Rubio Ridge ticket?

[edtorres04]

Does Ridge have enough appeal to carry Pa after all these years?

[dudeabides]

Does Ridge have enough appeal to carry Pa after all these years?

Given the losers who have been Governor since he's left office, probably. But a pro-choice Republican won't be on the ticket.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Ridge would carry PA if he were the PRESIDENTIAL nominee for the GOP.

[Higgs]

I actually think he would be a really good VP pick

[Blue3]

Isn't he past his prime?

[Crumpets]

They would certainly carry Naples, Idaho.

Also, who?

[Suburbia]

I actually think he would be a really good VP pick

I would agree. Ridge would have to get rid of the pro choice issue.

[PPT Spiral]

Someone who was considered in 1996 doesn't have a very good chance of still being considered in 2016.

[/]

Does Ridge have enough appeal to carry Pa after all these years?

Given the losers winners who have been Governor since he's left office, probably. But a pro-choice Republican won't be on the ticket.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It's sort of a Cheney/Biden-esque pick for an up-and-comer. I like it, and I think Rubio is secure enough on the abortion issue that the pro-choice controversy should be put to bed by him saying "We disagree on the issue and I'll be the one making the appointments".

[DrScholl]

He hasn't been elected since 1998, so that pretty much makes any home state effect a non-factor. Also, Paul Ryan didn't do much good in flipping Wisconsin, so the idea that the running mate has much of an effect on flipping their own home state is quite faulty.

[henster]

How many voters in PA even remember Ridge?

[bobloblaw]

Does Ridge have enough appeal to carry Pa after all these years?

538 basically shows that VP picks rarely move the needle enough to carry a state not otherwise carried.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Pro-choice. Out. End of discussion.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Can we please stop obsessing over the irrelevant? Jesus Christ.

[Mister Mets]

I could see Ridge being considered. His strengths (swing state, experience, balance of young Senator with elder statesman, echoes Rubio's message of foreign policy strength) outweigh the negatives (out of office since 2004, pro-choice.)

Someone who was considered in 1996 doesn't have a very good chance of still being considered in 2016.

John Kasich may hope otherwise.

[tmthforu94]

I could see Ridge being considered. His strengths (swing state, experience, balance of young Senator with elder statesman, echoes Rubio's message of foreign policy strength) outweigh the negatives (out of office since 2004, pro-choice.)

Someone who was considered in 1996 doesn't have a very good chance of still being considered in 2016.

John Kasich may hope otherwise.

Kasich ran in 2000, not 1996. Plus he has a very successful and current stint as Governor under his belt. Ridge hasn't had a position for over a decade.

[Flake]

lmao the time to pick him is loooooong gone

[Kingpoleon]

He hasn't been elected since 1998, so that pretty much makes any home state effect a non-factor. Also, Paul Ryan didn't do much good in flipping Wisconsin, so the idea that the running mate has much of an effect on flipping their own home state is quite faulty.

Rep.<Gov.

That said, I hate it when people deny the home state advantage. Is Kasich just so electable he makes Ohio +9% more Republican?

I can almost guarantee you it exists. Examples:

1944: John Bricker(OH)
1952 & 1956: Richard Nixon(CA - lost in 1944, 1948, 1964)
1960: Lyndon Johnson(TX - lost in 1952, 1956)
1968: Edmund Muskie(ME - lost in 1960)
1976: Walter Mondale(MN - +11.5% from 1968)
1980: Walter Mondale(MN - see above)
1980: George Bush(TX - lost in 1968, 1976)
1988: Dan Quayle(IN - Formerly the state of Birch Bayh)
1992: Al Gore(TE - lost in 1976 by Southern Carter)
1996: Al Gore(TE - See above)
2004: John Edwards(NC - +2.0% from 2000)
2008: Sarah Palin(AK - Obama ahead in polling until picked)
2012: Paul Ryan(WI - swung 7% GOP in a year the country swung 2%)

As you can see, the exceptions are as follows:

Gov. Earl Warren
Amb. Lodge
Gov. Agnew
Drtcr. Shriver
Rep. Ferraro
Sen. Bentsen
Rep. Kemp
Rep. Cheney
Sen. Lieberman
Sen. Biden

Biden, Cheney, and Lieberman caused trends in their home state, but not enough to seem abnormal besides what would have been partisan shifting(e. g. 5%). The exceptions were either in a landslide, as in the case of Shriver and Ferraro, when the opposing ticket had someone from the state, as was the case of Bentsen, before 1972, or had never been statewide elected officials.

That said, Ridge has been out of office too long. Maybe Perry or another Representative?

[Mister Mets]

I could see Ridge being considered. His strengths (swing state, experience, balance of young Senator with elder statesman, echoes Rubio's message of foreign policy strength) outweigh the negatives (out of office since 2004, pro-choice.)

Someone who was considered in 1996 doesn't have a very good chance of still being considered in 2016.

John Kasich may hope otherwise.

Kasich ran in 2000, not 1996. Plus he has a very successful and current stint as Governor under his belt. Ridge hasn't had a position for over a decade.

I get that Kasich's in a different position than Rubio.

My point was that he was considered in 1996. At the time, he was a young midwestern congressman who had just become chairman of the budget committee. In some ways he was quite similar to Paul Ryan.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

They would certainly carry Naples, Idaho.

I see what you did there - I had the same thought myself but you beat me to it. (Misread the title that way at first and went, huh?)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He hasn't been elected since 1998, so that pretty much makes any home state effect a non-factor. Also, Paul Ryan didn't do much good in flipping Wisconsin, so the idea that the running mate has much of an effect on flipping their own home state is quite faulty.

Rep.<Gov.

That said, I hate it when people deny the home state advantage. Is Kasich just so electable he makes Ohio +9% more Republican?

I can almost guarantee you it exists. Examples:

1944: John Bricker(OH)
1952 & 1956: Richard Nixon(CA - lost in 1944, 1948, 1964)
1960: Lyndon Johnson(TX - lost in 1952, 1956)
1968: Edmund Muskie(ME - lost in 1960)
1976: Walter Mondale(MN - +11.5% from 1968)
1980: Walter Mondale(MN - see above)
1980: George Bush(TX - lost in 1968, 1976)
1988: Dan Quayle(IN - Formerly the state of Birch Bayh)
1992: Al Gore(TE - lost in 1976 by Southern Carter)
1996: Al Gore(TE - See above)
2004: John Edwards(NC - +2.0% from 2000)
2008: Sarah Palin(AK - Obama ahead in polling until picked)
2012: Paul Ryan(WI - swung 7% GOP in a year the country swung 2%)

As you can see, the exceptions are as follows:

Gov. Earl Warren
Amb. Lodge
Gov. Agnew
Drtcr. Shriver
Rep. Ferraro
Sen. Bentsen
Rep. Kemp
Rep. Cheney
Sen. Lieberman
Sen. Biden

Biden, Cheney, and Lieberman caused trends in their home state, but not enough to seem abnormal besides what would have been partisan shifting(e. g. 5%). The exceptions were either in a landslide, as in the case of Shriver and Ferraro, when the opposing ticket had someone from the state, as was the case of Bentsen, before 1972, or had never been statewide elected officials.

That said, Ridge has been out of office too long. Maybe Perry or another Representative?

Home-state advantage is really difficult to prove, let alone the extent of it. You need to compare national and regional swings. Did they over-perform in one state over others in the region? Look at Paul Ryan, yes, the swing in WI was almost 7%, but it was 6% in MI, 4% in MN and 12% in IN. The industrial mid-west swung against Obama but he still held them. I would argue there's no real evidence that Ryan's presence meant much.
 
No doubt parochialism has a role, but I have no doubt that McCain would have won AK, noting that the Palin pick was essentially when Obama was at one of his strongest points.

Oh and Carter won TN in 1976 by 13% - Clinton/Gore won it in by 5% and then 2.5%. In fact, Carter did better in AR in that election than Clinton did in 1992 - 30% margin vs less than 18%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

to subconsciously make people think of Ruby Ridge?   interesting strategy.   people forget that it happened under GHWB and not under Clinton.

[Maxwell]

Can we please stop obsessing over the irrelevant? Jesus Christ.

BUT HILLARY CLINTON COULD WIN MISSOURI IF DURR DURR DURR

WHAT ABOUT STEVE BESHEAR FOR DURR DURR DURR

IDK WEST VIRGINIA HAS DEMOCRATIC ROOTS DURR DURR DURR

[Bureaucat]

Too close to Ruby Ridge for the gun lover fringe.