Presidential succession: When will it happen again?

[Sir Mohamed]

Between 1841 and 1974 we had a vice president succeeding to the presidency at least each second decade (1841, 1850, 1865, 1881, 1901, 1923, 1945, 1963 and 1974).

Now it hasn't happen for 41 years. Is it likely to happen again within the next two decades?

[sparkey]

Basically, you're asking how likely it is that a President will die. Two main possibilities:
1. Assassination. Obviously, security is much better now than in the time of James A. Garfield, so the risk here has been reduced, but can't be ruled out entirely.
2. Death by natural causes. One thing I've noticed about the 2016 election is a greater number of elderly candidates: Clinton is 67, Biden is 72, Sanders is 73, Trump is 69, etc. With ages that high up, the likelihood of death by natural causes increases a lot.

There are other possibilities too:
3. Resignation. Some huge scandal or disability or something.
4. Accidental death. So Air Force One hasn't crashed, and here's to hoping that it won't.

[Figueira]

Clinton is 67, Biden is 72, Sanders is 73, Trump is 69, etc

Clinton is the only one of those people with a real chance of getting elected. The only other person who has much of a chance is Rubio, who is pretty young.

[President Johnson]

I think it won't happen in the next decades. The most likely reason for a vice president to step in via succession would be a resignation or impeachment of a president.

It's not likely for a president to die in office for a couple of reasons: Life expectancy increased in the last decades; presidents are much better protected since JFK and the attempted assasination of Ronald Reagan and health issues play a major role in campaigns. It would be very difficult to get elected today with the condition of FDR in 1944 (without the wheelchair; FDR was very sick in 1944/45).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think it won't happen in the next decades. The most likely reason for a vice president to step in via succession would be a resignation or impeachment of a president.

It's not likely for a president to die in office for a couple of reasons: Life expectancy increased in the last decades; presidents are much better protected since JFK and the attempted assasination of Ronald Reagan and health issues play a major role in campaigns. It would be very difficult to get elected today with the condition of FDR in 1944 (without the wheelchair; FDR was very sick in 1944/45).

Also, presidents are tending to be elected a bit younger now than a few decades ago.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I think it won't happen in the next decades. The most likely reason for a vice president to step in via succession would be a resignation or impeachment of a president.

It's not likely for a president to die in office for a couple of reasons: Life expectancy increased in the last decades; presidents are much better protected since JFK and the attempted assasination of Ronald Reagan and health issues play a major role in campaigns. It would be very difficult to get elected today with the condition of FDR in 1944 (without the wheelchair; FDR was very sick in 1944/45).

Also, presidents are tending to be elected a bit younger now than a few decades ago.

Is this true? Reagan was the oldest president ever elected, 4 presidents ago, and Kennedy was the youngest, 9 presidents ago.

[Mister Mets]

I think in the current environment, death is less likely than severe health problems or a President resigning in disgrace.

The secret service has gotten very good at avoiding assassinations, and Americans are living longer (to say nothing of Presidents, who tend to have excellent medical care.) Although in a world where Joe Biden and Jerry Brown are considered potential Presidential nominees, it's possible that we'll have an older President, which comes with a greater chance of death.

Things that were fatal decades ago might not kill Presidents now, but could leave them incapacitated. That could lead to a resignation for medical reasons.

There's more surveillance and less media gatekeepers, so if a President engages in wrongdoing, the odds are higher that there will be some kind of proof, and that would reach the general public.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Hilary is reelected in 2020 her VP will propel to presidency, we are due for a Latino anyways. CASTRO will be fine. But Bullock, Booker, Heinrich or Koster will be good too.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Hilary is reelected in 2020 her VP will propel to presidency, we are due for a Latino anyways. CASTRO will be fine. But Bullock, Booker, Heinrich or Koster will be good too.

I think Tim Kaine is the most likely running mate for Hillary.