Far northern New York

[Figueira]

Most of Saint Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex Counties seem to vote like Vermont for the most part. Are they culturally an extension of Vermont, Western Mass, etc., or is there something else going on there?

[Nyvin]

Western New Hampshire does the same thing, as does the Berkshires in Massachusetts.   I think it's something about the area,  very white liberal hippy-ish culture.

[Torie]

Well, the Plattsburgh area in the NE corner of the map should definitely be added to the Birkenstock Belt (liberal whites in both towns and countryside). (The blue spot to the south contiguous with Vermont across Lake Champlain could also be added.) And there is that blue splotch in the southern portion of the map, but it is more of a Birkenstock island, than part of the Belt, since it's not really cleanly contiguous with the belt (it can be added to the Belt if the majority of the intervening area between it and Vermont turns dark blue from light blue as a belt prong jutting west). St. Lawrence does not fit, because there the pattern is that the Obama voters are more urban based. That white splotch near Cornwall, Canada does not count, because it is an Indian reservation. In the map below, the blue precincts are 60% or more 2008 Obama  (of the two party vote), the light blue 55%-60%, the white areas 50%-55% Obama, and the red areas went for McCain. To be Birkenstock worthy, the area must be at least 60% Obama, heavily white (all of this area other than the Indian reservation is heavily white), and involve both town and rural whites.

[Sol]

Why are you obsessed with this phrase of "Birkenstock Belt?"

[Torie]

Why are you obsessed with this phrase of "Birkenstock Belt?"

Obsessed is a rather strong term, but I just find the whole phenomenon fascinating (liberal rural whites, now so much a rarity in most places), and I live right at the edge of the zone now, and in fact two wards in my town are sort of the same way. I was visiting Lenox in the Berkshires to see the Edith Wharton home. It's a very wealthy place, just gorgeous, very cultural, and voted 76% for Obama 2008. Interestingly, the Berkshires did trend very heavily to Baker to help elect him governor even though still heavily Democratic  (about a 10 percent trend, but still 65% Democratic), so obviously much of it, but certainly not all of it,  is cultural rather than economic per se.

Also I am beginning to suspect that much of the perimeters of the belt are defined by landscape (hilly and dead bang gorgeous, stunningly so really, and lush, but with seasons, and still not all that far from major cosmopolitan cities).

And one thing one does not do in the Birkenstock belt, is flaunt wealth. No, rather you mask it. And I like that after living all my life in Tinsel Town, and environs.

[Torie]

OK, scratch the NE corner of NY from the belt. Interestingly the recreational area of Greene County (Wyndham and environs), is decidedly Pub.

[homelycooking]

Notice that the greatest differential in the candidates' vote percentage between the New York and the New England side of the border follows the crest of the Taconic Mountains, and the least differential exists on either side of Lake Champlain.

I'm not sure what category of people or geographies "Birkenstock" is meant to signify, other than a vague association with the prevalence of liberals in rural Northwest New England. It is not the best term to describe a blue-collar city with a manufacturing pedigree such as Pittsfield, for example, which happens to be the largest city or town in the "Belt" in Torie's map. Rather, as Averroës alluded, it's a diverse region, taken as a whole. Within the so-called belt are old mill-towns, resort communities, college towns and their periphery, and remote rural communities with weak historical or cultural connections to any of the above. It's just too simplistic to apply a label like that to an area with multiple currents of political culture. Perhaps "GOP Estrangement Zone" is a bit clunkier, but it's surely more apt.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The southern end of the D region here is home to the Adirondack ski/resort towns, as noted by Averroes's point 2 above. The rural townships right along the northern border, though, are pretty flat, farming country with a lot of French-Canadian ancestry. I think the vote here may be more like some parts of rural Maine, where French-Canadian communities right along the border are fairly Democratic.

Another factor possibly of some relevance is that one of the main manufacturing employers in this area is the passenger railcar factory in Plattsburgh, which is located there due to the MTA's in-state contracting rules for subway cars, but also gets contracts from Amtrak, the Chicago el, and so on. One can imagine this contributing to a different attitude towards the big city, government, etc. than is typical for upstate.

[cinyc]

The southern end of the D region here is home to the Adirondack ski/resort towns, as noted by Averroes's point 2 above. The rural townships right along the northern border, though, are pretty flat, farming country with a lot of French-Canadian ancestry. I think the vote here may be more like some parts of rural Maine, where French-Canadian communities right along the border are fairly Democratic.

There's actually more plain-old French ancestry than French-Canadian ancestry in the North Country.   French is actually the top ancestry listed in Clinton and Franklin Counties' total ancestry data, and is second to Irish in St. Lawrence and Essex Counties.  Note that people can list more than one ancestry in the ACS, and the first ancestry listed data might slightly differ from the total ancestry data, probably putting French near the top in the latter two counties.  Nevertheless, you're right that Northeasterners of French descent tend to vote Democratic these days.

I also think the three eastern counties (Clinton/Franklin/Essex) are in the Burlington-Plattsburgh TV market and get a healthy dose of Vermont news on the local newscasts.  Their media has more in common with Vermont than St. Lawrence's.  Also, those counties have a healthy number of state government workers, whether working at the many state universities or prisons, so many people are not necessarily averse to big government.  And recreation and tourism employ many people, especially in Essex and Southern Franklin Counties.  Resort areas have trended against Republicans in recent years.

[Linus Van Pelt]

There's actually more plain-old French ancestry than French-Canadian ancestry in the North Country.   French is actually the top ancestry listed in Clinton and Franklin Counties' total ancestry data, and is second to Irish in St. Lawrence and Essex Counties.  Note that people can list more than one ancestry in the ACS, and the first ancestry listed data might slightly differ from the total ancestry data, probably putting French near the top in the latter two counties.  Nevertheless, you're right that Northeasterners of French descent tend to vote Democratic these days.

OK, but I would assume that most people in this region who list simply "French" as their ancestry are people whose families came from Canada in the 19th or 20th Century. Of course, ultimately their ancestry is from France. But as far as I know, there has never been a large level of immigration directly from France to the rural Northeast after the end of French colonial rule in the 1760's.

[Figueira]

Notice that the greatest differential in the candidates' vote percentage between the New York and the New England side of the border follows the crest of the Taconic Mountains, and the least differential exists on either side of Lake Champlain.

I'm not sure what category of people or geographies "Birkenstock" is meant to signify, other than a vague association with the prevalence of liberals in rural Northwest New England. It is not the best term to describe a blue-collar city with a manufacturing pedigree such as Pittsfield, for example, which happens to be the largest city or town in the "Belt" in Torie's map. Rather, as Averroës alluded, it's a diverse region, taken as a whole. Within the so-called belt are old mill-towns, resort communities, college towns and their periphery, and remote rural communities with weak historical or cultural connections to any of the above. It's just too simplistic to apply a label like that to an area with multiple currents of political culture. Perhaps "GOP Estrangement Zone" is a bit clunkier, but it's surely more apt.

Yeah, I tend to agree. The region is definitely interesting and worth studying politically, but Torie's analysis is a bit too simplistic.

[Torie]

Great comments, but Pittsfield may not be much of a manufacturing town anymore, and more of an arts and culture town. It did not give the vibe of a manufacturing town when I drove through it last week.

[The Free North]

I think the answer is more multi-factorial than "similar to Vermont." Other NY counties adjacent to the Vermont and Massachusetts border vote markedly less Democratic in presidential elections, as shown in Christopher's map:



Moving west to east, there are a few disproportionately Democratic-voting populations to recognize:

1. In central St. Lawrence County, Canton and Potsdam have large university populations (Saint Lawrence University, Clarkson University, SUNY Potsdam, and SUNY Canton).
2. The High Peaks region of the Adirondacks (esp. Lake Placid and Saranac Lake) is a recreational getaway, and not for Branson, MO-types, either, i.e. the kind of place with lots of service workers and where the streets are lined with Subarus and BMWs.
3. The northwest corner of Franklin County is the St. Regis (Akwesasne) Mohawk Reservation.
4. Plattsburgh, NY, the largest city in the region, has a large university population (SUNY Plattsburgh).

Once you've accounted for these groups, you're left with prisons, dairy farms, and handful of decaying mining towns, i.e. not many voters.

Absolutely fascinating map. With that aggregation it looks like VT/West MA are the anomalies in the Northeast...not the other way around which in interesting because of how liberal the region is as a whole.

[The Free North]

Its difficult to describe but having been in both regions there is a tangible difference between Central NY and Central Pennsylvania that seems to fit the divide between more/less conservative as depicted by the map.


Although I have been in both areas quite frequently, could anyone with more knowledge extrapolate on some of the economical differences between both regions? To my untrained eye, they both seem to be experiencing the same type of general decay and slow population drain and remain largely agricultural (especially dairy based in NY). Yet on the whole, the PA region feels much more 'southern' and perhaps more conservative in its demeanor relative to its northern neighbor.

[muon2]

I'm not sure I follow this

OK, scratch the NE corner of NY from the belt. Interestingly the recreational area of Greene County (Wyndham and environs), is decidedly Pub.

after this

I think the answer is more multi-factorial than "similar to Vermont." Other NY counties adjacent to the Vermont and Massachusetts border vote markedly less Democratic in presidential elections, as shown in Christopher's map:



Moving west to east, there are a few disproportionately Democratic-voting populations to recognize:

1. In central St. Lawrence County, Canton and Potsdam have large university populations (Saint Lawrence University, Clarkson University, SUNY Potsdam, and SUNY Canton).
2. The High Peaks region of the Adirondacks (esp. Lake Placid and Saranac Lake) is a recreational getaway, and not for Branson, MO-types, either, i.e. the kind of place with lots of service workers and where the streets are lined with Subarus and BMWs.
3. The northwest corner of Franklin County is the St. Regis (Akwesasne) Mohawk Reservation.
4. Plattsburgh, NY, the largest city in the region, has a large university population (SUNY Plattsburgh).

Once you've accounted for these groups, you're left with prisons, dairy farms, and handful of decaying mining towns, i.e. not many voters.

University towns seem like a perfect match for inclusion in the Belt and based on 1. and 4.above they are a major component of the population. My experience with uni towns is that they are quite dominated by liberal white in the towns and countryside (professors liking some seclusion). Isn't the Hanover NH area (Dartmouth) a driver for its inclusion in the Belt?

[Torie]

Universities fit, and liberal recreational areas fit in the Belt mentality, but government workers in prisons and blue collar manufacturing types do not. So it is a matter of what is driving up the Dem vote in the NE corner of NY. Dartmouth is a part of the belt's expansion into NH, but the belt runs down much of the river valley there next to Vermont.

[homelycooking]

If Pittsfield is truly an "arts and culture" town, it has a much more proletarian flavor than does a city like Northampton or Burlington. There's a considerable amount of economic deprivation in the center of the city, which has a MHI below $20,000, lower levels of educational attainment and a high crime rate. In terms of its large white working class, the city has more in common with Westfield or Bristol, CT than it does with any other city in the "Belt".

[The Free North]

Also I would point out that not all of NW CT belongs in the belt as well.


Towns like Kent certainly do (antique stores on every corner, etc), but the NW corner of the state is actually the most conservative part of CT and many of the communities that may fit inside the belt are scattered throughout the region. I would hasten a guess that median income would be a better determinant of selection which towns should be added as the wealthier parts of the region probably fit the stereotype more so than the old New England style towns that dot Litchfield County.

[Torie]

Also I would point out that not all of NW CT belongs in the belt as well.


Towns like Kent certainly do (antique stores on every corner, etc), but the NW corner of the state is actually the most conservative part of CT and many of the communities that may fit inside the belt are scattered throughout the region. I would hasten a guess that median income would be a better determinant of selection which towns should be added as the wealthier parts of the region probably fit the stereotype more so than the old New England style towns that dot Litchfield County.

Look at my signature. That NW corner of CT is solid blue with everything being over 60% Obama, and most precincts being over 70%. Outside and adjacent to that little area, the McCain vote gets much better.  in CT

[Sol]

Of course, the other important thing to note is that in Massachusetts and New Hampshire (and in parts of Vermont as well), the Democratic-voting culture comes from the fact that these areas were seriously industrialized. Of course these areas have been more successful than most of the rust belt at retooling their economies, but there lies the root of much of rural New England's liberalism as opposed to some Birkenstock Belt nonsense.

[Torie]

Of course, the other important thing to note is that in Massachusetts and New Hampshire (and in parts of Vermont as well), the Democratic-voting culture comes from the fact that these areas were seriously industrialized. Of course these areas have been more successful than most of the rust belt at retooling their economies, but there lies the root of much of rural New England's liberalism as opposed to some Birkenstock Belt nonsense.

Well Manchester, NH was industrial, and retooled, and it is not liberal. And many industrial towns are quite conservative in NH, like Springfield, Mass. The Dem base in New England used to be Catholics (except for Italians), and now Protestants in most of NE vote more Dem than the Catholics do.

[muon2]

Universities fit, and liberal recreational areas fit in the Belt mentality, but government workers in prisons and blue collar manufacturing types do not. So it is a matter of what is driving up the Dem vote in the NE corner of NY. Dartmouth is a part of the belt's expansion into NH, but the belt runs down much of the river valley there next to Vermont.

A look at the data makes it hard to see how Clinton, Franklin, and northern Essex don't fit in with VT. The prison in Essex sits right between Saranac Lake (Franklin and Essex) and Lake Placid whose ski town residents will dominate any vote from the guards, and certainly fit the Birkenstock Belt model as much as any ski town in VT. Clinton NY seems to have a similar, but slightly more rural demographic than Crittenden VT, but otherwise I don't see how to differentiate it from the land across the lake.

[homelycooking]

Of course, the other important thing to note is that in Massachusetts and New Hampshire (and in parts of Vermont as well), the Democratic-voting culture comes from the fact that these areas were seriously industrialized. Of course these areas have been more successful than most of the rust belt at retooling their economies, but there lies the root of much of rural New England's liberalism as opposed to some Birkenstock Belt nonsense.

Torie's argument is one that attempts to geographically delimit a new current of Northeastern liberalism that is distinct from the ethnic politics and urban machines of the early 20th century. This new phenomenon has far more to do with affluence, education and recreation than with industrial geography or sociology, which is, I suppose, the inspiration for Torie's awkward term "Birkenstock belt". There are reasonable critiques to be made as to where the "Belt" begins and ends, and as to which communities are sufficiently or insufficiently "Birkenstock", but not that the phenomenon exists, or that there is a large region of New England in which the Democratic Party has found transformative success in appealing to new demographics.

Moreover, Birkenstock strikes me as a symbol that is too indebted to a political moment of the GWB era - insofar as it was invoked by conservatives to caricature Northeastern liberals as effete and impotent with regard to foreign interventions in the so-called War on Terror, in contrast to Bush's perceived image of resolve and rural toughness - to accurately describe the phenomenon in question. Perhaps "Subaru Belt" would be more appropriate.

I'd appreciate it if Torie could explain exactly what he means by "Birkenstock Belt", in both sociological and electoral terms, so that we aren't guessing quite so much about his intentions.

[Torie]

Universities fit, and liberal recreational areas fit in the Belt mentality, but government workers in prisons and blue collar manufacturing types do not. So it is a matter of what is driving up the Dem vote in the NE corner of NY. Dartmouth is a part of the belt's expansion into NH, but the belt runs down much of the river valley there next to Vermont.

A look at the data makes it hard to see how Clinton, Franklin, and northern Essex don't fit in with VT. The prison in Essex sits right between Saranac Lake (Franklin and Essex) and Lake Placid whose ski town residents will dominate any vote from the guards, and certainly fit the Birkenstock Belt model as much as any ski town in VT. Clinton NY seems to have a similar, but slightly more rural demographic than Crittenden VT, but otherwise I don't see how to differentiate it from the land across the lake.

So it would seem. Although not eligible geographically to be part of the belt anyway, Massena does seem to still be an industrial town however, which would not fit.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Moreover, Birkenstock strikes me as a symbol that is too indebted to a political moment of the GWB era - insofar as it was invoked by conservatives to caricature Northeastern liberals as effete and impotent with regard to foreign interventions in the so-called War on Terror, in contrast to Bush's perceived image of resolve and rural toughness - to accurately describe the phenomenon in question. Perhaps "Subaru Belt" would be more appropriate.

'Vermont: Where even the rednecks drive Volvos.'