1840: William H. Harrison dies a month or two before the election

[bagelman]

John Tyler is now the nominee for the Whig party, barring a last minute change. Who would be his running mate? If the Whigs choose someone other than Tyler, who would it be? Is Van Buren going to win re-election?

[sparkey]

If the Whigs had managed a last-minute change, then the 2 other candidates favored by Whigs in 1840 were Henry Clay and Winfield Scott, not John Tyler, who was just a ticket balancer. Clay had a resurgence in 1844, sure, but was relatively unpopular in 1840. At the nomination convention, Harrison had won on the 5th ballot, drawing 13 Clay supporters vs. 41 Scott supporters, indicating that most of Harrison's support would transfer to Scott and Scott would have been the nominee. Scott had a similar reputation as Harrison and the election probably would have been similar with him on the ballot instead of Harrison.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With Harrison's death coming so close to the election, I think it unlikely that the Whigs will be able to formally nominate a replacement. The result will likely be an 1836-esque scenario, with each state's Whig electors giving their support to Regional heroes. As the most prominent Whig of the day, Clay would probably be considered the de facto nominee, but Winfield Scott and possibly Tyler and Daniel Webster could potentially receive support as well.

I don't see this effecting Van Buren's prospects much, though he might gain New York and could possibly loose Virginia to Scott or Tyler. Ultimately, I think Clay ends up winning, though likely looses support to competing Whig candidates in areas of the country where he was less popular.

Henry Clay of Kentucky (WHIG)
Martin Van Buren of New York (DEM)
Winfield Scott of Virginia (WHIG)
Daniel Webster of Massachusetts (WHIG)
John Tyler of Virginia (WHIG)

[Kingpoleon]

149: Henry Clay(W-KY)/Daniel Webster(W-MA) - 54.9%
145: 45.1%

[HankW501]

Considering the recession that started during Van Buren's first term, I think he would have lost in 1840 no matter which Whig he ran against.

I think the last-minute Whig ticket would have been Clay/Tyler.