If Memphis Were Given to Mississippi

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Tennessee's 9th District, right on the border, were given to Mississippi, Tennessee would be the most Republican state in the nation outside of Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.  However, Mississippi would suddenly be a competitive state that Romney would have won by a margin comparable to North Carolina (Cook PVI of R+3 or 53-47 expected GOP win).

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Interesting!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

More Republican than Utah? Fascinating, if true. But won't matter since Hillary will sweep every county here in 2016.

Utah was one of the four I said it wouldn't be more Republican than.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

More Republican than Utah? Fascinating, if true. But won't matter since Hillary will sweep every county here in 2016.

Utah was one of the four I said it wouldn't be more Republican than.

Sorry, I read that wrongly. Definitely interesting, but I wonder how long it would last until WV surpassed it.

Probably not long.  I have hypothetical TN at R+15, and WV is R+13 (and trending fast).  R+14 Arkansas could also be interesting for that.  R+13 Kentucky and R+14 Alabama might already be maxed out.  Real Tennessee is R+12.

[Skill and Chance]

More Republican than Utah? Fascinating, if true. But won't matter since Hillary will sweep every county here in 2016.

Utah was one of the four I said it wouldn't be more Republican than.

Sorry, I read that wrongly. Definitely interesting, but I wonder how long it would last until WV surpassed it.

Probably not long.  I have hypothetical TN at R+15, and WV is R+13 (and trending fast).  R+14 Arkansas could also be interesting for that.  R+13 Kentucky and R+14 Alabama might already be maxed out.  Real Tennessee is R+12.

Alabama is probably maxed out, but Kentucky?  There's plenty more trending left for the rural areas to do there.  I actually don't think real Tennessee or Arkansas are maxed out yet either.  Arkansas presumably peaks higher because it is less diverse.  Also worth noting that Louisiana might have maxed out R (presidentially at least) in 2008?

[RI]

If you give Shelby County to Mississippi, here's how each state would've voted recently:

Mississippi
2012: 51.08% R, 48.00% D
2008: 51.34% R, 47.86% D
2004: 55.12% R, 44.13% D
2000: 53.69% R, 44.71% D

Tennessee
2012: 63.50% R, 34.86% D
2008: 60.70% R, 37.82% D
2004: 59.54% R, 39.76% D
2000: 52.90% R, 45.49% D

[bagelman]

If you give Shelby County to Mississippi, here's how each state would've voted recently:

Mississippi
2012: 51.08% R, 48.00% D
2008: 51.34% R, 47.86% D
2004: 55.12% R, 44.13% D
2000: 53.69% R, 44.71% D

Tennessee
2012: 63.50% R, 34.86% D
2008: 60.70% R, 37.82% D
2004: 59.54% R, 39.76% D
2000: 52.90% R, 45.49% D

Wow, although the state still clearly leans GOP, MS would be counted as a possible swing state with the voting trends. Amazing what happens when you add just one urban county.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If you give Shelby County to Mississippi, here's how each state would've voted recently:

Mississippi
2012: 51.08% R, 48.00% D
2008: 51.34% R, 47.86% D
2004: 55.12% R, 44.13% D
2000: 53.69% R, 44.71% D

Tennessee
2012: 63.50% R, 34.86% D
2008: 60.70% R, 37.82% D
2004: 59.54% R, 39.76% D
2000: 52.90% R, 45.49% D

Wow, although the state still clearly leans GOP, MS would be counted as a possible swing state with the voting trends. Amazing what happens when you add just one urban county.

And that is even with adding the entire county, including the highly-GOP Eastern part (which is in the 8th district).  Adding only the part of Shelby County in the 9th would have made MS even closer in 2012 (still not enough to put Obama over the top, though).  Basically, Mississippi would be an even more polarized version of already inelastic North Carolina.

[Figueira]

Mississippi is already closer than most people think. It's just not considered a potential swing state because it's rather famously inelastic.

[NeverAgain]

[ElectionsGuy]

If TN-09 were given to Mississippi:

Romney: 764,379 (49.6%)
Obama: 763,589 (49.5%)

and Tennessee...

Romney: 1,408,697 (64.0%)
Obama: 760,069 (34.5%)

Amazing. If TN-09 was drawn just a little bit differently Mississippi would've been won by Obama.