Will we see a Chinese Spring in the next years?

[buritobr]

Many people think that the stability of the Chinese regime lies on the very high GDP growth rates.
Growth has been already declining. After a yearly 10% average in the 2000s, the rate was near 7% last year, and probably, the growth may decline even more in the next years, after the crash.

Do you think events like the one at the Tianamen in 1989 can happen again?

[Cory]

Honestly I hope not. It's one of those things that I would understand and support in theory but in practice it would be devastating for the global economy so I hope it doesn't happen.

Can you imagine the instability resulting from a serious Chinese protest rebellion? China is making progress and it would be silly for their people to fight the regime now while the going is good.

Also I hope nobody actually thinks that a Democratic China would any less corrupt then today's China, it would probably be worse.

There really is something to be said for authoritarian forms of government. Sometime they really the best of a bad lot.

[politicus]

Honestly I hope not. It's one of those things that I would understand and support in theory but in practice it would be devastating for the global economy so I hope it doesn't happen.

Can you imagine the instability resulting from a serious Chinese protest rebellion? China is making progress and it would be silly for their people to fight the regime now while the going is good.

Also I hope nobody actually thinks that a Democratic China would any less corrupt then today's China, it would probably be worse.

There really is something to be said for authoritarian forms of government. Sometime they really the best of a bad lot.

The going is not good for all people. Massive pollution, suppression of minority cultures, floating workers with no rights, abuse of power, forced relocations etc. Progress is not just about average income.

Democracy puts a check on corruption and allows people a way to get rid of corrupt officials.

What is scary is PRC becoming the most powerful nation in the world without becoming a democracy - and being the sugar daddy and protector of every tinpot tyrant and one party state in the world. That is scary stuff.

[TDAS04]

Anytime soon?  Doubtful.

[Cory]

The going is not good for all people. Massive pollution, suppression of minority cultures, floating workers with no rights, abuse of power, forced relocations etc. Progress is not just about average income.

Yes and don't get me wrong, I think China should liberalize it's economy and social system over time but to have a sudden uprising removing the government I think would only make these problems worse.

Who specifically would govern the country after this theoretical "Egypt-style" revolution in China?

Democracy puts a check on corruption and allows people a way to get rid of corrupt officials.

Yes, in countries that have a 50+ year long tradition of modern liberal democracy. I mean look at Russia in the 1990's. China needs time to grow it's middle class to initiate gradual change.

What is scary is PRC becoming the most powerful nation in the world without becoming a democracy - and being the sugar daddy and protector of every tinpot tyrant and one party state in the world. That is scary stuff.

It is unfortunate but I don't think anybody worth their salt ever thought that not being a Democracy precluded a country from being a major power.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, assuming that some kind of democratic demands from a more educated populace is (pardon my whiggishness) "inevitable" it would be better for the world economy's sake (and the Chinese elite's sake, for that matter) if their is a peaceful transition of power rather than say a violent protracted bloodbath that would come from reliving Tianaman.

As for who would govern, I imagine the various factions of Communist officials can split off from each other. Heck, maybe the KMT would return.

[MaxQue]

Honestly I hope not. It's one of those things that I would understand and support in theory but in practice it would be devastating for the global economy so I hope it doesn't happen.

Can you imagine the instability resulting from a serious Chinese protest rebellion? China is making progress and it would be silly for their people to fight the regime now while the going is good.

That's the problem. Progress is slowing. What when it will come to a stop?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Considering what we've seen of China in the past decades, I have a very hard time seeing it. Still, nothing is ever impossible.

[andrew_c]

It seems possible. The Communist Party has been trying to tighten controls on pretty much everything, which can be seen as a sign of desperation. Single party dictatorahips become more unstable over time, so few have lasted as long as the PRC. Things may seem to be fairly stable right now, but time could be running out for the Communists. Keep in mind that the Soviet Union lasted about 70 years. The PRC has already ruled China for 66 years.

[MaxQue]

As long there there is growth, the Communists will stay in power. But, no growth is eternal.