Trump vs. Clinton in Your State

[Del Tachi]

Title is self-explanatory

Trump, 52; Clinton, 45

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 55-41

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

[Gass3268]

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

[dudeabides]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

[dudeabides]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Bill didn't even win by that margin Obama didn't win by that margin both in wave years.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Bill didn't even win by that margin Obama didn't win by that margin both in wave years.

50-50 is lower than either of Obama's margins though.

[Mr. Smith]

One of them wins by 49%, not sure who at the moment.

[bagelman]

I live in one of Clinton's '08 primary states. If she wins, it will be because of the blue collar vote and minority voters.

However, most people I talk to, especially white voters, think that:

1. The establishment is corrupt
2. We don't need another Clinton (or Bush) in the White House
3. Trump "tells it like it is"

So it could be a tossup depending on if Clinton can redeem herself in this political atmosphere. As usual, Ohio is a bellwether for the election in general.

[Crumpets]

Pretty close to Cantwell vs. Baumgartner in 2012 (Cantwell won 60.45%-39.55%). I gave Clinton roughly a 5-point swing in Hispanic-heavy areas and a 3-point swing in less Hispanic areas. All in all, maybe 59-38 Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CLINTON 57-40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One of them wins by 49%, not sure who at the moment.

CLINTON will win your state; pretty sure 51/49

[NerdyBohemian]

Clinton 64
Trump 33

Clinton is a perfect fit for RI Democrats but there is a core of inelastic Republican voters in rural and suburban towns. Even Jack Reed, our states most popular politician can't win over everyone, even in wave years.

[bobloblaw]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Nonsense. None of the states will deviate from their PVI. FL's PVI will be no different in 2016 than it was in 2012, 2008, 2004 etc. About R+1

[madelka]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Nonsense. None of the states will deviate from their PVI. FL's PVI will be no different in 2016 than it was in 2012, 2008, 2004 etc. About R+1

Trump will make Florida a lean D state in presidential election years, potentially destroying the Republican party in the state.

My state (California):

Clinton: 65.2%
Trump: 30.8%

Clinton also wins Orange County.

[bobloblaw]

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Nonsense. None of the states will deviate from their PVI. FL's PVI will be no different in 2016 than it was in 2012, 2008, 2004 etc. About R+1

Trump will make Florida a lean D state in presidential election years, potentially destroying the Republican party in the state.

My state (California):

Clinton: 65.2%
Trump: 30.8%

Clinton also wins Orange County.

Wont happen. The GOP is FL is strong and the Dems have no bench there. There are no white GOPers that have significant hispanics in their districts.

Hillary is up over Trump by 4-8 in polling. Those polls are likely correct. Which mean FL would go Hillary between 2-7 points.

[madelka]

If the Republicans nominate Trump, Democrats will pick up that open Senate seat and win Florida by 8 or 9 points. Clinton would crush Trump with Hispanics (probably win them 75-25) and do much better than Obama with Whites. Give it up, there is no path to the presidency for racist candidates like Trump. America is changing, bobloblaw, he'd lose in a landslide.

[bobloblaw]

If the Republicans nominate Trump, Democrats will pick up that open Senate seat and win Florida by 8 or 9 points. Clinton would crush Trump with Hispanics (probably win them 75-25) and do much better than Obama with Whites. Give it up, there is no path to the presidency for racist candidates like Trump. America is changing, bobloblaw, he'd lose in a landslide.

75-25 is not much more than 73-27. In fact that 2 points will translate into .2% nationally in the NPV. Polling shows Hillary is at 34% with whites, worse than Obama. And BTW, border integrity isnt racist.

[madelka]

If the Republicans nominate Trump, Democrats will pick up that open Senate seat and win Florida by 8 or 9 points. Clinton would crush Trump with Hispanics (probably win them 75-25) and do much better than Obama with Whites. Give it up, there is no path to the presidency for racist candidates like Trump. America is changing, bobloblaw, he'd lose in a landslide.

75-25 is not much more than 73-27. In fact that 2 points will translate into .2% nationally in the NPV. Polling shows Hillary is at 34% with whites, worse than Obama. And BTW, border integrity isnt racist.

We are talking about Florida here. And cosidering Bush won the Hispanic vote in Florida in 04, a 75-25 or maybe even 80-20 loss would be pretty devastating for the GOP, yes. And spare me the 'border integrity isn't racist' drivel. You know as well as I do that Trump's supporters are racists and that Trump panders to the racist Republican primary voters.

[dudeabides]

If the Republicans nominate Trump, Democrats will pick up that open Senate seat and win Florida by 8 or 9 points. Clinton would crush Trump with Hispanics (probably win them 75-25) and do much better than Obama with Whites. Give it up, there is no path to the presidency for racist candidates like Trump. America is changing, bobloblaw, he'd lose in a landslide.

Agreed.

Clinton 63% Trump 36%

To put it in perspective:
2012: Obama 58% Romney 40%
2008: Obama 57% McCain 41%
2004: Kerry 52% Bush 46%



Trump would lose traditionally Republican Somerset and Monmouth Counties, he'd barely win in Morris & Cape May Counties, both solid GOP counties (Chris Christie began his career as a Morris County Freeholder) he'd be destroyed in swing Burlington County, and he'd perform as well as past nominees in Hunterdon, Sussex, and Warren Counties - especially Sussex. He'd also under-perform in Western Essex County which is Republican. Keep in mind Chris Christie carried 19 of 21 counties in his re-election bid.

Clinton 50 - Trump 50

I put my county (Volusia) in Dem blue, it's been trending Republican but I think Clinton would win it here due to our growing hispanic community.

Obama won Osceola by about 24 points and St. Lucie County by about 8 points in 2016. Also I could possibly see Duval, Madison, and Sarasota Counties flipping.

Hillary Clinton would absolutely destroy Donald Trump in Florida. My guess is Clinton 57% Trump 42% on a good day for Trump, more likely 60% Clinton - 39% Trump.

Nonsense. None of the states will deviate from their PVI. FL's PVI will be no different in 2016 than it was in 2012, 2008, 2004 etc. About R+1

Trump will make Florida a lean D state in presidential election years, potentially destroying the Republican party in the state.

My state (California):

Clinton: 65.2%
Trump: 30.8%

Clinton also wins Orange County.

Wont happen. The GOP is FL is strong and the Dems have no bench there. There are no white GOPers that have significant hispanics in their districts.

Hillary is up over Trump by 4-8 in polling. Those polls are likely correct. Which mean FL would go Hillary between 2-7 points.

Reasons why Donald Trump would be destroyed in a general election including in Florida and other swing states by double-digits:

1. His position on immigration is in the minority
2. His numbers on trustworthiness will be in the toilet once the opposition research is done
3. He has no real agenda other than on illegal immigration and he barely has one there
4. He is out of touch with ordinary Americans more than any other candidate
5. His position on free trade is in the minority
6. Many Republicans would stay home if he's the nominee (or vote third party like me)
7. His past comments about women's looks will cost him millions of independent female votes
8. Americans are okay with divorce, less so with infidelity
9. Americans have traditionally rejected angry candidates
10. His language towards Hispanics will make him do worse than Romney with Hispanics
11. He can't answer debate questions, he would be destroyed in the general election debates
12. He has no idea about foreign policy
13. Americans won't trust him on the economy because he doesn't understand the economy
14. He flip-flops more than any presidential candidate in history
15. He has illegals working for him, he will be seen as hypocritical
16. His wife will be a liability for him given she hasn't really done anything except pose
17. His unwillingness to stay on topic will leave people wondering if he's mentally there
18. Since he's never held elective office, his experience will come into question
19. His Twitter rants don't look presidential and people will question his fitness for the job
20. His secretive foreign policy will make hawks think he's an isolationist and libertarians think he's some kind of war-monger
21. He will have zero support in the veteran's community after his McCain remarks
22. The GOP won't spend money supporting him in the general election
23. GOP candidates will distance themselves from him, his GOTV efforts will be weak
24. Most voters are angry at D.C. because of the dysfunction, Trump fighting with everyone will make that worse
25. Conservative outside groups won't be supporting him and will focus their efforts on other candidates in congressional and U.S. Senate races
26. Most Americans don't like the tea party, even many Republicans. He's the tea party poster-child, regardless of where most of his support comes from right now.
27. Most Americans will consider him crazy because of the whole birther thing
28. Evangelical Christians will stay home once they see his lifestyle
29. Catholic voters will vote for the Democrats in massive numbers because they won't see him as a compassionate individual
30. Political moderates will view him as too extreme; be it on illegal immigration on the right or as a socialist on everything else
31. He's a poor communicator
32. He looks old and beat-up, that matters
33. Many suburban voters want someone more sophisticated than Trump

[/]

53-45 NC

[pho]

56-44 Trump

[Republican Michigander]

59-38 Hillary, maybe worse.

It would be as bad or worse than McCain's 2008 (57-40) where McCain flat out quit here and announced it publicly.

The best candidate equivalent to Trump I've seen is flamboyant attorney Geoffrey Fieger (Best known as Dr. Jack Kevorkian's attorney) who ran for governor in 1998 as a democrat. Fieger even lost the city of Ann Arbor which is 75% democrat. He won one county and that was it. That was a 65-35 win for John Engler.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Clinton 60 Trump 39