If it's Clinton vs. Trump

[Crumpets]

What will the trend map look like? I assume Southwestern states will trend Democratic from increased Hispanic turnout and working-class white states will trend Republican. Something like this, maybe?

[Skill and Chance]

The inland South strikes me as much more into Trump than Romney.  Also, I would be shocked if New England or the West Coast trended to Trump.  NY and NJ probably would because of Sandy, but otherwise I think the trend is fundamentally urban vs. rural.

[Kingpoleon]

Trump wouldn't lose Arkansas. Considering how extreme Republicans are the vast majority in Florida, I wouldn't be surprised if he drove turnout up there.

[Crumpets]

Trump wouldn't lose Arkansas. Considering how extreme Republicans are the vast majority in Florida, I wouldn't be surprised if he drove turnout up there.

It's supposed to be a trend map, with 40% shading corresponding to between a 10 and 15 point trend relative to the national swing. In order for Clinton to win Arkansas with this trend map, she'd have to carry the national popular vote by double-digits.

[bobloblaw]

Trump wouldn't lose Arkansas. Considering how extreme Republicans are the vast majority in Florida, I wouldn't be surprised if he drove turnout up there.

It's supposed to be a trend map, with 40% shading corresponding to between a 10 and 15 point trend relative to the national swing. In order for Clinton to win Arkansas with this trend map, she'd have to carry the national popular vote by double-digits.

Your pics of Hillary are from the period "Hillary Goldwater Girl". Not Hillary "Shrill Corrupt Hag" that she is today.

[Higgs]

Trump wouldn't lose Arkansas. Considering how extreme Republicans are the vast majority in Florida, I wouldn't be surprised if he drove turnout up there.

It's supposed to be a trend map, with 40% shading corresponding to between a 10 and 15 point trend relative to the national swing. In order for Clinton to win Arkansas with this trend map, she'd have to carry the national popular vote by double-digits.

Your pics of Hillary are from the period "Hillary Goldwater Girl". Not Hillary "Shrill Corrupt Hag" that she is today.

ok...What is your point?

[TJ in Oregon]

Why would states like Wisconsin and Minnesota trend toward Trump, while Trump does worse in states loaded with working class whites like West Virginia and Kentucky? The North/South trend thing only makes sense for areas with Hispanic immigrants.

[dudeabides]

[/]

It's hard to predict what a Clinton-Trump race would look like; it could be anything from a 2012-esque election or a major Clinton landslide.

[EliteLX]

Come on now, let's not lie to ourselves. Atlas undermines the percentage of angry right-leaning or independent or politically-sick 35+ year olds.

Here's trump's worst realistic Tuesday, Nov 8 (Atlas maps are a bi*ch to put together, deal w/ it.)

[RR1997]

Dudeabides, why would Trump lose Kentucky and West Virginia? I'm no fan of Trump, but he would DOMINATE Applachia. He's the perfect fit for the region. His fiscally moderate/socially conservative/anti-immigration rhetoric would be loved by most in the region (especially amongst working-class whites). The states of KY and WV would also trend heavily towards Trump as well.

[madelka]

My guess:

[Torie]

What will the trend map look like? I assume Southwestern states will trend Democratic from increased Hispanic turnout and working-class white states will trend Republican. Something like this, maybe?

So Trump carries PA, Wisconsin, NH, and Minnesota per that map?  Unless you are assuming that the swing is so anti Trump, that it swamps the trend. Whatever.

[Devils30]

Trump would be a disaster. He would win no more working class whites than Romney and get smoked with educated whites. Florida probably goes blue by more than the national vote, considering Obama only won 60% Hispanics and still took state.

[Mr. Illini]

I see no reason why the Northeast would trend toward Trump at all

[bobloblaw]

Trump would be a disaster. He would win no more working class whites than Romney and get smoked with educated whites. Florida probably goes blue by more than the national vote, considering Obama only won 60% Hispanics and still took state.

Trump would do better than Romney.

[Crumpets]

I see no reason why the Northeast would trend toward Trump at all

Well, some states must trend Republican in every election, and it certainly isn't going to be the South or the West. What areas do you see Trump doing relatively better in, compared to the national swing?

[Mr. Illini]

I see no reason why the Northeast would trend toward Trump at all

Well, some states must trend Republican in every election, and it certainly isn't going to be the South or the West. What areas do you see Trump doing relatively better in, compared to the national swing?

I don't think any region needs to see a significant Republican trend with Trump on the ballot. A good prediction shouldn't assume an even split between states trending GOP and states trending D. It should evaluate each region individually, and Trump is a terrible fit for the northeast.

[Crumpets]

I see no reason why the Northeast would trend toward Trump at all

Well, some states must trend Republican in every election, and it certainly isn't going to be the South or the West. What areas do you see Trump doing relatively better in, compared to the national swing?

I don't think any region needs to see a significant Republican trend with Trump on the ballot. A good prediction shouldn't assume an even split between states trending GOP and states trending D. It should evaluate each region individually, and Trump is a terrible fit for the northeast.

No. In every election, roughly half of the states trend D and half trend R. Remember we're talking about trend not swing. In 2012, 23 states trended D and 27 states trended R. In 2008, 28 states trended D and 22 trended Republican. In 2004, it was also 28 D and 22 R. Unless Trump were to overwhelmingly win a large state like California, we can reasonably assume at least 20 states will trend Republican, and at least 20 Democratic.