Is Bernie-mentum dead?

[Abraham Reagan]

For all the talk about Trump maybe reaching his ceiling, it seems like Sanders has found his ceiling, on the national level at around 20-25%. He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention. There doesn't really seem to be much room for him to grow between now and the primaries. Especially considering his failed minority outreach.

[ElectionsGuy]

What do you mean he's hit a ceiling? Just because multiple polls show him at that percentage now doesn't mean he can't grow more. The Clinton machine is collapsing, Bernie has plenty of time and will to grow.

[Maxwell]

If Biden jumps into the race, I could see Bernie take a lead in national polls for a couple weeks.

[Yelnoc]

This early in the cycle, plenty of people still aren't paying attention. Let's wait until the post-October debate polls come out before passing any judgments.

[Blue3]

Excitement for Bernie has shifted to excitement for Biden.

Also, Bernie himself has seemed rather drained in the last week or two, like the campaign is burning himself out too quickly.

[eric82oslo]

For all the talk about Trump maybe reaching his ceiling, it seems like Sanders has found his ceiling, on the national level at around 20-25%. He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention. There doesn't really seem to be much room for him to grow between now and the primaries. Especially considering his failed minority outreach.

Now everything depends on the debates from October onwards. If he can hold his own then I think he could be pretty dangerous. Yet remember that even though Obama won most debates, it was always by a hair's breath as Hillary was lightening sharp as well. Everyone else (except of John Edwards that is) were absolute dwarfs though and especially so Biden. Biden in a debate should basically be another verb of self-imploding (probably in the future it will be).

[/]

What do you mean he's hit a ceiling? Just because multiple polls show him at that percentage now doesn't mean he can't grow more. The Clinton machine is collapsing, Bernie has plenty of time and will to grow.

This.

Also, does this graph suggest Berniementum has collapsed?

[Crumpets]

For all the talk about Trump maybe reaching his ceiling, it seems like Sanders has found his ceiling, on the national level at around 20-25%. He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention. There doesn't really seem to be much room for him to grow between now and the primaries. Especially considering his failed minority outreach.

I agree in part, but I would phrase it differently. Bernie at 20-25% is basically the new normal, but obviously there's room to vary, both up and down; it is actually possible for Democrats other than Hillary to have gaffes/scandals. At this point, if Biden gets in, the race gets closer. If he doesn't, Hillary regains some lost ground. Until the debates, that's really the only dynamic in this race.

[Figueira]

If Biden jumps into the race, I could see Bernie take a lead in national polls for a couple weeks.

I'm not sure about that. I think part of the reason he's doing so well is because Hillary is seen as inevitable, so people aren't "wasting their vote" by backing a lesser candidate. If he had been running in 2008, for example, he wouldn't have gotten nearly this much traction. If the race turns into a close race between Hillary in Biden, some Sanders supporters might switch to one of those two.

[The Other Castro]

Who are you, Harry Enten?

[Eraserhead]

He's consistently improved his position. It's gradual movement which is for the best.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

[DrScholl]

It was always going to be short lived.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Just LOL at the timing of this thread. Until today the closest poll we had in Iowa was Sanders down 19. Now we have a poll where he's down only 7 from a polling firm rated A+ by 538. Epic fail.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Just LOL at the timing of this thread. Until today the closest poll we had in Iowa was Sanders down 19. Now we have a poll where he's down only 7 from a polling firm rated A+ by 538. Epic fail.

Bernie-mentum is dead. Long live Bernie-memtum.

[Figueira]

Yeah, saying that it will stop eventually is a pretty reasonable statement. But saying that it's dead now is ridiculous.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

[DrScholl]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

It's really not even that will be the issue, the issue is that Sanders comes off as incredibly weak. If he let random troublemakers push him off stage, he'll let the Republican nominee run all over him in the debates and on the campaign trail. Being socialist is the least of his problems.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

It's really not even that will be the issue, the issue is that Sanders comes off as incredibly weak. If he let random troublemakers push him off stage, he'll let the Republican nominee run all over him in the debates and on the campaign trail. Being socialist is the least of his problems.

I know that now that Hillary told BLM to screw off, the new talking points are that Sanders didn't stand up enough to BLM after the month of attacks that he was too mean to them.

But those weren't even his events. And he'll be fine debating Republicans.

[DrScholl]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

It's really not even that will be the issue, the issue is that Sanders comes off as incredibly weak. If he let random troublemakers push him off stage, he'll let the Republican nominee run all over him in the debates and on the campaign trail. Being socialist is the least of his problems.

I know that now that Hillary told BLM to screw off, the new talking points are that Sanders didn't stand up enough to BLM after the month of attacks that he was too mean to them.

But those weren't even his events. And he'll be fine debating Republicans.

So because it wasn't his event, it was okay for him to allow himself to be pushed off stage? That is not good campaigning at all. I'm not seeing much evidence that he could win a debate, but we will see what happens in October in the primary debate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

It's really not even that will be the issue, the issue is that Sanders comes off as incredibly weak. If he let random troublemakers push him off stage, he'll let the Republican nominee run all over him in the debates and on the campaign trail. Being socialist is the least of his problems.

I know that now that Hillary told BLM to screw off, the new talking points are that Sanders didn't stand up enough to BLM after the month of attacks that he was too mean to them.

But those weren't even his events. And he'll be fine debating Republicans.

So because it wasn't his event, it was okay for him to allow himself to be pushed off stage? That is not good campaigning at all. I'm not seeing much evidence that he could win a debate, but we will see what happens in October in the primary debate.

At Netroots, the moderator wasn't doing his job, and the Seattle situation was a lose-lose situation no matter what once the bullies got the mike. Sanders hasn't had an issue at any of his own events, only at other events.

It's really crazy how the argument has gone from Sanders doesn't understand BLM to Sanders shouldn't have let BLM take the stage at events that weren't his.

[eric82oslo]

He's had tons of exposure and his message has received widespread attention.

Not really. He's gotten only 1/5th the media coverage of Trump. The media has been really ignoring him in the hope he'll go away.

Bernie's a guy that enough Democrats believe can't win, and they don't want to hand over the WH to the GOP.  That's Bernie's problem.  It's also probably the reality of the situation.

In NH, he beats Trump by 9, while Mrs. inevitable only beats Trump by 2.

Once the "socialist" issue becomes more prominent, that will change, at least nationally.

It's really not even that will be the issue, the issue is that Sanders comes off as incredibly weak. If he let random troublemakers push him off stage, he'll let the Republican nominee run all over him in the debates and on the campaign trail. Being socialist is the least of his problems.

What a Trumpish comment. Only billionaires think Sanders is weak. This is what people like and want. Honorable, decent people don't want the exuberant style of Trump, given to them on a golden plate, they want the humble style of Sanders. It was a genious move - very, very, very genious - to back down when BLM came along. What else should he have done? Starting a fist-fight?

[DrScholl]

At Netroots, the moderator wasn't doing his job, and the Seattle situation was a lose-lose situation no matter what once the bullies got the mike. Sanders hasn't had an issue at any of his own events, only at other events.

It's really crazy how the argument has gone from Sanders doesn't understand BLM to Sanders shouldn't have let BLM take the stage at events that weren't his.

No one really knows what Black Lives Matter wants, so that's not what I'm talking about. My point is that you don't let hecklers take over.

What a Trumpish comment. Only billionaires think Sanders is weak. This is what people like and want. Honorable, decent people don't want the exuberant style of Trump, given to them on a golden plate, they want the humble style of Sanders. It was a genious move - very, very, very genious - to back down when BLM came along. What else should he have done? Starting a fist-fight?

There is a difference between honorable and weak. I very seriously doubt that Sanders staged that event in order to look good, he simply just did not know what to do. He shouldn't have stepped back and if they persisted, security should have been called.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

At Netroots, the moderator wasn't doing his job, and the Seattle situation was a lose-lose situation no matter what once the bullies got the mike. Sanders hasn't had an issue at any of his own events, only at other events.

It's really crazy how the argument has gone from Sanders doesn't understand BLM to Sanders shouldn't have let BLM take the stage at events that weren't his.

No one really knows what Black Lives Matter wants, so that's not what I'm talking about. My point is that you don't let hecklers take over.

What a Trumpish comment. Only billionaires think Sanders is weak. This is what people like and want. Honorable, decent people don't want the exuberant style of Trump, given to them on a golden plate, they want the humble style of Sanders. It was a genious move - very, very, very genious - to back down when BLM came along. What else should he have done? Starting a fist-fight?

There is a difference between honorable and weak. I very seriously doubt that Sanders staged that event in order to look good, he simply just did not know what to do. He shouldn't have stepped back and if they persisted, security should have been called.

At NN, the moderator gave the protesters the stage. The idea of calling security on them is ridiculous. At Seattle, Sanders assumed he would get to speak again, but the protesters refused, and the event organizers announced the event was over.

It's really ridiculous how BLM has been used as a club against Sanders first claiming he doesn't get it, and not that he's weak.