Is Fiorina gaining Jeb's supporters?
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  Is Fiorina gaining Jeb's supporters?
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Author Topic: Is Fiorina gaining Jeb's supporters?  (Read 784 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: August 30, 2015, 02:09:24 PM »

I'm looking at the HuffPost's averages and I noticed this pattern I removed everyone except for Bush and Fiorina. Bush is the bluish purple and Fiorina is the orange. Right as Fiorina started surging, Jeb started falling.

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Badger
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2015, 02:35:12 PM »

Good eye, but i'd like to see a graph to include kasich as i bet it is quite similar.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2015, 02:40:45 PM »

Good eye, but i'd like to see a graph to include kasich as i bet it is quite similar.

Here you go, Kasich has been added but it may be hard to see, he is the grey line. And when it comes to percentages when Jeb was at his peak (July 12th) Jeb averaged 13.7% Kasich and Fiorina both received 2.0% support

Now it averages like this: Bush 8.0%, Fiorina 5.8%, Kasich 4.1% meaning Jeb lost 5.7% while Fiorina gained 3.8% and Kasich gained 2.1% for a total of 5.9% which shows that 97% of Kasich and Fiorina's growth came from former Jeb supporters.

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RFayette
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2015, 02:55:09 PM »

Good eye, but i'd like to see a graph to include kasich as i bet it is quite similar.

Here you go, Kasich has been added but it may be hard to see, he is the grey line. And when it comes to percentages when Jeb was at his peak (July 12th) Jeb averaged 13.7% Kasich and Fiorina both received 2.0% support

Now it averages like this: Bush 8.0%, Fiorina 5.8%, Kasich 4.1% meaning Jeb lost 5.7% while Fiorina gained 3.8% and Kasich gained 2.1% for a total of 5.9% which shows that 97% of Kasich and Fiorina's growth came from former Jeb supporters.


I wouldn't say that.  Given how fluid this race has been, many supporters likely switched between all sorts of different candidates, so we can't really say on the data alone that it's only Jeb backers switching to Kasich/Fiorina, though I do think it's reasonable to say that's true for a majority of them.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2015, 02:59:46 PM »

Remember, Walker also fell and Carson rose.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2015, 03:01:25 PM »

You can make the graph clearer by clicking on 'Create My Own' and unchecking the 'Polls' checkbox.

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2015, 03:03:53 PM »

Remember, Walker also fell and Carson rose.

And here is their comparison, Walker is pink and Carson is the tealish color. Right when Walker started falling he was at 11.3% on average and Carson at 6.4% now it's flipped with Carson at 11.6% and Walker at 4.7%

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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2015, 03:07:52 PM »

I'd imagine ex Paultards like myself fit in there somewhere too. But I imagine Kasich has their support over Fiorina.
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