What percentage of the white vote will Democrats get in 2016?

[Suburbia]

What percentage of the white vote will Democrats get in 2016? Will the Black Lives Matter protest cause problems with the white vote?

[ElectionsGuy]

Less than 40%, more than 35%.

[Higgs]

40%

[Classic Conservative]

0%

[jaichind]

Most likely something like 36-37 if it is going to be a close election as it seems its going to be.

[Mehmentum]

About 40%.

[/]

0%

[Ljube]

Certainly less than 40%.

[Phony Moderate]

What percentage of the married white male vote will they get?

[Crumpets]

I'd say pretty confidently that they'll get almost exactly 50% here in Washington.

[All Along The Watchtower]

38%.

[henster]

37; I think Hillary will get historically low support among white men and I don't think she will do well with white women either. Polls right now are showing her doing no matter than Obama with women overall and worse with white women.

[bobloblaw]

Not only is the % important but so is white turnout. With Bush white turnout will be depressed. I also think black turnout will fall back from 13% of the electorate to 11% and from 97% to 94-95%. That wont make too much of a difference anywhere except NC and possibly VA.

Hillary isnt running as Bill 1996. She is running like Obama. Maximize the leftwing turnout.


Elections that appeal only to the base tend to be close. Like 2004 and 2012. They tend to energize both parties' bases.

[Kingpoleon]

32-40%; an economic recession is likely within the next four years, and of that there is a minority of about a 35% chance that it happens before Election Day, 2016.

[Minnesota Mike]

Can't see them getting less than the 39% Obama got in 2012 (worst Dem white % since Mondale in 1984).  Hillary will win enough white women that I think she will get at least 40% of the total white vote.

[Skill and Chance]

What percentage of the married white male vote will they get?

20-25% probably, basically only those that self-ID as liberal.  For the entire white vote, I'm thinking 38ish%, possibly 40ish% with Biden (although he would get a bit less Hispanic/Asian turnout so it wouldn't be a 2008 repeat).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

37% unless the white women vote Hillary in unprecedented numbers and drive it up
40% if they do

I'm thinking the 37%, because I don't think it's the Clinton narrative that will drive women to the polls for Clinton. It will be the "War on Women" narrative, which hit its apex in 2012, the year Mitt Romney was still able to hit 59% with whites, the most since Ronald Reagan. I don't see it being any more effective in 2016 than it was in '12.

When the big day comes, look at early returns from rural Minnesota, eastern Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin, and northwestern Illinois, the last rural white Democratic area left in the country except New England. If it goes Republican, Clinton will not overperform Obama (who won this area) among whites. It looks to be trending (very) slowly in that direction.

As for married white males, Clinton will massively underperform because this demographic skews older  and older by the year (married Millennials like me are firmly in the minority). I'm saying 25% or less regardless of whether she wins overall.