North Rhine-Westphalia state election (5/22)

[minionofmidas]

NRW is one of just a handful of states where you can't split your vote. Voters have only one vote which is used both to determine who won the direct election seat and for proportional distribution.
This somewhat hurts minor parties, of course. (It also used to be the law in Hessen until 1991, when the FDP saw to it being changed, and in Schleswig-Holstein until 2000 when the Greens saw to it being changed...see a pattern? )

Steinbrück is not very charismatic, and is very much a man of the SPD's technocratic Old Right, which is pretty strong in NRW. The state's SPD-Green coalition has never been running all that smoothly. Steinbrück's ascendance to the top job is something of an accident, really. After the 2000 state elections, the SPD more or less settled on Harald Schartau as then PM Wolfgang Clement's heir apparent. However, Schartau was not a member of the Landtag at the time (still isn't. will be in two weeks time, though) which according to the NRW constitution is a requirement for becoming PM. In 2002, Clement quit to join the national cabinet, and the state SPD had to pick somebody else.

[minionofmidas]

In fifties NRW used to be CDU stringhold IRRC (traces of Zentrum I suppose)

True.

Btw, here's the 1990 and 1995 results:
1990
Turnout 71.8
SPD 50.0
CDU 36.7
FDP 5.8
Greens 5.0
other 2.5
Greens finally entered NRW Landtag after this election.

1995
Turnout 64.0
SPD 46.0
CDU 37.7
Greens 10.0
FDP 4.0
other 2.3
FDP out of parliament, SPD majority broken after 20 years, SPD-Green coalition.

2000
Turnout 56.7
other 3.3
remainder see above really

[minionofmidas]

Lots of people split their votes, CDU direct vote, FDP list vote, or SPD direct vote, Green list vote. Helping to ensure the smaller party gets over 5% is a factor in that, but it's not the only one.
For one thing, quite a few voters haven't fully grasped the system. Some are perhaps not aware that the really important vote is the list vote (which in Bundestag elections is labelled Zweitstimme, secondary vote).
But most importantly lots of people would like to split their vote evenly down the middle but that is just not possible. And splitting it this way round appears more sensible than the other way round. Although when you think about it, the SPD (or CDU) vote involved serves to get your local SPD (or CDU) candidate elected, but at the expense of another candidate of the same party, not the opposition. Or if he's got a safe list position anyways, not even that.

[minionofmidas]

In fifties NRW used to be CDU stringhold IRRC (traces of Zentrum I suppose)

1947
turnout 67.3
CDU 37.6
SPD 32.0
KPD 14.0
Z 9.8
FDP 5.9

1950
turnout 72.3
CDU 36.9
SPD 32.3
FDP 12.1
Z 7.5
KPD 5.5

1954
turnout 72.6
CDU 41.3
SPD 34.5
FDP 11.5
Z 4.0
KPD 3.8

1958
turnout 76.6
CDU 50.5
SPD 39.2
FDP 7.1

1962
turnout 73.4
CDU 46.4
SPD 43.3
FDP 6.8

1966
turnout 76.5
SPD 49.5
CDU 42.8
FDP 7.4

1970
turnout 73.5
CDU 46.3
SPD 46.1
FDP 5.5

1975
turnout 86.1
CDU 47.1
SPD 45.1
FDP 6.7

1980
turnout 80.1
SPD 48.2
CDU 43.2
FDP 4.9
Green 3.0

1985
turnout 75.3
SPD 52.1
CDU 36.5
FDP 6.0
Green 4.6

KPD - Communist Party of Germany.
Z - Center Party. Yes, they existed after 1945 as well. In fact, they still exist. They haven't been winning anything at all for ages, sorta like the US Prohibition Party.
According to NRW state law, any party that crosses 33% in one district is exempt from the 5% threshold, and the Zentrum managed to do that in 1954 (thanks to the CDU not standing in one district.)
The state really swung against the CDU in the 80s.

[minionofmidas]

barring some unforseen problem, it looks like the CDU os cruising to victory, right?

Looks like it, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

I would say a combination of popular SPD incumbent Johannes Rau (PM from 1978-98), lack of a decent CDU challenger and opposition bonus against the CDU/FDP federal government.
From what I've heard they ran very good election campaigns. The SPD successfully labelled itself THE NRW party, promoting social justice and government help for the declining coal and steel industries in the Ruhr area

From the 80s to the mid-90s the SPD generally did (much) better in state elections than in federal or local ones in NRW.

Very interesting. Thanks

One important factor is the decline of the CDU in its former urban strongholds, the more bourgeois catholic cities like Münster, Bonn, Aachen, now the Greens' NRW strongholds alongside Cologne and Bielefeld.
Aachen, and IIRC Bonn as well, elected an SPD mayor for the first time ever in 1994, and they held onto it in the otherwise catastrophic 1999 local elections (and in 2004 as well!)
Bonn and Münster were two of the three direct seats the SPD gained in 2002 (the third was the more conservative of the two Stuttgart seats).

[minionofmidas]

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Partly because of the growing universities. IIRC in Münster more than 20% of the population are students. The cities got less Catholic and the urban Catholics became less conservative.

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I think that was mostly due to the FDP actively campaigning for Erststimmen. In Bonn and Münster the SPD candidates won their seats with just 40% of the vote.

The FDP candidates in those two constituencies were Guido Westerwelle and Jürgen W Möllemann, after all.

[minionofmidas]

What do you believe this means for Schroder in the next general election? I'm guessing that this is an indication that the CDU could have the strength to fell Schroder.

Also when are the next federal elections in Germany?

Fall 2006.
It could...either by a razor-thin margin or on turnout difference - which is how they win many of their state election victories. I'm pretty sure the PDS will be back in parliament in 2006, so there's also the off chance of a hung parliament. (YES!!! CHAOS!!! I LOVE IT!!! )

[minionofmidas]

It could...either by a razor-thin margin or on turnout difference - which is how they win many of their state election victories. I'm pretty sure the PDS will be back in parliament in 2006, so there's also the off chance of a hung parliament. (YES!!! CHAOS!!! I LOVE IT!!! )

You anarchist you!

Do you really want a grand coalition? *shudder*

No...not really...then again: how stable would it be?

[minionofmidas]

Yawn...no movement whatsoever...except that the FDP is lookign worryingly good...do you have a link to poll details or something? I'd like to know some no. of undecideds etc figures.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the TV debate worked wonders for the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein.

Unfortunately, people already know Steinbrück...not to mention that he's boring as ...

[minionofmidas]

2000 results by constituency:

[minionofmidas]

However, it seems they've changed constituency boundaries for this election.
http://home.arcor.de/urcom/Download/pdf/NRW05.pdf has restatements of results to new boundaries.
Here's a map: http://www.im.nrw.de/bue/doks/wahlen/karte_nrw.pdf

[minionofmidas]

Darker shade means over 50% of the vote.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not familiar with Essen, although I suppose it's gonna be the same thing as in Cologne.

In Cologne, that's basically Lindenthal. It's the most bourgeois, toryish part of the city. That said, the CDU would likely not be winning it if it wasn't for the Greens splitting the vote. It's pretty close to the Uni, and I think the studentish/bohemian area of Sülz is in the district.

[minionofmidas]

After checking my own link...
the CDU district in Essen is abolished in the redistricting.
The CDU's lead over the SPD in Cologne II is larger than the Green lead over the FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Except for much of Cologne and parts of Ostwestfalen, the SPD is reduced to a solid Ruhr belt from Moers to Hamm.
I'm saddened by the bad Green showing, and incensed at that frivolous notion of new elections...the election result itself does not matter much to me. I expected that. Anyways, I offered it in cosmic tradeoff for our promotion beforehands.

[minionofmidas]

...the election result itself does not matter much to me. I expected that. Anyways, I offered it in cosmic tradeoff for our promotion beforehands.

So cosmic tradeoff really works? Hmm, Hansa Rostock was relegated...
Does that mean a certain politician from MV will be quite successful?

No, she's really from Hamburg.

[minionofmidas]

Map:

Looking over me family connections in NRW...

My father's parents were both born in Dortmund (not sure which constituency) which remains SPD.
My father and his 5 siblings were born, and my grandparents lived until quite recently, and my grandfather is buried, and my uncle Günther still lives, in Soest I constituency, safe CDU even before the election.
My grandmom now lives, and so does my aunt Doris, in Erftkreis II constituency, which fell to the CDU on a big swing this time around. It's Rüttgers' own constituency, btw.
My cousin Katrin lives in one of the Rhein-Sieg constituencies, the densely settled one just South of Cologne. Safe CDU.
My uncle Jochen and his wife live in Moers, in the weternmost constituency of the SPD Ruhr belt.
My cousin Peter lives in Duisburg somewhere, don't know which constituency. Anyways they're all safe SPD.
My aunt Angela lives in Cologne, in the Vingst ghetto which is in the safe SPD Cologne VI constituency.
Oh, and when I lived in Cologne for two years when I was about twenty, I lived in Cologne VII which also remains in SPD hands.
On these figures the SPD is up 5-3.