Predict the results by race in a Clinton vs. Trump election

[RR1997]

The title explains it all.

Just for reference, here were the results of the 2012 election by race:

White: 59% GOP/39% DEM
African-American: 93% DEM/6% GOP
Hispanic: 71% DEM/27% GOP
Asian-American: 73% DEM/26% GOP
Other: 58% DEM/38% GOP

Here's my prediction for the racial demographic of a Clinton vs Trump election:

White: 61% GOP/37% DEM
African-American: 93% DEM/6% GOP
Hispanic: 90% DEM/8% GOP
Asian-American: 84% DEM/13% GOP
Other: 80% DEM/16% GOP

Discuss.

[dudeabides]

The title explains it all.

Just for reference, here were the results of the 2012 election by race:

White: 59% GOP/39% DEM
African-American: 93% DEM/6% GOP
Hispanic: 71% DEM/27% GOP
Asian-American: 73% DEM/26% GOP
Other: 58% DEM/38% GOP

Here's my prediction for the racial demographic of a Clinton vs Trump election:

White: 61% GOP/37% DEM
African-American: 93% DEM/6% GOP
Hispanic: 90% DEM/8% GOP
Asian-American: 84% DEM/13% GOP
Other: 80% DEM/16% GOP

Discuss.

White: 51% GOP 48% DEM
African-American: 98% DEM 1% GOP
Hispanic: 95% DEM 4% GOP
Asian-American: 91% DEM 8% GOP
Other: 92% DEM 7% GOP

[ElectionsGuy]

White (70%): 58% Trump, 40% Clinton
Black (12%): 91% Clinton, 8% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 80% Clinton, 18% Trump
Asian (4%): 77% Clinton, 21% Trump
Other (2%): 65% Clinton, 33% Trump

Which equates to roughly a 53-45 Clinton victory.

[bobloblaw]

Ill stand by my prediction that 2016 will NOT be the first election since 1904 where the party in power for two terms increases its share of the  two party popular vote

[/]

The Dems might even win the white vote...

[/]

Ill stand by my prediction that 2016 will NOT be the first election since 1904 where the party in power for two terms increases its share of the  two party popular vote

But neither of the candidates running in 1904 were Donald Trump...

[Ljube]

White (70%): 58% Trump, 40% Clinton
Black (12%): 91% Clinton, 8% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 80% Clinton, 18% Trump
Asian (4%): 77% Clinton, 21% Trump
Other (2%): 65% Clinton, 33% Trump

Which equates to roughly a 53-45 Clinton victory.

White (70%): 65% Trump, 35% Clinton
Black (12%): 85% Clinton, 15% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 70% Clinton, 30% Trump
Asian (4%): 55% Clinton, 45% Trump
Other (2%): 55% Clinton, 45% Trump

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

White - 55-42 Trump
Black - 91-8 Clinton
Hispanic - 79-16 Clinton
Asian - 81-15 Clinton
Other - 64-30 Clinton

[Intell]

White: 55% GOP/43% DEM
Black: 92% DEM/ 7% GOP
Hispanic: 86% DEM/ 13% GOP
Asian: 84% DEM, 14% GOP
Other: 76% DEM, 22% GOP

[madelka]

Whites: 57-40 Trump
Blacks: 90-8 Clinton
Hispanics: 81-17 Trump
Asians and Other: 79-19 Clinton

Results

58,910,846  Trump  (169 EV)
75,502,551  Clinton   (369 EV)

Which means Clinton wins all the Obama 12 states + NC + AZ + IN.  
Texas BARELY stays Republican.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

[Ljube]

There is no way Trump wins fewer whites than Romney.
He is a perfect fit for a white voter.
He will probably get some of the white working class vote.
His absolute floor is somewhere around 61%.

He will also win more blacks than Romney for two reasons:
1) The blacks actually like Trump and they disliked Romney
2) The candidate of the Democratic Party is not black

He will also win close to, or slightly above of the Romney latino vote.
There are two reasons for that:
1) Latinos that voted for Romney are the ones that will vote Republican no matter what (white elites who normally vote republican/conservative)
2) Trump actually offered something to the lower class latinos - jobs

He will also win a fair percentage of the Asian/other vote. These voters are primarily motivated by the economy/jobs message. I have no real evidence here, but I think he'll get close to GWB levels.

[Dardani1997]

White - 71-30 Clinton
Black - 92-8 Clinton
Hispanic - 94-6 Clinton
Asian - 95-5 Clinton
Other - 97-3 Clinton

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

White - 56-40 Trump
Black - 89-8 Clinton (Bill's racism has killed her chances of getting more than Kerry)
Hispanic - 79-16 Clinton
Asian - 81-15 Clinton
Other - 64-30 Clinton

[Kingpoleon]

Trump:
African-American: 15%; turnout 62%
Non-Hispanic White: 56%; turnout 65%
Hispanic: 19.5%; turnout 55%
Asian and Other: 25%; turnout 51%

354: Clinton/Heinrich(54.7%)
184: Trump/Carson(44.1%)
Others: 1.2%

I removed the Others vote proportionally from each of them. According to RCP, this makes NC 50.0-50.0, but it shows a REP win.

[ElectionsGuy]

White (70%): 58% Trump, 40% Clinton, 57% Trump, 41% Clinton
Black (12%): 91% Clinton, 8% Trump, 94% Clinton, 5% Trump
Hispanic (12%): 80% Clinton, 18% Trump
Asian (4%): 77% Clinton, 21% Trump
Other (2%): 65% Clinton, 33% Trump

Which equates to roughly a 53-45 54-44 Clinton victory.

Revised.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Hillary Clinton (D) - 55.6% PV, 346 EVS
Donald Trump (R) - 44.4% PV, 192 EVS


Non-Hispanic White: 65% Trump, 35% Clinton, Turnout- 65%
African-American: 88% Clinton, 12% Trump, Turnout- 63%
Hispanic: 89% Clinton, 11% Trump, Turnout- 60%
Asian & Other: 78% Clinton, 22% Trump, Turnout- 46%

[Mike Thick]

Just for lulz, this is what dudeabides' percentages would yield:

480 EVs, 62.6%
58 EVs, 35.6%

[catographer]

Ill stand by my prediction that 2016 will NOT be the first election since 1904 where the party in power for two terms increases its share of the  two party popular vote

It would be odd by historical standards for three elections to go Democratic 53-46, 51-47, 54-45 (or something). But hey, this is a weird year. Democrats and Republicans rarely nominate super losers, but when they do it bucks trends.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

College educated Whites  54-46 Clinton
Non-College educated Whites  65-35 Trump
African Americans  93-7 Clinton
Hispanic  80-20 Clinton
Asian 75-25 Clinton


National PV Clinton 55.2%-43.1%

Hillary Clinton 358 EV
Donald Trump 180 EV

[LLR]

Whites: 56-44 GOP
A-As: 93-7 Dems
Hispanics: 77-23 Dems
Other: 63-37 Dems

[The Other Castro]

[Meclazine for Israel]

[dspNY]

White 53-45 Trump (he loses a lot of white GOP women to Hillary)
Black 93-7 Hillary
Hispanic 83-16 Hillary
Others 80-20 Hillary