey, no way do I expect Georgia to go for the Democratic nominee for President. On the other hand, Georgia leans about as R as Missouri, where a recent poll shows Clinton leading Trump. Georgia is more D (and probably more elastic) than Mississippi and Texas, where Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in another poll. (Not that I trust any poll of Texas!)  Georgia is not much more R than North Carolina, and the most recent poll of North Carolina shows Clinton  leading both Trump and Cruz. But not this much!

But this said, Georgia was Barack Obama's second-closest loss in both 2008 and 2012. I'd like to see another poll corroborate or contradict this. If Hillary Clinton is winning Georgia, then she is on the way to winning at least 390 electoral votes.  Dislike this poll? then just wait for another. The most recent poll of Georgia is stale.

Nothing on Kasich or Sanders.

New York, Emerson University.


Hillary Clinton (D): 55% vs. Donald Trump (R): 36% (D+19%)
Bernie Sanders (D): 51% vs. Donald Trump (R): 37% (D+14%)
Hillary Clinton (D): 59%  vs. Ted Cruz (R): 28% (D+31%)
Bernie Sanders (D): 58% vs. Ted Cruz (R): 27% (D+31%)
Hillary Clinton (D): 49% vs.  John Kasich (R): 39%  (D+10%)
 
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_9be49212aa1f45efb06ed31243e26ad1.pdf

New polling from the battleground state of Utah....

Trump 38%
Clinton 38%
.
Cruz 67%
Clinton 26%
.
Kasich 69%
Clinton 23%



http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





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pbrower2a
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« Reply #255 on: April 18, 2016, 10:35:38 AM »

Don't be surprised if this is the last poll that you see of Massachusetts for a very long time. No change is necessary for any map.


Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)
Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

This is consistent with a Democratic landslide, at least outside the Mountain and Deep South for Hillary Clinton, as it is close to the level for Obama in 2008. With Sanders.... not quite what LBJ got in Massachusetts (76%) in 1964.

Massachusetts is a swing state only in a Democratic disaster as with Eisenhower or Reagan.

Massachusetts, going back:

Year, Massachusetts, USA

2012   60 51
2008   62 53
2004   62 48
2000   58 49
1996   61 48*
1992   47 43*
1988   54 45
1984   48 41   (the Republican won MA!)
1980   42 43* (the Republican won MA!)
1976   56 50
1972   54 37  (the only state that Nixon lost!)
1968   54 43*
1964   76 61
1960   60 50
1956   40 42
1952   45 44


*significant third-party nominee   
italic -- Democratic nominee from Massachusetts

...Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan are the only Republican nominees for President who won Massachusetts in the last 90 years; they both won it twice.

   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #256 on: April 18, 2016, 12:15:19 PM »
« Edited: April 21, 2016, 08:53:33 PM by pbrower2a »

New polling from the battleground state of Utah (Dan Jones)....

Sanders 49%
Trump 34%
.
Cruz 63%
Sanders 32%
.
Kasich 64%
Sanders 30%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Maryland:



Sanders 62, Cruz 24 (D+38)
Sanders 60, Trump 29 (D+31)
Sanders 52, Kasich 32 (D+20)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:


Trump 38
Sanders 51

Cruz 39
Sanders 49

http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite

WMUR-TV, ABC-9 southern New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire


Sanders: 58
Trump: 31

Sanders: 61
Cruz: 30

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_spring_preselect042116.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #257 on: April 19, 2016, 06:03:50 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2016, 05:14:00 PM by pbrower2a »

Maryland:

Clinton 58, Cruz 24 (D+34)
Clinton 61, Trump 28 (D+33)
Clinton 54, Kasich 33 (D+21)


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:

Trump 39
Clinton 45

Clinton 41
Cruz 44


http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

North Carolina was on the fringe of competitiveness in an election close to being close in 2012.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 34%

Clinton (D) 45%
Cruz (R) 44%

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite



http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #258 on: April 23, 2016, 08:27:31 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2016, 08:59:10 AM by pbrower2a »

WMUR-TV (ABC-9 southern New Hampshire), U-New Hampshire:

Clinton: 50
Trump: 31

Clinton: 48
Cruz: 34

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_spring_preselect042116.pdf

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Poll from early April that we missed. We get few polls from New Jersey, so we need to show this one.

Clinton 50%
Trump 36%

Clinton 50%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%

Sanders 55%
Trump 34%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








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pbrower2a
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« Reply #259 on: April 23, 2016, 08:32:25 AM »

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Poll from early April that we missed. We get few polls from New Jersey, so we need to show this oen.


Sanders 55%
Trump 34%



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #260 on: April 23, 2016, 08:40:13 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2016, 09:25:54 AM by pbrower2a »

Polls involving Sanders (who needs to win about 70% of all remaining delegates to win the Democratic Party's nomination for President, which is the only way that one wins in a binary race) and Kasich (at best a compromise choice between Cruz or Trump supporters after several balloting failures by both, which will probably not look as good in November 2016 as it does now) may be losing current relevance. But note that I say "current".  I shall have some more explanation after posting some maps here, so please do not discuss this post yet.  


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

This is a rough estimate of how I see a 2020 election involving a Republican President who wins in 2016 but has a failed Presidency. (Really, I'd concede Utah to the Republicans but allot Georgia and Missouri to the Democratic nominee). Anybody who believes that with the states filled in as they are that the Republican nominee has a chance of winning Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, or Vermont in 2020 even in a good year for Democrats has a better chance of making a successful a prediction of a crippling snowstorm in Honolulu on Election Day. The real blank spaces are for the Mountain and Deep South and for the Northern Plains, places now very conservative. These places have their limits to offense to sensibilities or to abject failure of a President.  

As is my discussion of any electoral theory, I usually offer the other face of the coin, so to speak. Please do not discuss this map yet.

Before I drop polls involving John Kasich, I need to discuss what the binary matchups between Kasich and Clinton really show. It may not be how the 2016 election goes.  This is Clinton vs. Kasich under the best possible situation for Kasich in which Kasich wins the nomination easily and is able to win the Presidency with a quiet campaign in which he says nothing controversial and she exposes characteristics that a big chunk of the electorate despises. Nobody has gotten the chance to win an election that way since the 1990s, and this year will be no exception. John Kasich will obviously win the Republican nomination, if at all, after a protracted and exhausting struggle that compels him to say things that will offend people who think Cruz and Trump unacceptable. In the mean time, Democrats have an effective get-out-the-vote drive in the autumn that swings the door shut on some states that look like swing states early but usually go Democratic (like Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and pick up some others that went to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

I doubt that Kasich wins the election if nominated. If he successfully appeals to Cruz and Trump voters in the primaries he gives Democratic-leaning independents good cause to vote for the Democratic nominee.

So what do  the current matchups of Kasich vs. Clinton really mean?

If the Democratic nominee in 2016 becomes a failure as President, then we might see an analogy to 1980 or a partisan inverse of 1932, when the failed President loses to a challenger who makes a largely-positive campaign with care to avoid saying troublesome things except what everyone knows about the troubled incumbent President.

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

A landslide in electoral votes like those of 1932 and 1980 is practically impossible because the incumbent President will still win California and New York, which together combine for 84 electoral votes, which is more than Hoover got with six states and 59 electoral votes, let alone the six states and DC that got Jimmy Carter 49 electoral votes. But let me guess what a 44-state landslide for a Republican looks like in 2000 if one concedes four other states and the District of Columbia. 

(OK, I'm really taking this theme to "Future Presidential Elections", so you can discuss it there, too, and probably more competently and with more relevance).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #261 on: April 23, 2016, 06:37:34 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2016, 07:39:45 PM by pbrower2a »

INDIANA, which rarely gets polled. WTHR-TV (NBC-13, Indianapolis), Howey Politics
Conducted April 18-21, MoE +/- 4.3%

Trump 47%
Clinton 39%

Cruz 53%
Clinton 36%

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/poll-indiana-trump-hillary-clinton-222316

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.









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pbrower2a
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« Reply #262 on: April 23, 2016, 07:40:14 PM »

^You colored IN blue on the Clinton vs. Kasich map, not on the Clinton vs. Trump map.

Thank you. Noted and corrected.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #263 on: April 24, 2016, 09:06:53 AM »



http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-look-set-to-build-on-lead-in-pennsylvania-primary-poll-shows-1461502801


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.









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« Reply #264 on: April 25, 2016, 03:49:48 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 03:01:09 PM by pbrower2a »

Arizona. Rocky Mountain Poll, which you can hold suspect as it projected Obama to win Arizona at one point in 2012.  

Basically, Donald Trump is the worst match by the GOP in Arizona since... Thomas E. Dewey, who lost to Truman almost 54-44. Dole actually got a higher percentage of the popular vote in Arizona in 1996 than did Dewey in 1948 -- having to compete with Ross Perot for votes.


Senator Bernie Sanders beats all of the GOP contenders by: 54% to 33%
over Trump, 48 % to 34% over Cruz and by 47% to 33% over Kasich.

Democrat Hillary Clinton also bests Trump by a narrower 42% to 35% but then loses in Arizona to Ted Cruz by 43% to 38% and trails John Kasich by 44% to 32%

http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf

North Carolina, PPP

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/north-carolina-senate-race-remains-close.html


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










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pbrower2a
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« Reply #265 on: April 25, 2016, 04:05:48 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 03:03:45 PM by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania: Marist, Wall Street Jounal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-look-set-to-build-on-lead-in-pennsylvania-primary-poll-shows-1461502801

Arizona, Rocky Mountain Poll. See above for Hillary Clinton.

North Carolina, PPP, Also see above on Hillary Clinton. 


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz




Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich




Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

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« Reply #266 on: April 27, 2016, 04:11:56 PM »

The polling that now counts.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

Here's my projection based upon 270 to Win:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mw6RE

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



Deep red -- out of contention, strong D
Medium red -- fringe of contention, weak D
Gray -- in contention
Light blue -- fringe of contention, weak R
Dark blue -- out of contention, strong R.

I have seen two polls showing Utah, arguably the most unlikely state for a Democratic win in most years (Utah seems to be a well-run state, which is an excellent situation for incumbents), TIED. I am relying on behavior in recent years to suggest that Kansas has a deeply-divided Republican Party and that that could be a disaster in the making... although I see no evidence of such yet in polling. Louisiana elected a Democratic Governor last year. I really trust no poll of Texas, and one in Mississippi was really close. Indiana is just too close to suggest that Donald Trump can win nationally. 

In any event I see Democrats having little chance of losing any of 257 electoral votes and Republicans having little chance of losing 147. (OK -- the Republican (Trump) has to win just about everything in blue and gray to become the next President.

Hillary Clinton can win, in order of increasing difficulty and likelihood (and I am trying to avoid overkill):

1. Colorado and either Iowa or Nevada -- barest win possible for Obama in 2012. These states are about PVI D+1 to D+2.
2. Virginia -- possible tipping-point state. The state is just about PVI 0
3. Ohio -- the current bellwether state is just more than enough to win.  Kasich was going to win Ohio -- big. PVI R+2
4. Florida -- Obama's closest win in 2012, and demographics will not help Republicans. PVI R+3.
5. Arizona and Colorado -- if Hillary Clinton wins Arizona, then she is also winning Colorado, which has fewer Mormons and more Mexican-Americans. Trump has said much to offend Mexican-Americans and he is the worst cultural match for Mormons since at least Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.
6. Iowa, Nevada, and NE-02. Having Greater Omaha decide who becomes the next President of the United States is in fact possible. Also unlikely.

I can dismiss the following states from consideration:

North Carolina is enough, but if Hillary Clinton is winning North Carolina, then she is also winning Virginia, which is also enough.

Georgia is enough, too, but if Hillary Clinton is winning Georgia she is also winning North Carolina and Virginia.

Utah, should Trump lose it,  indicates that he has also lost Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada.

Missouri indicates not only that she has won Iowa; but also Ohio and Virginia; likely Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina; and  probably Georgia (surprisingly similar in political orientation). States in the Mountain and Deep South might not be so certain for Republicans as they were against Barack Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #267 on: April 27, 2016, 11:17:33 PM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 11:19:53 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP will be polling West Virginia this weekend.

Would someone please poll Iowa, Minnesota, and Virginia? It's been a while.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #268 on: April 27, 2016, 11:22:14 PM »

PPP will be polling West Virginia this weekend.

Would someone please poll Iowa, Minnesota, and Virginia? It's been a while.

Thanks for your contributions pb. I always love looking at your maps as they are updated.
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« Reply #269 on: April 28, 2016, 08:30:58 PM »


This looks good, except for the fact that this is not an ordinary year, it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada (and arguably Virginia and Colorado) are lean D certainly and SC is at least Lean R if not pure tossup.

If you apply demographics based on national polls, SC is about even.
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« Reply #270 on: April 28, 2016, 09:46:22 PM »

I don't see Utah for Hillary. Wink
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« Reply #271 on: April 28, 2016, 09:50:44 PM »

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Trumps problem in a nutshell. The Firewall is already locked down. Look at the ECs that are already writeoffs for him, PA, MI, WI, MN, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT and ME. That leaves, NV, VA, OH, IA, FL.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #272 on: April 28, 2016, 11:04:21 PM »


Two polls suggesting a virtual tie.

Donald Trump is doing much worse than other potential Republican nominees in Utah and much worse than Republicans in other statewide elections. That is a warning sign of a big difference.

So what does it matter if Donald Trump ends up winning Utah 53-47 instead of 70-30? Maybe not the piddling six electoral votes of Utah... but it also means that he is a horrible cultural match for LDS voters in other states -- like Arizona.  Gut the usual Mormon support for any Republican, and a state that has lots of Mormons might not lean so Republican. Donald Trump could bet a double-whammy in Arizona as the large Mexican-American population votes strongly against him.

The real problem for Donald Trump isn't Utah; it's Arizona. But if he loses Arizona he is also losing Nevada and Colorado as well -- and the Presidential election.

For another analogue, just consider another state that usually goes Republican: Indiana. If it goes 52-48 R, then what does that mean? Basically, the Republican has lost Ohio.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #273 on: April 29, 2016, 06:13:51 PM »


This looks good, except for the fact that this is not an ordinary year, it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada (and arguably Virginia and Colorado) are lean D certainly and SC is at least Lean R if not pure tossup.

If you apply demographics based on national polls, SC is about even.

I'm deliberately charitable to Donald Trump so far on estimating what the battleground states are.

 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #274 on: May 01, 2016, 02:25:31 AM »
« Edited: May 01, 2016, 09:44:27 PM by pbrower2a »

Minnesota.

Clinton 48
Trump 35

Clinton 49
Cruz 40

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Another involving Indiana, this time by Marist:

Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D): 48%-41% (R+7)
Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D): 50%-43% (R+7)
Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D): 56%-39% (R+17)

Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)




Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich





Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.
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