Democrats now have prospective Congressional candidates in 1/3 of Rep Districts

[136or142]

According to the information on politics1.com, Democrats now have prospective candidates in 82 of the 247 Republican held districts.  Politics1 did not announce this, but I counted it myself.

In 26 of the 82 districts there is more than one prospective candidate.  

In the 56 districts where there is just one declared candidate, nine hold or have held elected office, not including two who held office in states different from the ones they are now seeking office in.  Of the remaining 47 candidates, 21 have run for some office previously, including one who ran for President in 2012.

Of the 56 candidates, 43 are men, most of the rest are women.

Three former U.S Reps are so far running again, but two of them have primary challengers. Only Pete Gallego in Texas 23 is so far running unopposed in the Primary.

I will try to add to this thread when I have more time, and as new things develop.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting statistics. Though quality of candidates, probably. means even more then their quantity... Of course, 2016 MUST be substantially better for Democrats, then 2014, but - how much better? I think we will get picture by next summer.

[136or142]

Interesting statistics. Though quality of candidates, probably. means even more then their quantity... Of course, 2016 MUST be substantially better for Democrats, then 2014, but - how much better? I think we will get picture by next summer.

If you are referring to the what the 2016 election environment will look like (which is what I'm pretty sure you're referring to) I agree with that timeline.  Though, of course, things can still change between the summer and the fall.

If you are referring to what the quality of Democratic candidates will be like, we should know by the end of this year, as nearly all the serious contenders will have announced by then, with the exception of districts where Republican incumbents retire at the last minute.  Of course, we'll know before then in Illinois, as the filing deadline for the 2016 elections is in December of 2015.

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely. And not only in Illinois, AFAIK - there are 3 or 4 other states with March primary. But i expect some "last moment" retirements in March - May of next year too...

[Figueira]

Is this a normal number? How many did they have in late August 2013?

[136or142]

Is this a normal number? How many did they have in late August 2013?

I didn't follow it in that election, so I don't know. But, as I said, the more important thing is where are the Democrats at by the end of the year, and how many of the competitive and potentially competitive districts do they have serious candidates in. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Of the 56 candidates, 43 are men, most of the rest are women.

"Most of the rest"?

[politicus]

Of the 56 candidates, 43 are men, most of the rest are women.

"Most of the rest"?

Hermaphrodites and centaurs make up the balance.

[136or142]

Of the 56 candidates, 43 are men, most of the rest are women.

"Most of the rest"?

Sorry, it was just a meaningless stupid joke.  I literally did not mean anything by it.

[Republican Michigander]

That doesn't mean a lot unless they are good candidates. I am seeing some effort and some "B" team candidates out in these parts, although I don't see them making major traction unless the incumbents screw up badly.

That said, never underestimate the ability of someone to be the next Bob Ethridge or  Don Sherwood.

[136or142]

That doesn't mean a lot unless they are good candidates. I am seeing some effort and some "B" team candidates out in these parts, although I don't see them making major traction unless the incumbents screw up badly.

That said, never underestimate the ability of someone to be the next Bob Ethridge or  Don Sherwood.

With the exception of the perennial candidates, the number of candidates running is indicative of the early interest a party is generating in the upcoming election, along with fundraising.

In regards to the quality of the candidates, we don't seem to disagree on this, but former long time Canadian political news person Don Newman had a quote that I believe he originated that I think should be much better known that went something like "When the incumbent is in trouble, people often see qualities in their opponent that weren't noticed before."

[/]

Which one ran for president in 2012?

[136or142]

Which one ran for president in 2012?

Damien Stone who is running in Florida 12.

[136or142]

According to my count of the candidates listed on Ron Gunzburger's politics1.com website, the Democrats have reached another milestone: they now have at least one candidates for nomination in 100 of the 247 Republican held districts. (Which is also approx 40%)

In competitive districts (districts the Democratic candidate  or incumbent in 2014 lost by 15% or less. Normally it would be better to only call a district lost by 10% or less as competitive, but since 2014 was a wave Republican year, I'm going with 15%)  the Democrats have candidates for nomination in 23 of 31 districts.  

There were actually just 28 districts that the Democrats lost by 15% or less in 2014, but I've obviously added in Florida 10 and Florida 13 as well as a thus far generic addition of a district in Virginia which is also going to be redistricted for the 2016 election.

The Democrats also have 12 candidates for nomination in the 28 potentially competitive districts that they lost by 15-20% in 2014.  

There were actually just 26 of these districts, but I've added in New York 21 where the Republican Elise Stefanik won by slightly over 20%, but she only received 55% of the vote as a Green Party candidate got somewhere over 10% of the vote.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, the Green Party person is running again, but I don't know that that person can achieve the relative success he did in 2014.  Also, the Democrats in 2014 didn't run a candidate in Pennsylvania 15 held by Charlie Dent.  But, it's a normally fairly competitive district and the Democrats have possibly a decent candidate this time around in Archie Follweiler a former Councilor for the Burough of Kurztown.

Additionally, the Democrats have candidates for nomination in seven of the nine open districts that the retiring Republican incumbent won by more than 20% of the vote in 2014.  To be sure, of these, districts like Texas 19 almost certainly won't be competitive, but at this point it's simplest to just count them all as potentially competitive. Note: these districts do not include Speaker Boehner's district which will be filled by a special election before the 2016 election.

So, that adds up to candidates for nomination for the Democrats in 43 of the 68 competitive, potentially competitive and open districts.

In these 43 districts, there is more than one candidate for the nomination in 22 of them, and there is at least one woman running for the nomination in also 22 of these 43 districts.

The Democrats also have candidates for nomination in 57 of the 179 'non competitive' districts.  12 of these districts have more than one candidate for nomination.  In those 12 districts, at least one woman is running for the nomination in five.  Of the 45 districts where there is thus far just one candidate for the nomination, 10 are women.

In these 45 districts, 7 of the candidates running hold or have held elected office.  these include three present or former state representatives, one county commissioner, two mayors and one school trustee.

In the 100 districts as a whole, Ron Gunzburger lists candidates in 19 districts as having served in the military.  It's more than likely though that Gunzburger's information is not complete and the number is higher.

So, that's the summary so far.  Anybody want additional information?

[136or142]

These are the Republican open districts that they won by more than 20% of the vote in 2014. 

1.Florida 6
2.Indiana 3
3.Indiana 9.  This district was held by Democrat Baron Hill until he lost in the Republican wave year of 2010.  The likeliest Democratic candidate is Shelli Yoder, the 1993 Miss America runner up and present Monroe County Commissioner who was the Democratic nominee in 2012 and received nearly 45% of the vote.
4.Kentucky 1
5.Michigan 10
6.Nevada 3
7.New York 19
8.Pennsylvania 8
9.Texas 19

Which ones are likely to be competitive?

[Holmes]

Interesting statistics. Though quality of candidates, probably. means even more then their quantity... Of course, 2016 MUST be substantially better for Democrats, then 2014, but - how much better? I think we will get picture by next summer.

We'll have a better idea by September. Numbers in the summer might be skewed by the conventions.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting statistics. Though quality of candidates, probably. means even more then their quantity... Of course, 2016 MUST be substantially better for Democrats, then 2014, but - how much better? I think we will get picture by next summer.

We'll have a better idea by September. Numbers in the summer might be skewed by the conventions.

Agree