North Rhine-Westphalia state election (5/22)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Btw, I have some new poll numbers:


Forsa (5/11)
CDU 45%
SPD 34%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

CDU + FDP = 52%
SPD + Greens = 41%



Infratest-dimap (5/12)
CDU 43%
SPD 37%
Greens 8%
FDP 7%

CDU + FDP = 50%
SPD + Greens = 45%



FGW (5/13)
CDU 44%
SPD 35%
Greens 9%
FDP 7%

CDU + FDP = 51%
SPD + Greens = 44%



Infas (5/13)... never heard of that one before
CDU 43%
SPD 36%
Greens 7%
FDP 8%

CDU + FDP = 51%
SPD + Greens = 43%

[minionofmidas]

Yawn...no movement whatsoever...except that the FDP is lookign worryingly good...do you have a link to poll details or something? I'd like to know some no. of undecideds etc figures.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yawn...no movement whatsoever...except that the FDP is lookign worryingly good...do you have a link to poll details or something? I'd like to know some no. of undecideds etc figures.

No, sorry. I took the poll numbers from here: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

I only heard that the number of undecideds in the FGW poll was about 40%.

[CO-OWL]

Yawn...no movement whatsoever...except that the FDP is lookign worryingly good...do you have a link to poll details or something? I'd like to know some no. of undecideds etc figures.

That's all I found:
http://www.welt.de/data/2005/05/13/718095.html
FGW says only 60% have already decided to vote and for which party. (I don't think turnout will be much higher than that.)
Infas says 16% of the voters are undecided.

The SPD's last hope is the TV debate on Tuesday.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the TV debate worked wonders for the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein.

Unfortunately, people already know Steinbrück...not to mention that he's boring as ...

[minionofmidas]

2000 results by constituency:

[minionofmidas]

However, it seems they've changed constituency boundaries for this election.
http://home.arcor.de/urcom/Download/pdf/NRW05.pdf has restatements of results to new boundaries.
Here's a map: http://www.im.nrw.de/bue/doks/wahlen/karte_nrw.pdf

[Middle-aged Europe]

Even MORE maps :



2000 state elections (eighth election in a row won by the SPD):




2004 local elections (SPD gets its ass kicked by the CDU, this years´ state election could look similar in the end)

[minionofmidas]

Darker shade means over 50% of the vote.

[jimrtex]

2000 results by constituency:

What is the nature of the CDU seats in Essen and Cologne?

[minionofmidas]

I'm not familiar with Essen, although I suppose it's gonna be the same thing as in Cologne.

In Cologne, that's basically Lindenthal. It's the most bourgeois, toryish part of the city. That said, the CDU would likely not be winning it if it wasn't for the Greens splitting the vote. It's pretty close to the Uni, and I think the studentish/bohemian area of Sülz is in the district.

[minionofmidas]

After checking my own link...
the CDU district in Essen is abolished in the redistricting.
The CDU's lead over the SPD in Cologne II is larger than the Green lead over the FDP.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Old Europe,

I certainly hope that this month's map resembles the latter of the two you presented.  The election is less than 10 days away, right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The election is less than 10 days away, right?

Look at the title of this topic.   The election is on sunday.

[CO-OWL]

Good link: http://www.election.de/
Then click on "Nordrhein-Westfalen" (light yellow box on the left-hand side)

[Notre Dame rules!]

The election is less than 10 days away, right?

Look at the title of this topic.   The election is on sunday.

wasn't paying attention.  my bad!

[CO-OWL]

New poll numbers:

Infratest-dimap (5/15)
CDU 43%
SPD 37%
Greens 7.5%
FDP 7.5%

CDU + FDP = 50.5%
SPD + Greens = 44.5%


Forsa (5/19) (after TV debate)
CDU 43%
SPD 36%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

CDU + FDP = 50%
SPD + Greens = 43%


Looks great, but the only poll that matters is on Sunday!
If the NRW CDU does not win this time, they should join the Bavarian SPD in the "permanent opposition party club"...

[Notre Dame rules!]

Rock on CDU!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, the polls will close in a hour now. About the same time the first projection will be available.

Apparently, the turnout is actually higher than five years ago, which could mean that the race is closer than expected (higher turnout = more votes for the SPD). I would still place my bets on a CDU/FDP win, but it´s not as certain as it seemed several days ago. Well, we will see in about a hour...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nah, no big surprises...


ARD projection
CDU: 45.0% (87 seats)
SPD: 37.5% (72 seats)
FDP: 6.0% (11 seats)
Greens: 6.0% (11 seats)


ZDF projection
CDU: 45.0% (86 seats)
SPD: 37.5% (72 seats)
FDP: 6.5% (12 seats)
Greens: 6.0% (11 seats)


Losses for all parties except for the CDU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking News: SPD chairman Franz Müntefering just announced early elections for this fall.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Preliminary official results

CDU: 44.8% (89 seats)
SPD: 37.1% (74 seats)
FDP: 6.2% (12 seats)
Greens: 6.2% (12 seats)

[CO-OWL]

Official results NRW:

CDU: 44.8%    +6.8%  (89 seats - win 89 districts)
SPD: 37.1%    - 5.7%  (74 seats - win 39 districts)
FDP: 6.2%       -3.6%  (12 seats)
Greens: 6.2%  -0.9%  (12 seats - beat FDP by some 900 votes...)

Turnout: 63%  +6.3%


My district (Herford I):

CDU: 43.3%    +6.9%  (CDU gain)
SPD: 40.3%    - 6.3%  
FDP: 5.9%       -2.1%  
Greens: 5.1%  -0.6%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Did the Turkish immigrant issue play a signficant role in that election?

I suspect if will in the federal election.

[Beet]

So, Schroeder's finished. It looks as if Bush may gain another ally in Europe. After a painful few months, the left may be able to claim Italy as a consolation prize.