Will Trump win the GOP nomination in 2016?

[Higgs]

No

[The Mikado]

I think Trump has the largest single potential of any GOP candidate. That potential might be a 25% chance at the nomination.

The best chance for blocking Trump involves Jeb Bush's campaign sinking and his supporters going to Rubio. Jeb is a catastrophic candidate and if he is the anti-Trump Trump has this. Jeb Bush is far and away the weakest candidate in the race.

[Why]

No, Trump will not win the GOP nomination. He is too divisive and not really conservative enough. At best he will keep his 20-30% of support through February, but I expect his support to be waning by November- December.

[mvd10]

No. He might even have the best chance of getting the nomination, but that still is a 25% chance at most in my opinion. Nate Silver believes Trump has no chance at all and he has been right about quite a lot of things and he can back it with data so perhaps Trump really doesn't have a chance.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

It appears Donald Trump's main competition in the top tier is Ben Carson, so obviously yes.

All other candidates will continue to fail to gain traction.

Correct....
Trump will be the nominee,sadly- but will not be sad when Hillary mops the floor with him...

[dudeabides]

It appears Donald Trump's main competition in the top tier is Ben Carson, so obviously yes.

All other candidates will continue to fail to gain traction.

Correct....
Trump will be the nominee,sadly- but will not be sad when Hillary mops the floor with him...

I hope your party nominates Biden if the idiots in my party nominate Trump. Why? Biden is far better than Hillary; he's at least ethical and smart.

I don't understand how Trump has the support he has. He doesn't love this country, he isn't smart, and his policies are racist and would destroy the middle class completely. I don't have kids, if I did, I'd teach them to judge people on merit, not on how they look. Mr. Trump is teaching folks to do the opposite. If I had a daughter, I'd encourage her to grow up, become educated, and if she wanted to marry someone, don't worry about their money, only worry that he/she is a good person. Mr. Trump's wife is a poor role model for America's women, she's done the opposite. Finally, I'd teach my kids to read, Mr. Trump's supporters are ignorant of the facts.

Mr. Trump is an evil man, he is a selfish man, he is running for President because he can't help but be in the spotlight. He hates ordinary people, he judges people on looks, he is everything this country is not.

[Peeperkorn]

No, Trump will not become the nominee. So far, the only candidates I can imagine getting nominated are Jeb Bush or John Kasich.

lol

[°Leprechaun]

Be careful what you guess. You could be wrong.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP Establishment will pull out all the stops to deny Trump the nomination, and they will succeed.

You do have a point, cause even Trump has lately said that he at best has a 20-30% chance of suceeding in his quest, and that while being up at least 3-1 against everyone else. If not even the greatest narcisist in the entire world does believe in himself, then there must be something seriously wrong.

I do not believe that Trump would be a weaker GE candidate than any of the others, by and large.  I think that this is the perception, however, and the GOP Establishment is going to ram home to all its elected officials of how this could cost them their seat, cost the GOP the Senate, cost them their Governorship, their state legislative majorities, etc.  This appeal could work to many, because Trump really hasn't broken through in GE polling yet. 

I am predicting that there will be intense pressure for the GOP candidates to support Bush, the Establishment fave.  The arguments will be compelling, as they will be INSIDER arguments.  In return, I believe that there will be something for everyone.  I would expect Ted Cruz to be the VP candidate.  I would expect Marco Rubio to drop his Presidential run and go back to running for re-election in FL, after being offered a high place in the GOP Senate leadership.  (I would predict that Rubio would become Senate Majority Whip, replacing John Cornyn, whom Bush would appoint Attorney General if elected.)  I would also predict that high-profile appointments will be offered to Rubio and Walker.  The rest of these folks will be dismissed, and will go quietly, perhaps after being offered Ambassadorships.  There will be something for everyone, even for Rand Paul, who also may be elevated in stature in the Senate. 

The Bush-Cruz ticket will be an awkward ticket, but it's gonna happen, because Trump represents a transformation of the GOP that the Establishment is unalterably opposed to.  Such a transformation goes to the heart of Establishment power, and the Establishment wants to keep the power they've attained.  If Trump becomes President, he'll be running the party show like no other President in modern history; he'll be a national Dick Daley.  For the Bushes, the Haley Barbours, the Mitch McConnells, that would never do.

My predictions aren't looking real good now.

I didn't see Jeb! flopping as badly as he did.  But once he was flopping, I didn't see Rubio and Cruz not working things out and getting together, but that didn't happen.  Rubio and Cruz didn't figure out that they need each other's voters to win, as Trump's voters aren't really swayed by events.

I don't see the GOP Establishment's resolve to stop Trump.  Perhaps they can't, but they had needed to do more than they did earlier.  They acted as if the GOP primaries were a two (2) division race; the Establishment Division and the Outsider Division, with the division winners meeting in the playoffs.  That's where they're at now. 

[The Other Castro]

Trump will not be the nominee, but neither will Bush.

Well, I was half right.

[The Mikado]

I think Trump has the largest single potential of any GOP candidate. That potential might be a 25% chance at the nomination.

The best chance for blocking Trump involves Jeb Bush's campaign sinking and his supporters going to Rubio. Jeb is a catastrophic candidate and if he is the anti-Trump Trump has this. Jeb Bush is far and away the weakest candidate in the race.

I'm very pleased with how this turned out. Good job, me of half a year ago.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I will pay that. Not a bad prediction from September.

Trump really is the "Carolina Panthers" of the 2016 Election.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I will pay that. Not a bad prediction from September.

Trump really is the "Carolina Panthers" of the 2016 Election.

Close, but Trump doesn't lose in prime time to an over the hill individual on their way out of the league. Trump keeps pushing his wacky celebrations thoughout the finale.

Proudly answered Yes on this poll. Nice to see about 15 have today... (was 24/40 when bumped I believe, and I saw it a couple hours after the bump).