IA-Loras College: D: Clinton 48% Sanders 23%; R: Trump 25% Carson 18% Bush 10%

[Mr. Morden]

Loras College poll of Iowa, conducted Aug. 24-27:

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Trump-and-Carson-on-Top,-Loras-College-Poll-Finds.aspx

Trump 25%
Carson 18%
Bush 10%
Cruz 7%
Walker 6%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 4%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 3%
Christie 2%
Paul 2%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%
Pataki 0%

UPDATE: Democratic #s have been added:

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Leads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx

Clinton 48%
Sanders 23%
Biden 16%
O’Malley 4%
Chafee 1%
Webb 0%

[Mr. Morden]

I think 6% might be Walker's weakest showing in Iowa in all of 2015.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs: http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/8a/8ace12e8-87c1-4e47-a590-b6c21c00e0ef.pdf

Who leads among…?

very conservative: Carson
somewhat conservative: Trump
moderate: Trump
age 16-34: Trump
age 35-49: Trump
age 50-64: Carson
age 65+: Trump
USA is on the right track: Bush
USA is on the wrong track: Trump
income less than $100k: Trump
income between $100k and $200k: Trump
income over $200k: Carson/Trump tie
Catholic: Trump
Protestant: Trump
Evangelical: Carson
married: Trump
single: Carson/Trump tie
CD1: Trump
CD2: Carson
CD3: Trump
CD4: Trump

The poll included two Muslims who identified as Republicans.  1 supported Trump, and the other was undecided.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Loras College varies in terms of accuracy. If true though, 3rd is a great showing for Bush in Iowa.

[Maxwell]

Yea, I don't believe Bush is ahead of Cruz.

[Skye]

Yea, I don't believe Bush is ahead of Cruz.

So, we've reached a world where this statement is logical.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No way Jeb! Is 3rd place in Iowa...

[Blair]

Walker on 6% is the shocking number, if he gets that result and then fails in NH I could see him struggling

[King]

rand and walker declining every day

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Walker on 6% is the shocking number, if he gets that result and then fails in NH I could see him struggling

I honestly think he'll drop out after he spectacularly fails in Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic #s have been added:

http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Leads-but-Sanders-Gains,-Loras-College-Pol.aspx

Clinton 48%
Sanders 23%
Biden 16%
O’Malley 4%
Chafee 1%
Webb 0%

[Torie]

Hillary seems to have stabilized for the moment. It may take an indictment to stop her inevitability. Her hold on blacks, Hispanics and women is pretty firm. The email affair has not changed that.

[Gallium]

It looks like Selzer is using a different likely voter screen to everyone else.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It looks like Selzer is using a different likely voter screen to everyone else.

Or maybe they got a bad sample. It happens even to the best.

[Eraserhead]

It looks like Selzer is using a different likely voter screen to everyone else.

Or maybe they got a bad sample. It happens even to the best.

More likely is that they know how to poll a caucus and Loras College doesn't. The Des Moines Register is the one with the proven track record when it comes to polling this race.

[Likely Voter]

The Loras result is generally in line to the latest polls IA from Suffolk, CNN, PPP, Gravis and Marist. It is possible that the DMR poll is superior and has a unique insight that the others do not. But it still is an outlier.

[Maxwell]

Selzer is an A+ pollster. Loras is pretty horrendous.

[Gallium]

The Loras result is generally in line to the latest polls IA from Suffolk, CNN, PPP, Gravis and Marist. It is possible that the DMR poll is superior and has a unique insight that the others do not. But it still is an outlier.

Selzer's always been uniquely astute at predicting the voter universe in Iowa. The 2014 midterms are an obvious example, and in 2008 she correctly predicted the margin of Obama's victory by assuming that the majority of caucus goers would be first-time caucus-goers and that a sizable number would be independents.

I assume she's weighting a higher number of independents and first-time caucus-goers than other pollsters again, which helps Sanders and hurts Clinton. That said it remains to be seen whether a) the majority of independents partake in the Democratic caucuses when it's the GOP field that is sucking up all the media oxygen (unlike 2008) and b) Sanders can build the sort of GOTV operation Obama had to get first time voters out on caucus night. I'm not sure we'll know till the winter.