How could Republicans win without Ohio?

[Nym90]

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Interestingly this is the only state that either party, in this case the GOP, has ever carried in every election that they've won throughout the entire "current" two party era of Dem vs. GOP since 1856. (The longest streak of voting for every winning Democrat belongs to the trio of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Minnesota, which no victorious Democrat has failed to win since 1916.)

Here are the most plausible maps I can come up with for a GOP win without Ohio in 2016.

Jeb Bush/Pat Toomey vs. Hillary Clinton/Sherrod Brown. Ohio and Pennsylvania are both close, but the running mates manage to carry each for their tickets, producing a GOP win 277-261 with both states voting the opposite of how they would be expected to go in a close race.

Jeb Bush/Brian Sandoval vs. Hillary Clinton/Sherrod Brown

Again, Brown wins Ohio for the Dems, but Sandoval carries Nevada and Bush is able to win 273-265 without either Pennsylvania or Ohio.

Scott Walker/Kelly Ayotte vs. Hillary Clinton/Sherrod Brown

Ayotte brings New Hampshire, and Walker's "favorite son" status manages to barely win Wisconsin, thus enabling him to overcome Brown carrying Ohio for the Dems, and also to not need Iowa or Nevada like Bush did. Walker wins 271-267.

Scott Walker vs. Hillary Clinton, regardless of running mates

A huge union effort delivers Ohio for Hillary, but Walker's "home region advantage" bleeds across the border enough to carry Iowa, thus making New Hampshire (and Ohio) unnecessary. 273-265 for Walker.

Notice that Colorado in particular is a necessary component of all four GOP maps. Pretty hard to envision a scenario where a Republican could win without either Ohio or Colorado.

[Ljube]

No way.

This, or some other combination including Virginia and excluding NH/IA is the only plausible map.

[OSR stands with Israel]

In 2004 they would have won without Ohio if they won they took Wisconsin

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I can't see the Democrats carrying Ohio and losing Pennsylvania.

[Figueira]

I can't see the Democrats carrying Ohio and losing Pennsylvania.

"I can't see the Republicans carrying Missouri and losing Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana."--someone in 2007.

I don't think it's likely either, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility.

[DemPGH]

I can't see the Democrat winning Ohio and losing Iowa, so I guess that's out. Pennsylvania is out - again, SW PA has largely trended with WV, but SW PA is in major decline, so it won't make up nearly enough of the difference. Forget Wisconsin also, especially if the Dem wins OH.

I think it's get back to NH, VA, NV depending upon how many EVs are needed. It's a pretty tough map without OH for the GOP. If a guy like Kasich wins OH governor pretty easily, and Dem governors of OH these days are almost unheard of, winning OH is utterly crucial.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I can't see the Democrat winning Ohio and losing Iowa, so I guess that's out. Pennsylvania is out - again, SW PA has largely trended with WV, but SW PA is in major decline, so it won't make up nearly enough of the difference. Forget Wisconsin also, especially if the Dem wins OH.

I think it's get back to NH, VA, NV depending upon how many EVs are needed. It's a pretty tough map without OH for the GOP. If a guy like Kasich wins OH governor pretty easily, and Dem governors of OH these days are almost unheard of, winning OH is utterly crucial.

Carter won OH and lost IA in 1976, even though IA was slightly better than average for McGovern in 1972.

[Skill and Chance]

I can't see the Democrat winning Ohio and losing Iowa, so I guess that's out. Pennsylvania is out - again, SW PA has largely trended with WV, but SW PA is in major decline, so it won't make up nearly enough of the difference. Forget Wisconsin also, especially if the Dem wins OH.

I think it's get back to NH, VA, NV depending upon how many EVs are needed. It's a pretty tough map without OH for the GOP. If a guy like Kasich wins OH governor pretty easily, and Dem governors of OH these days are almost unheard of, winning OH is utterly crucial.

Carter won OH and lost IA in 1976, even though IA was slightly better than average for McGovern in 1972.

IA is so hard for me to figure out.  It looks like core New Deal Coalition state that should have slowly slipped away, but it's Dem trend has all been post-1980.

[TDAS04]

The chances are extremely slim.

[ElectionsGuy]

No joke I was actually thinking about this very same scenario today hours before you started this thread. Creepy stuff.

I think this is the most likely scenario:

273-265 Republicans. I can't imagine Pennsylvania flipping before Ohio, ever.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The most likely scenario is Romney+FL+PA+IA+CO for a 270-268 win.  But, Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably related enough for it to be tough to win PA without OH.  An alternative would be FL, CO, IA, and two of the following three: WI, MN, VA.

[Higgs]

The most likely scenario is Romney+FL+PA+IA+CO for a 270-268 win.  But, Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably related enough for it to be tough to win PA without OH.  An alternative would be FL, CO, IA, and two of the following three: WI, MN, VA.

Yeah I really don't see Republicans winning PA without winning OH

[TJ in Oregon]

The most likely scenario is Romney+FL+PA+IA+CO for a 270-268 win.  But, Ohio and Pennsylvania are probably related enough for it to be tough to win PA without OH.  An alternative would be FL, CO, IA, and two of the following three: WI, MN, VA.

Yeah I really don't see Republicans winning PA without winning OH

The only way I can see it happening is some kind of local issue in either state that drives their voting patterns to diverge. Say, if Philadelphia was hit head on by a hurricane or something of that sort. Otherwise, the people in OH and PA are just too similar for the demographics behind their voting patters to switch.

[Nym90]

I can't see the Democrat winning Ohio and losing Iowa, so I guess that's out. Pennsylvania is out - again, SW PA has largely trended with WV, but SW PA is in major decline, so it won't make up nearly enough of the difference. Forget Wisconsin also, especially if the Dem wins OH.

I think it's get back to NH, VA, NV depending upon how many EVs are needed. It's a pretty tough map without OH for the GOP. If a guy like Kasich wins OH governor pretty easily, and Dem governors of OH these days are almost unheard of, winning OH is utterly crucial.

Carter won OH and lost IA in 1976, even though IA was slightly better than average for McGovern in 1972.

IA is so hard for me to figure out.  It looks like core New Deal Coalition state that should have slowly slipped away, but it's Dem trend has all been post-1980.

Iowa does have an odd voting history, with seemingly random swings against the national tide.

In 1932 it was almost right at the national average, despite having been where Hoover was born and raised.

But in 1936 FDR won it by significantly less than in 1932, thus it was now a pretty solid Republican state. This continued in 1940 and 1944, when Willkie and Dewey carried it.

In 1948 however it goes back to nearly the national average and Truman wins it.

Then in 1952 it's back to strong Republican again, Eisenhower carrying it by significantly more than his national margin.

In 1956, back to swing state status again, Eisenhower winning it by a lot less than in 1952.

1960, back to solid Republican, Nixon wins easily, by only a few points less than Eisenhower.

1964, swing state once more, goes for Johnson by nearly his national average.

1968, back to Republican, Nixon wins quite easily.

1972, now Dem leaning, as Nixon doesn't win by much more than in 1968.

1976, back to GOP leaning as Ford carries it. This continues in 1980 as Reagan wins by more than his national average.

In 1984 though it's a pretty solid Dem state, as Reagan's victory margin is less than in 1980. Then in 1988 it's one of Dukakis's best states, hence very Democratic.

1992, back to swing state status, Clinton wins by less than Dukakis.

Iowa has finally calmed down in the past two decades, and behaved as bellwether (1996 and 2000) to a slightly Dem leaning state (since 2004).

[Former Democrat]

They can't! But PA is winnable even if OH goes slightly blue but VA will be slightly blue next year! IA CO NV PA OH NH FL are the swing states!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win Latino corridor of NV; CO and Pa, but GOP has to have OH.

[Kingpoleon]

All of the above. Perhaps, if Republicans win statewide offices in Minnesota and/or Virginia and Democrats beat Pence, this map is a possibility:

273 - 265 GOP Victory

It's geographically balanced, which makes it look even better to me.

[Nyvin]

All of the above. Perhaps, if Republicans win statewide offices in Minnesota and/or Virginia and Democrats beat Pence, this map is a possibility:

273 - 265 GOP Victory

It's geographically balanced, which makes it look even better to me.

The Democrats lose New Mexico but win Indiana??

What happened?   Did Republicans suddenly start winning 70% of the Hispanic vote or something?

[ScottieF]

This seems to be the most plausible scenario.

[Clark Kent]

Slim GOP victory here:

With New Hampshire and Pennsylvania:

With New Mexico and Nevada, but without Pennsylvania:

[pho]

There are no realistic scenarios under which the Republican can win without Ohio. You may as well try to find a realistic scenario where the Democrat wins without Minnesota.

[Xing]

There are plenty of ways that the GOP could mathematically get to 270 without Ohio, like this one:

Are there any plausible scenarios in which they win while losing Ohio? No, not unless 2016 is truly a realigning election. If they lose Ohio, they almost certainly lose Pennsylvania, and probably Nevada, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire as well. Even if they win Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia (it's unlikely they'd get all three if they lost Ohio), they still couldn't win.

[Higgs]

There are plenty of ways that the GOP could mathematically get to 270 without Ohio, like this one:

Are there any plausible scenarios in which they win while losing Ohio? No, not unless 2016 is truly a realigning election. If they lose Ohio, they almost certainly lose Pennsylvania, and probably Nevada, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire as well. Even if they win Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia (it's unlikely they'd get all three if they lost Ohio), they still couldn't win.

They don't even win in that one

[Nym90]

This seems to be the most plausible scenario.

I agree that's probably the most likely. This map could result if the GOP makes inroads with white voters in general, especially suburban whites, and Latinos, but the union vote and black vote are still strong for Hillary enabling her to carry Ohio  (presumably narrowly) as well as Pennsylvania.

Not too likely, but possible. I could see a Rubio vs. Clinton race resulting in this map.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

This seems to be the most plausible scenario.

I agree that's probably the most likely. This map could result if the GOP makes inroads with white voters in general, especially suburban whites, and Latinos, but the union vote and black vote are still strong for Hillary enabling her to carry Ohio  (presumably narrowly) as well as Pennsylvania.

Not too likely, but possible. I could see a Rubio vs. Clinton race resulting in this map.

If the GOP makes further inroads with Hispanics and Whites, wouldn't California be closer than 60% D?