Will John McCain lose to Kelli Ward (or anybody else) in the primary?

[ElectionsGuy]

I say yes. 60% chance he loses. I know its early, but the anti-establishment fervor this year is incredible. Donald Trump visits Arizona one more time and keeps on bashing McCain, and I can see him going down. He's extremely unpopular among Republicans, and the state party actually censured him!

What say you?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ward will not defeat him. I think Salmon, Schweikert, or Brewer would though.

[Skye]

Although it's hard, I can picture him losing the primary. Against a strong opponent. Maybe McConnell will give some advice on how to survive comfortably.

[Green Line]

This article suggests that McCain has gotten rid of most of his opponents within the state party and has cemented his grip.  I do not think he will lose.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/john-mccain-arizona-tea-party-113849

[136or142]

The most recent poll (possibly the only poll) showed him trailing Ward something like 40-35%. Ron Gunzberger at politics1.com said he couldn't believe that poll though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The only reliable poll so far is from PPP, which has McCain leading Ward 44-31.

[Maxwell]

The only reliable poll so far is from PPP, which has McCain leading Ward 44-31.

That's a really really bad margin for an incumbent in a primary to start. Generally, Tea Party primaries start with the Incumbent up 30-50. If he's only up 13, this is a massive problem when conservative voters start paying attention.

[TDAS04]

Probably not, but it's certainly possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably not, but it's certainly possible.

Aside from Pa; FL; WI& IL as battleground states for senate: OH; AZ, MO & NH are too.

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably not, but it's certainly possible.

Aside from Pa; FL; WI& IL as battleground states for senate: OH; AZ, MO & NH are too.

Happy birthday!

He has a birthday with no age. Its official, he's a bot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thnx

[Xing]

I doubt it. While McCain could potentially lose a primary to the right Republican, Ward is not that Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump is the nominee; not an establishment GOPer; then the terrain for Congressional GOPers becomes much more difficult; and safer GOPers can go down like Burr & McCain as well as Portman. Ky maybe in play as well.

I hope Ward beats him in primary; Kirkpatrick is only 5 pts down.

[Leinad]

Probably not. But if he does, the odds of a Democratic senate in 2017 will go up by about 15%.

To many conservatives, libertarians, conservatarians, tea partiers, and general wacko-birds (as McCain calls us), McCain wouldn't be much better than a Democrat.

Look at the Republican polls: Trump's doing great, and Carson and Cruz are also picking up steam. You've got a guy who basically called the Senate Majority leader, of his own party, a liar to his face, a guy who has never, ever even ran for elected office, ever, and doesn't even have business or military experience, and a guy who insults basically everyone and their mother--that's your top 3 in Iowa, and 3 of the top candidates overall. The other two candidates trending upward are someone who hasn't held elected office--Fiorina's not as anti-establishment as those 3 I named, but an outsider nonetheless, and a moderate Governor--not an outsider like the other 4, but Kasich's rise is an indicator of how weak the anointed establishment candidate (Jeb!) is.

All in all, it's clear the voters are mad as hell, and want something different. This is a revolution within the party, a peasant's uprising of sorts, but instead of violence they're attacking with Trump, Carson, Cruz, to a lesser extent Fiorina, and even some of the bourgeois, to continue the analogy, are trying a regime change as well--via a soothing, harmless midwesterner.

The point: conservative voters don't give a damn whether McCain, or any other moderate Republicans, win or lose against Democrats in the general election. The grassroots of the party want to see people who agree with them, like Kelli Ward, get elected over the establishment who continually disappoints them by being consistently crap.

Normal Republican vs. Democrat analysis doesn't apply as much this time around--it's Republican Establishment vs. Conservative/Tea Party/Grassroots as much as it is Republican vs. Democrat. You've got a similar thing going on across the aisle with Bernie Sanders, but the Democrats have been less crap so their grassroots hates their establishment a little less.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This article suggests that McCain has gotten rid of most of his opponents within the state party and has cemented his grip.  I do not think he will lose.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/john-mccain-arizona-tea-party-113849

A Dave Brat can always come out of nowhere.

[RogueBeaver]

No, he'll nuke the nutter like he did Hayworth.

[SATW]

No, he'll nuke the nutter like he did Hayworth.

[Bojack Horseman]

No, and Richard Mourdock was a fluke. I will say that Ann Kirkpatrick is a fool for giving up her House seat to run against John McCain though.

[Kingpoleon]

Nope. McCain being primaried by a lot of people helps to purge the state party of extremism. If Salmon also runs, McCain can overpower both of his challengers and easily outspend Kirkpatrick.

McCain's best option is for a heavily contested Democratic & Republican primary where they lose a portion of their elected officials.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, will this primary take place at the same time as the presidential primary? I imagine Ward could easily coopt Trump's, err, message.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, will this primary take place at the same time as the presidential primary? I imagine Ward could easily coopt Trump's, err, message.

No. Arizona will likely hold its state primaries in August like it did in 2014. The presidential primary is tentatively scheduled for March 22.

[Joe Republic]

I know its early, but the anti-establishment fervor this year is incredible.

November 2016 spoiler alert:  ~85% of incumbents get re-elected.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Flake is more vulnerable in 2018 to a tea party challenge. Once he loses; Dems will be able to defeat Flake. But Johnson; Toomey & Portman are ripe for picking as well as Kirk.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I know its early, but the anti-establishment fervor this year is incredible.

November 2016 spoiler alert:  ~85% of incumbents get re-elected.

An anti-incumbent year will happen eventually....maybe 2016 will be it, you just never know.

[ElectionsGuy]

I know its early, but the anti-establishment fervor this year is incredible.

November 2016 spoiler alert:  ~85% of incumbents get re-elected.

And John McCain is ripe picking for the 15%.