Why did FDR lose support in 1944?
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  Why did FDR lose support in 1944?
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Sir Mohamed
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« on: August 28, 2015, 04:59:10 AM »

Why did FDR lose support in 1944 (compared to 1940)?

Because of these facts, I would suspect the opposite to happen:

- first, and most important, WW2 was in its closing stage as of November 1944. The president led the nation through the war and now to ultimate victory.

- the economy was finally in a good shape

- Wendell Willkie had been a stronger campaigner than Tom Dewey.

- the unwritten law not to serve more than two terms was already broken.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2015, 05:43:35 AM »

Why did FDR lose support in 1944 (compared to 1940)?

Because of these facts, I would suspect the opposite to happen:

- first, and most important, WW2 was in its closing stage as of November 1944. The president led the nation through the war and now to ultimate victory.

- the economy was finally in a good shape

- Wendell Willkie had been a stronger campaigner than Tom Dewey.

- the unwritten law not to serve more than two terms was already broken.

Possible ideas:
1.People accepted the idea of the two term limit being broken during a war, but not as the Peace became clear.

2.FDR's declining health was quite apparent by 1944 and was also the reason why Henry Wallace was dropped as Vice President, though I doubt the public knew that was the (main) reason.

3.I believe there were already increasing incidences of corruption in the Democratic Party, though I don't believe that became a major issue until Truman became President.

4.A general feeling of 'time for change.'

5.Wendel Wilkie may have run a better campaign than Dewey, but Dewey was, as a New York Governor, likely a more acceptable alternative as President than a guy who had never held elected office, and who, iirc, had been a supporter of FDR only a few years earlier.
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2015, 09:06:49 PM »
« Edited: August 28, 2015, 09:23:30 PM by Hydera »

Going to extend to 1940 a little.

The dust bowl region, ND,SD, KS, NB and Iowa and Colorado voted for the GOP as a protest vote in 1940 and 1944, because they said the farm crisis didn't end yet.

A more controversial reason was that the tons of German americans voted for the GOP in 1940 because of the GOP's more isolationist stance in 1940.

Although the second was a dead issue once Pearl Harbor happened. Those protest votes probably was a kind of vote that led to a realignment when groups change their habits.  Realignment happens when theres a profound shift in demographic voting like switching of support OR major rise in turnout. Just as the 1968 election votes for Wallace, made once staunch democrat voters into hardcore republican voters.

however its evident that most of the decline in FDR's support was due to German americans switching their votes.

If you look at the county level maps there was a switch of lean democrat counties in the midwest+mountain states where there was a lot of ethnic german americans, to lean republican in 1940 and then it hardened in 1944.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2015, 09:15:20 PM »

Also 1936 was the kind of landslide that is pretty rare for a presidential election, so it's not surprising that FDR lost some support in 1940 and 1944.  Plus, some voter fatigue would be expected for any four-term President, even for FDR.

And yeah, Dewey was a better candidate for the Republicans than Wilkie. He (rather infamously) came pretty close to beating Truman in 1948.

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bobloblaw
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2015, 09:31:02 PM »

Going to extend to 1940 a little.

The dust bowl region, ND,SD, KS, NB and Iowa and Colorado voted for the GOP as a protest vote in 1940 and 1944, because they said the farm crisis didn't end yet.

A more controversial reason was that the tons of German americans voted for the GOP in 1940 because of the GOP's more isolationist stance in 1940.

Although the second was a dead issue once Pearl Harbor happened. Those protest votes probably was a kind of vote that led to a realignment when groups change their habits.  Realignment happens when theres a profound shift in demographic voting like switching of support OR major rise in turnout. Just as the 1968 election votes for Wallace, made once staunch democrat voters into hardcore republican voters.

however its evident that most of the decline in FDR's support was due to German americans switching their votes.

If you look at the county level maps there was a switch of lean democrat counties in the midwest+mountain states where there was a lot of ethnic german americans, to lean republican in 1940 and then it hardened in 1944.

Most likely it was soldiers overseas who may not have been able to cast ballots
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2015, 11:57:36 AM »

Also 1936 was the kind of landslide that is pretty rare for a presidential election, so it's not surprising that FDR lost some support in 1940 and 1944.  Plus, some voter fatigue would be expected for any four-term President, even for FDR.

And yeah, Dewey was a better candidate for the Republicans than Wilkie. He (rather infamously) came pretty close to beating Truman in 1948.



I'm sure had he lived, Willkie would have won in 1948 over Truman.
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