Will West Virginia ever vote to the right of Idaho?

[madelka]

If yes, when do you think it could happen?

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes, and 2016 is entirely possible.

[ElectionsGuy]

The last time it happened was 1936. I don't think its likely, but it could happen if Democrats go full green, anti-fossil fuels.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, and I also think it could happen in 2016. Idaho at least has some parts of the state that are trending Democratic (most notably Boise). WV is probably set to be the next Oklahoma, even though I think that the Eastern Panhandle will trend Democratic over the next 20 years (but not by much and obviously not enough to make the state competitive, so no #VAredux).

[Figueira]

Since the question says "ever," the answer will always be yes. However, I do think that it will probably happen soon.

[Clark Kent]

If the 2008-2012 trends continue (unlikely, but bear with me), then both West Virginia and Idaho will trend Republican, but West Virginia wil have a much greater trend and will be mroe Republican than Idaho, falling behind only Utah and Wyoming. Both will have surpassed Oklahoma.

[The Free North]

Its hard to say never, but given the growing Mormon population in Idaho which now makes up around 25% of the population, it may be quite some time especially with Hillary, not Obama on the ticket in 2016. 

[TDAS04]

Maybe someday, but I doubt it will in 2016 if Hillary is the nominee.

[eric82oslo]

Idaho is a booming, somewhat rapidly urbanizing state, so I would honestly be pretty shocked if West Virginia wasn't to become more Republican than Idaho in a few more elections. Also, the influx of latino citizens is pretty constant (and growing) in Idaho, while almost non-existant in West Virgina.

[Del Tachi]

By the apogee of the current political realignment, which should occur sometime in the 2030s, I would not be surprised to see West Virginia regularly voting over 70% GOP in national elections.  I think it and Oklahoma will become the most GOP-voting states over the next few cycles. 

[libertpaulian]

It already has.  Two counties in Idaho went for Obama, while all counties in West Virginia went for Romney (a historic first for the state, as Democrats have won at least one county in the state).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it will; & have a brand new R gov in Cole.

[Figueira]

It already has.  Two counties in Idaho went for Obama, while all counties in West Virginia went for Romney (a historic first for the state, as Democrats have won at least one county in the state).

Every county in New Hampshire voted for Obama in 2008, but that doesn't make it more Democratic than New York.

[WVdemocrat]

God, I sure hope not.

Yes, and I also think it could happen in 2016. Idaho at least has some parts of the state that are trending Democratic (most notably Boise). WV is probably set to be the next Oklahoma, even though I think that the Eastern Panhandle will trend Democratic over the next 20 years (but not by much and obviously not enough to make the state competitive, so no #VAredux).

Why do you say? (I live in the EP)

[ElectionsGuy]

God, I sure hope not.

Yes, and I also think it could happen in 2016. Idaho at least has some parts of the state that are trending Democratic (most notably Boise). WV is probably set to be the next Oklahoma, even though I think that the Eastern Panhandle will trend Democratic over the next 20 years (but not by much and obviously not enough to make the state competitive, so no #VAredux).

Why do you say? (I live in the EP)

Probably Washingtonization

[MT Treasurer]

God, I sure hope not.

Yes, and I also think it could happen in 2016. Idaho at least has some parts of the state that are trending Democratic (most notably Boise). WV is probably set to be the next Oklahoma, even though I think that the Eastern Panhandle will trend Democratic over the next 20 years (but not by much and obviously not enough to make the state competitive, so no #VAredux).

Why do you say? (I live in the EP)

Probably Washingtonization

Basically, but more moderate Republicans like Shelley Moore Capito will continue to do very well there.

[DS0816]

If yes, when do you think it could happen?

Would there be any ideological shift in the most-populous areas of Idaho for this potential?

It would be fun to see a winning Democrat carry Idaho. But, that hasn't happened since 1964 and, before that, 1948. The state used to routinely carry for presidential winners during the first half of the 20th century. (As did a hell of a lot of states.)

The nature of the general-election campaigning, not just from Democrats but also Republicans, would have to change in order to possibly move states nowadays considered remote.

[Potus]

God, I sure hope not.

Yes, and I also think it could happen in 2016. Idaho at least has some parts of the state that are trending Democratic (most notably Boise). WV is probably set to be the next Oklahoma, even though I think that the Eastern Panhandle will trend Democratic over the next 20 years (but not by much and obviously not enough to make the state competitive, so no #VAredux).

Why do you say? (I live in the EP)

Probably Washingtonization

Basically, but more moderate Republicans like Shelley Moore Capito will continue to do very well there.

Worth mentioning that the people who settle in West Virginia rather than Maryland or Virginia are avoiding taxes. The region is pretty well a Republican area. It's going to stay that.

[RINO Tom]

In the period of 2000-2016 (HEAVILY influenced by Bush's Presidency), it has been true that "cosmopolitan areas" have trended Democratic and rural areas have trended Republican.  There's no reason to think that will continue forever.

[DS0816]

In the period of 2000-2016 (HEAVILY influenced by Bush's Presidency), it has been true that "cosmopolitan areas" have trended Democratic and rural areas have trended Republican.  There's no reason to think that will continue forever.

So long as there is a common association of one of the two major political parties being "conservative" and the other being "liberal" … there is no reason to share your enthusiasm, RINO Tom.

[Rockefeller GOP]

In the period of 2000-2016 (HEAVILY influenced by Bush's Presidency), it has been true that "cosmopolitan areas" have trended Democratic and rural areas have trended Republican.  There's no reason to think that will continue forever.

So long as there is a common association of one of the two major political parties being "conservative" and the other being "liberal" … there is no reason to share your enthusiasm, RINO Tom.

I know you prefer a kindergarten teacher's version of political history where everything is simple and story book styled, but metro areas HAVE NOT ALWAYS BEEN LIBERAL.

[/]

No, Obama will have become dictator of the People's Republic of America and called off all elections before WV has the opportunity to vote again.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I would note that much of Idaho's growth has come from Republican voters migrating from other states. Plus, the conservatism that you tend to find in Idaho is more deeply rooted and all-encompassing than that in West Virginia, which has a proud (if mostly dead) tradition of labor activism (though the "War on Coal"  does the Democrats no favors in WV).

To sum up, Idaho has been voting for right-wing Republicans for a much longer period than West Virginia has.

[DINGO Joe]

10% of West Virginia is in the I-81/Washington Metro fringe and is relatively healthy, employed, has nothing to do with coal and has a decent population age distribution.  While it won't go supernova growth like next door Loudoun Co, it should be able to maintain modest growth.

5% of West Virginia is Morgantown which has the state's major university.  It serves as a half-way house for the best and brightest to flee the state.

85% of the state has no future prospects, a demographic and public healthy disaster.  It's old, crippled, drug addled--a death trap, a suicide rap.  A few marauding bands of NG drillers and, decreasingly,  coal miners will drain the last economically viable supplies before moving on.  

Doesn't matter how they vote, they're doomed, best get out while you're young.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Nice Born to Run reference.